RBN Energy

Thursday, 4/02/2020

Just a few months ago, crude oil producers and marketers were wondering whether there would be enough marine terminal capacity along the Gulf Coast to handle the steadily increasing volumes of crude that would need to be exported over the next few years. Now, with WTI prices hovering around $25/bbl and producers slashing their 2020 drilling plans, expectations of rising U.S. production and exports are out the window. Instead, what may be shaping up is a fierce competition among the owners of existing storage facilities and loading docks to offer the most efficient, lowest-cost access to the water. Today, we continue our series with a look at two large Houston-area facilities: the Houston Fuel Oil Terminal and Seabrook Logistics Marine Terminal.

Daily energy Posts

Tuesday, 01/28/2020
Category:
Financial

After a decade in which unprecedented upstream production growth triggered massive investment in infrastructure to get crude oil, natural gas and NGLs to market, 2020 is a major inflection point for the U.S. midstream industry. The good news is that after peaking at a whopping $37 billion in 2019, midstream capital expenditures are forecast to steeply decline over the next few years as the lion’s share of the infrastructure needed to gather, transport, process, and store current and expected hydrocarbon volumes has already been built or is nearing completion. And, despite continued cutbacks in capex by exploration and production companies, output is still forecast to rise in 2020, which should boost earnings growth for the midstream sector. But all midstream companies aren’t alike, and the prospects for individual entities vary widely because of the specific basins and hubs where they’ve decided to build, acquire, expand or divest. Today, we analyze the headwinds and tailwinds these companies will experience, and how their decisions over the past few years will help determine their prospects.

Monday, 01/27/2020
Category:
Crude Oil

To say that Permian crude oil quality varies is an understatement at best. In fact, there’s as much variety in the crude coming out of West Texas as there is in the arsenal of a major league pitching ace. Handling those varied crude qualities is the challenge of midstream operators, who, like batters facing down a Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez in their prime, need to do the best they can with what they’re given. With the start of spring training only a month away, we begin a series detailing the current mix of Permian crude oil qualities, how pipelines are handling them, and what it means for exports, the end destination for much of today’s incremental Permian oil production. Today, we discuss Permian crude quality variations and the steps new pipelines are taking to deal with it.

Sunday, 01/26/2020
Category:
Natural Gas

The rapid increase of natural gas processing capacity in the Bakken in recent months has helped to ease producers’ growing pains, clearing the way for more crude oil and associated gas to be produced there and more Bakken gas to flow into the Midwest. That good news is countered, however, by bad news for Western Canadian gas producers, whose long-standing pipeline takeaway constraints only worsen as more Bakken gas flows into the Northern Border pipeline that cuts through North Dakota on its way to Chicago and other downstream markets. Today, we continue our series on the fight between Bakken and Western Canadian producers for space on Northern Border with a look at incremental flows into that key pipe.

Thursday, 01/23/2020
Category:
Crude Oil

Transporting crude oil from the lease to refineries and export docks is like a long-distance relay race. The crude oil gathered from several wells is handed off to shuttle or takeaway pipelines, which then pass it on to regional crude hubs like Cushing, OK — from the hubs, crude is transferred to still other pipes. To get the relay going, the developers of crude gathering systems work closely with their takeaway pipeline counterparts to figure out the most efficient way to effect the first baton pass. Today, we continue our series on crude-related infrastructure in the Rockies’ Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin with a look at Outrigger Energy’s existing and planned gathering systems, and their connections to Tallgrass Energy’s still-expanding Pony Express takeaway pipeline.

Wednesday, 01/22/2020
Category:
Natural Gas

After holding above $2/MMBtu in the first half of January, the CME/NYMEX February natural gas futures contract caved in this week, closing Tuesday and Wednesday at $1.895/MMBtu and $1.905/MMBtu, respectively. The last time we saw prices this low was in March 2016. But to see such levels trading in January, typically one of the coldest and highest-demand months of the year, you’d have to go back more than two decades — to 1999. Today, we explain the fundamentals behind the price collapse earlier this week and its implications for the 2020 gas market.

Tuesday, 01/21/2020
Category:
Crude Oil

Fear about supply interruption isn’t the frantic force it used to be in the crude oil market. A deadly confrontation that might have pushed the U.S. and Iran to the verge of war raised the spot Brent crude oil price to above $70/bbl early in the week of January 6. Despite continuing regional concerns, the price quickly subsided. By January 13, Brent spot had fallen to $64.14/bbl, its lowest point since December 3. Before the Shale Era, a U.S.-Iranian face-off may well have launched Brent crude to well over $100/bbl as oil traders blew fuses over the heightened possibility of disruption to Persian Gulf oil production and transportation. There’s nothing like adequacy of supply, globally dispersed, to keep things calm —  or at least calmer than they would have been if the U.S. and Iran had drawn so much sword a dozen years ago. In this blog, we’ll discuss where U.S. crude exports have been heading, how close the oil gets to strategically touchy areas, and whether the market still has reason to worry about disruption to oil supply.

Monday, 01/20/2020
Category:
Natural Gas

Canadian oil and natural gas producers were dancing very much to the same tune as their U.S. counterparts in 2019: reduce capital spending, live within cash flow and improve returns to investors. The only major difference for Canadian gas producers is that they were forced to dance even faster due to abysmal natural gas pricing during the summer of 2019, which cast a very negative pall over the whole sector for the remainder of last year. Although the focus on spending restraint, cash flow and returns has not changed for these producers upon entering 2020, there are encouraging signals that Canadian gas pricing will be materially improved this year, especially during the summer months, supporting higher cash flows and a cautious expansion in capital spending. Today, we examine the drivers behind what might increase capital spending by gas producers and lead to an increase in supplies.

Thursday, 01/16/2020
Category:
Natural Gas Liquids

For a few years now, the Shale Revolution has been opening up development opportunities hardly anyone would have thought possible in the Pre-Shale Era. For example, new crude oil, natural gas and NGL pipelines from the Permian to the Gulf Coast, lots of new fractionators and steam crackers, as well as export terminals for crude, LNG, LPG, ethane and, most recently, ethylene. And here’s another. Thanks to the combination of NGL production growth and new ethylene supply — plus increasing demand for alkylate, an octane-boosting gasoline blendstock — the developer of a novel ethylene-to-alkylate project along the Houston Ship Channel has reached a Final Investment Decision (FID). Today, we discuss how the FID is driven by both supply-side and demand-side trends in the NGL and fuels markets.

Wednesday, 01/15/2020
Category:
Natural Gas

Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) has been through a lot in its 10-plus years of operation. Since its first eastbound-only segments started moving natural gas out of the Rockies in 2008, flows on the pipeline have evolved due to market events, primarily the onset of the Shale Revolution, which has resulted in a surge of gas supplies in the Eastern U.S. and increasing gas-on-gas competition across North America. Rising to the challenge, REX has undergone a number of transformations to adapt to the shifting gas flow patterns and price relationships, including reversing flows on the eastern zone of the pipe to move gas west from Ohio. In 2019, REX was again put to the test, this time on the western end of the pipe, where the bulk of its legacy long-term contracts for eastbound flows out of the Rockies expired, with the last of them rolling off on November 11, 2019. Some of that has since been recontracted, and the in-service of the REX Cheyenne Hub Enhancement and Cheyenne Connector projects could further shore up REX mainline flows. Today, we begin a short series providing an update on REX’s eastbound gas flows and contract changes.

Tuesday, 01/14/2020
Category:
Petroleum Products

Texas consumes far more diesel fuel than any other state and almost as much gasoline as car-crazy California, which also has 10 million more people. The long-distance distribution of refined products within the Lone Star State is handled largely by tanker trucks, but in the past couple of years, midstream companies have been adding a lot of new refined products pipeline capacity, not just to help deliver diesel and gasoline within Texas — including the diesel-hungry Permian Basin — but also to move motor fuels to the Mexican border for export. And more diesel and gasoline pipe capacity is on the way. Today, we discuss the new and expanded refined products pipelines criss-crossing Texas.

Monday, 01/13/2020
Category:
Crude Oil

Occidental Petroleum’s recent acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum made Oxy the #1 producer in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin and gave it a majority stake in Western Midstream Partners, which owns crude-gathering and other midstream assets in the D-J, the Permian and the Marcellus. While Western Midstream’s gathering focus had been on helping Anadarko meet its own midstream needs, Oxy sees the partnership taking on a broader role as a provider of gathering services to third parties as well. Toward that end, Oxy and Western Midstream a few days ago announced a series of agreements designed to allow Western Midstream to operate as an independent company. Today, we continue a series on crude-related infrastructure in the D-J with a look at Western Midstream’s gathering and related assets owned in part by the basin’s largest oil, natural gas and NGL producer.

Sunday, 01/12/2020
Category:
Natural Gas

This year looks like it could be a better one for many Canadian natural gas producers. Like their brethren in the U.S., they have been forced in recent years to increasingly spend within — and even less than — cash flow as other sources of financing have dried up and investors have prioritized better returns over production volume growth. With Canadian gas producers having also faced some of the worst natural gas pricing conditions on record in 2019, far worse than those in the U.S., it is no wonder that Canadian natural gas supplies pulled back in 2019, marking the first down year for overall gas supplies since 2012. Despite what is likely still to be a cash flow and spending constrained environment in 2020, there is the potential for real upside for Western Canadian natural gas supplies this year, especially for the supply that flows into TC Energy’s Nova pipeline system. Today, we consider what may be setting the stage for gas supply gains on the Nova system in 2020 after a somewhat dismal 2019.

Thursday, 01/09/2020
Category:
Natural Gas

Southern California is poised to have greater natural gas supply flexibility this winter, buoyed by improved access to local storage and the completion of repairs on an important inbound pipeline. Ongoing pipeline outages and maintenance had limited flows over the past few years, creating supply constraints that were then compounded by restricted access to the Aliso Canyon storage field. This led to major volatility in gas prices, which spiked as high as $39/MMBtu in July 2018. Recent repairs and regulatory changes aim to alleviate the situation and limit the likelihood of dramatic pricing moves during the 2019-20 winter season. Today, we provide an overview of recent developments in the SoCal gas market.

Wednesday, 01/08/2020
Category:
Natural Gas

After showing relative strength through most of the fall, prices at the UK’s National Balancing Point (NBP) natural gas benchmark collapsed by more than $1/MMBtu in December and have kept falling, and Asia’s Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) index followed suit to some degree. Nevertheless, U.S. LNG export cargoes were at record highs in December as additional liquefaction and export capacity came online last month, including the first LNG export cargoes from the Elba Liquefaction project as well as Freeport LNG’s Train 2. Moreover, U.S. shipments are expected to climb further in the New Year as still more liquefaction trains are completed. While the global price spreads haven’t deterred U.S. exports, they, along with shipping costs, do influence export economics and cargo destinations. Today, we wrap up this series with a look at how LNG export costs interact with global price spreads and impact cargo destinations.

Tuesday, 01/07/2020
Category:
Financial

For much of the 2010s, the U.S. midstream sector has been on a development spree. New or expanded everything — pipelines, gas processing plants, fractionators, storage facilities, liquefaction trains, export terminals and more — all to keep pace with the production gains of the Shale Era. But now, at the start of the 2020s, the build-out frenzy appears to be fizzling and flickering. Midstreamers’ capital spending plans are on the decline, at least for now, as most of the infrastructure needed to handle current and expected volumes for the next few years is either in place or under construction. But that doesn’t mean things won’t stay interesting — far from it. This new decade brings with it a period of midstream-sector strategizing and portfolio rejiggering. Today, we discuss highlights from East Daley Capital’s newly released “Dirty Little Secrets” report about the next phase of midstream strategy.