RBN Energy

Thousands of unionized dockworkers walked off the job at ports along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts October 1 in the first work stoppage for those regions since 1977. Three days later, they’re heading back to work with a tentative deal on wages in hand and an agreement to continue negotiating on other issues through mid-January. The strike didn’t threaten liquid exports like crude oil and LNG but imports of action figures and exports of plastic pellets used to make them — as well as other dry containerized products and feedstocks — hit a brief standstill. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine the potential fallout avoided by the labor agreement.

Analyst Insights

Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.

By Martin King - Monday, 10/07/2024 (3:30 pm)
Report Highlight: Canadian Natgas Billboard

RBN estimates that combined natural gas production of the equity partners in LNG Canada rose 0.22 Bcf/d in August to 2.06 Bcf/d (combined height of the rightmost colored bars in top chart below), 0.32 Bcf/d higher than a year ago and is the third highest combined output for the equity partners to

By Sheela Tobben - Monday, 10/07/2024 (2:30 pm)

Chevron Canada has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its interests in the Athabasca Oil Sands (AOS) Project, the Duvernay shale, and related assets all located in Alberta, CA, to Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL).

Recently Published Reports

Report Title Published
TradeView Daily Data TradeView Daily Data - October 7, 2024 1 hour 56 min ago
NATGAS Billboard NATGAS Billboard - October 7, 2024 9 hours 55 min ago
NATGAS Permian NATGAS Permian - October 7, 2024 11 hours 49 min ago
Chart Toppers Chart Toppers - October 7, 2024 12 hours 4 min ago
TradeView Report TradeView Crude Oil Price Analytics And Differentials - October 4, 2024 1 day 6 hours ago

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Daily Energy Blog

Since 2011, U.S. natural gas liquids (NGL) production has more than tripled, while domestic demand has grown only modestly. Consequently, the only way NGL markets could balance was a dramatic increase in exports. Today, over 70% of U.S. propane production is exported, with the majority going to overseas markets, while other NGLs see varying export levels: 40% for butanes, 25% for natural gasoline, and 18% for ethane. Although U.S. NGL production growth is slowing, we still project an increase of 1.5 MMb/d over the next decade and a half, with 85% of that growth coming from the Permian Basin. As U.S. ethane and LPG production continues to rise, nearly all the export growth is expected to head to the Asia/Pacific region, with a significant portion going to one country: China. But is this outlook for U.S. NGLs realistic? And do we have adequate infrastructure — ranging from gathering systems to processing plants and fractionators, and from export terminals to the right kind of ships — to handle all of these volumes? In one of his hit tunes, Toby Keith clearly identified the problem for us: “Where You Gonna Go? And What Ya Gonna Do When You Get There?” These are key NGL market themes that we'll be exploring at our upcoming NACON conference on October 24 at the Royal Sonesta Hotel in Houston and that we’ll introduce in today’s RBN blog.

For a few days last week, Canada experienced a nationwide shutdown of its rail transportation network — the backbone of its economy. Of the literally thousands of items railed across Canada to consumers and for export to the U.S. and overseas, we consider three important liquid energy commodities — crude oil, propane and butane — that are transported by rail to provide some perspective on the volumes and dollar values that could have been jeopardized by an extended shutdown. In today’s RBN blog, we summarize the short-lived disruption to Canadian and international commerce and tally the impacts that could have been. 

Crude-oil-focused production in the Bakken still hasn’t fully recovered from its pre-COVID high, partly because the western North Dakota shale play continues to face takeaway constraints, especially for natural gas and NGLs. A couple of NGL pipeline projects in the works will certainly help, but will they be enough to enable the Bakken’s increasingly consolidated E&P sector to ramp up its crude oil production? And one more thing: How will the incremental NGLs flowing south on Kinder Morgan’s soon-to-be-repurposed Double H Pipeline find their way to fractionation centers in Conway and Mont Belvieu? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the Bakken’s complicated production-vs.-takeaway conundrum and the ongoing efforts to address it. 

Fast-rising NGL supplies during the early years of the Shale Era fueled excitement about the potential for new petrochemical plants in the U.S., especially ethane-only crackers to make ethylene and other byproducts, along with propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants to make propylene. While 11 new ethane-fed crackers have come online in the U.S. since the mid-2010s and the world’s largest — Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy’s 4.8-billion-lb/year facility — is under construction in Texas, only three of the many PDH projects proposed over the same period were actually built. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at why the initial rush of new PDH project announcements resulted in so few new U.S. plants. 

Mont Belvieu, TX and Conway, KS, are the two most significant U.S. hubs for NGL trading, storage and fractionation, with the much bigger Mont Belvieu hub primarily serving Gulf Coast and export demand, while the smaller Conway hub is focused on Midwest/Great Plains demand, especially for propane. The pricing dynamics between the two hubs are a key indicator of the supply/demand balance between the regions, but they don’t have the same kind of influence over the direction or magnitude of flows as price differential dynamics often do for other energy commodities. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine the gap between the price of the NGL “basket” in Mont Belvieu versus Conway and what that price spread tells us. 

Energy Transfer’s plan to buy WTG Midstream, a West Texas-based and private equity-backed natural gas gatherer and processor, just got a bit less expensive — and not quite so comprehensive. Energy Transfer will still acquire WTG’s network of more than 6,000 miles of gas pipelines, eight processing plants and more, but WTG’s 20% stake in the joint-venture (JV) BANGL pipeline system is no longer part of the deal. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a look at the detour from the original transaction. 

With an announcement in late 2023 by Dow Chemical that it would be undertaking an enormous expansion of its ethylene production site in Fort Saskatchewan, AB, it was immediately clear that Alberta’s ethane supplies would need to increase by a significant 110 Mb/d. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, a deal was signed in February between Dow and Pembina Pipeline Corp. that calls for the midstreamer to provide up to 50 Mb/d of additional ethane supplies and, according to executives at Pembina’s investor day earlier this month, will require the company to invest between C$300 million (US$220 million) and C$500 million (US$367 million) to build out its existing NGL/ethane infrastructure.

Rome wasn’t built in a day and neither were the large, wellhead-to-market natural gas and NGL networks that Phillips 66 and a handful of other midstream empires have assembled — many of them targeting the all-important Permian. Now, P66 has reached an agreement to acquire Pinnacle Midstream, whose associated gas gathering system and gas processing complex in the heart of the Midland Basin nicely complement a host of other gathering and processing assets P66 controls through its majority stake in DCP Midstream. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss P66’s planned purchase of Pinnacle Midstream and what it means for the Permian piece of the acquiring company’s broader natgas/NGL system. 

For years, the South Texas NGL market was a world of its own — a self-contained liquids ecosystem centered around the refineries and petrochemical plants in the Corpus Christi area. But that all changed about six years ago when EPIC Midstream built a new NGL pipeline from the Permian into Corpus and a new fractionator to process those liquids. Corpus morphed into a vibrant NGL market in its own right. But nothing with South Texas NGLs is easy. Before the EPIC system was even up and running, a consortium calling itself BANGL — short for Belvieu Alternative NGL — announced another pipeline to compete for Permian NGLs that would parallel EPIC’s route out of the Permian, but then make a hard left toward Sweeny and Texas City, setting up a battle of the pipes for Permian NGLs. 

Normal butane is an important gasoline blendstock, with a great combination of high octane and relatively low cost. It also has a high Reid vapor pressure, or RVP, which is a good news/bad news kind of thing because while regulators allow higher-RVP gasoline — that is, gasoline with higher levels of butane — to be sold during the colder months of the year, they forbid its sale during the warmer months, thereby forcing butane levels in gasoline to be kept to a minimum. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, air-quality regulations and seasonal shifts in butane blending may add complexity to gasoline production and marketing, but they also create opportunities to increase gasoline supply and earn substantially larger profits through much of the year. 

Way back in 2018-19, U.S. NGL production was rising fast, new ethane-only steam crackers were coming online along the Gulf Coast, and new fractionation capacity wasn’t being added quickly enough — the capacity shortfall sent the NGL market into near-panic. Fast forward to now: NGL production is still rising but domestic demand is flat, resulting in an NGL-exports surge and a race to develop new export capacity. And fractionation capacity in Mont Belvieu and elsewhere? The market learned its lesson five years ago and, to avert another capacity crunch, midstream companies have been adding new fractionators at an almost frenetic pace. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the ongoing fractionation-capacity buildout — and the need to quickly expand NGL export terminals. 

In North Dakota’s Bakken production region, crude oil is king. The light, sweet crude produced there is attractive to buyers in the Midwest and Gulf Coast and is the primary driver of producer economics in the basin. And when the crude is produced, it comes along with a healthy dose of NGL-rich associated natural gas. But while those are valuable products in their own right, providing economic uplift when sold, it’s a double-edged sword. Natural gas and NGL volumes are increasing rapidly and will soon test the limits of takeaway capacity, with the potential to disrupt not only those commodities but also the crude production with which they’re associated. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss three potential limitations faced by Bakken producers: natural gas pipeline capacity, NGL pipeline capacity and, at the fulcrum of those two, the Btu heat content of the gas being piped out of the basin. 

The demand for ethane by Alberta’s petrochemical industry has experienced a slow expansion in the past 20 or so years. However, that demand is likely to increase sharply by the end of the decade now that Dow Chemical has sanctioned a major expansion at its operations in Fort Saskatchewan, AB, that will more than double the site’s ethane requirements. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, this will call for an “all-hands-on-deck” approach to increasing Alberta’s access to ethane supplies from numerous sources. 

After a roughly three-year wait for a critical state permit, Enbridge’s Great Lakes Tunnel and Pipe Replacement project for its Line 5 pipeline across the Straits of Mackinac in Michigan has taken a step forward. The Army Corps of Engineers’ permits for the tunnel project would seem to be the only major obstacle standing in the way of construction, but there may well be more challenges ahead. Like a few other oil and gas projects — namely, Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) — Line 5 has become entangled in controversy, including local opposition worried that a spill would irreparably damage their surroundings and spoil the state’s natural resources. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the Line 5 project, its next steps, and the opposition it continues to encounter. 

Since the start of the Shale Revolution 15 years ago, U.S. NGL production has increased by an extraordinary 260% to more than 6.5 MMb/d. And it’s not just NGL production that’s up sharply. So are exports of NGL purity products, especially LPG (propane and normal butane) and ethane. All that growth — and the growth that’s still to come — wouldn’t be possible without a seemingly non-stop expansion of NGL-related infrastructure. Everything from gas processing plants and NGL pipelines to salt-dome storage, fractionators and export docks. And much of that infrastructure is in the hands of just a few large midstream companies that over the years have developed “well-to-water” NGL networks that enable their owners to collect multiple fees along the NGL value chain. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on NGL networks.