The European Union (EU) has had to rethink and reconfigure major elements of its policies around natural gas since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Prior to the war, Russian volumes accounted for 45% of the EU’s imports of natural gas, nearly double the supply from second-place Norway, but Russian gas supplies have dropped considerably since then, impacting the global LNG market. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the EU’s continued efforts to reduce its reliance on Russia, how it’s trading supply risk for price risk, and what the changes could mean for U.S. LNG exporters.
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Just a few years ago, Russia was annually exporting 150 billion cubic meters (Bcm; 14.5 Bcf/d) of natural gas to Europe, including pipeline gas and LNG. But volumes have declined sharply, first due to the damage inflicted on the offshore Nord Stream pipelines (twin green lines in Figure 1 below) that connect Russia and Germany and second from the termination (at the end of 2024) of the last agreement to move Russian gas through Ukraine via pipeline to other parts of Europe. (Most of the Nord Stream system under the Baltic Sea was destroyed in a September 2022 explosion. Nord Stream 1 began service in 2011; Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021 but never entered service.) Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe are now limited to volumes imported via the TurkStream gas pipeline (pink line), which runs under the Black Sea and connects in Turkey, which delivered 16.7 Bcm (1.6 Bcf/d) to European customers in 2024, notably to Hungary (7.6 Bcm; 0.7 Bcf/d).
Figure 1. Russian Natural Gas Routes to Europe. Source: RBN
In contrast, Russian LNG derived from Novatek’s Yamal project (orange diamond at top of Figure 1) and three small facilities located in the Baltic Sea has not been as heavily impacted by political events. EU imports of Russian LNG rose by 18% from 2023 to 24.2 Bcm (2.3 Bcf/d) in 2024. This occurred despite the EU having previously imposed 16 different sets of sanctions on Russian energy supplies. (More on the impact of the 17th in a bit.) The cost of this gas was 21.9 billion euros ($24.9 billion), which exceeded the 18.7 billion euros ($21.2 billion) in financial aid the EU sent to Ukraine in the same year. By purchasing Russian gas, the EU has essentially been helping Russia finance its war with Ukraine.
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About the song
“Turn the Page” was written by Bob Seger and first appeared as the fifth cut on side one of his sixth studio album, Back in ’72. However, the song would receive more radio airplay when it was included on Seger’s 1976 live album, Live Bullet. Drummer David Teegarden says Seger wrote this song after an incident at a truck stop when Seger was touring with the Tulsa band Teegarden, Van Winkle & Bruce backing him. En route to their next show, some truck drivers at the truck stop’s diner hassled them and made derogatory comments about their long hair and appearance. By the next day, Seger had written “Turn the Page” about the event.
Back in ’72 was recorded at Leon Russell’s Paradise Studios in Tia Juana, OK; Pampa Studios in Warren, MI; and Muscle Shoals Studios in Muscle Shoals, AL. Produced by Punch Andrews and Bob Seger, the album was released in January 1973 and went to #188 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. Personnel on the record were: Bob Seger (lead vocals, guitar), Dick Sims (Hammond organ, bass pedals, piano and Clavinet), Jamie Oldaker (drums), Sergio Pastora (percussion), Alto Reed (saxophones and flute) and Marcy Levy (background vocals). Oldaker and Levy would record with Leon Russell, and then join Sims in becoming part of Eric Clapton’s band later in the 1970s.
Live Bullet was recorded at Cobo Hall in Detroit in September 1975 and released in April 1976. The record was produced by Punch Andrews and Bob Seger. Now billed as Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band, this live showcase of Seger's talents went to #34 on the Top 200 Albums chart. The considerable amount of radio airplay it received helped prime the way for Seger to become a national star with his next LP release, Night Moves. “Turn the Page” was one of the highlights from the live album. The personnel on Live Bullet were: Bob Seger (lead vocals, guitar, piano), Drew Abbott (lead guitar, backing vocals), Alto Reed (saxophones, backing vocals), Robyn Robins (keyboards), Chris Campbell (bass, backing vocals) and Charlie Martin (drums, backing vocals).
Metallica covered the song and released it as a single in November 1998 from their Garage Inc. album. It went to #1 on the Billboard Mainstream Rock Singles chart.
Bob Seger is an American singer, songwriter and musician from Detroit. He has released 18 studio albums, two live albums, seven compilation albums and 68 singles. Seger has sold more than 75 million records worldwide and is a member of the Songwriters Hall of Fame, the Michigan Rock and Roll Legends Hall of Fame and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. He has won one Grammy Award and concluded his Roll Me Away final tour in November 2019.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
