RBN Energy

Buoyed in part by early optimism about the Trump administration’s potentially positive impact on the economy and the oil and gas industry, the WTI spot oil price reached a five-month high of nearly $76/bbl in January. But the optimism and oil prices have steadily eroded due to the impact of tariffs, trade wars and stubborn oilfield service inflation. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the impact of the January price spike on Q1 2025 earnings and analyze the potential impact of a much lower price scenario in Q2 2025. 

Analyst Insights

Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.

By TJ Braziel - Wednesday, 6/11/2025 (3:15 pm)
Report Highlight: Crude Oil Billboard

Refinery activity surged last week, with total net inputs climbing 230 Mb/d to 17.225 MMb/d, the highest level since late 2019. Gross inputs rose by 170 Mb/d, pushing utilization up nearly a full point to 94.3%, with PADDs 2 and 5 leading the gains.

By Martin King - Wednesday, 6/11/2025 (3:00 pm)

Re-exports of Canadian heavy crude oil are estimated to have been 35 Mb/d in May 2025 (rightmost stacked columns in chart below), a drop of 121 Mb/d from April, 64 Mb/d less than a year ago, and an eight-month low based on tanker data compiled by Bloomberg and historical export data released by t

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Daily Energy Blog

The U.S. outlook for low-carbon hydrogen was bright and sunny just a year or two ago, with billions in federal funding and policy support, but to no one’s surprise, things have darkened considerably this year. Several clean-energy initiatives have faced resistance from Republicans in Washington, with the budget reconciliation bill currently making its way through Congress on track to produce the most significant changes yet. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how the bill could dramatically scale back the 45V tax credit for hydrogen production and deal a mighty blow to dozens of projects under development. 

Hydrogen has a well-established, if limited, role in the modern economy. It has been used in refining and ammonia production for decades, but its potential has long been touted in various areas, including decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial processes such as steelmaking, as well as in larger roles in heavy-duty transportation and energy storage. The last few years have seen a significant push to expand hydrogen’s role — an attempt to capitalize on its versatility and lack of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions —  but a number of formidable obstacles to wider adoption remain, including price, availability and infrastructure, in addition to its tenuous political support. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the challenges that make forecasting the industry’s growth difficult and the emerging consensus around the most practical end uses for hydrogen. 

The long-delayed rules around the federal government’s Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (PTC), also known as 45V, had been the subject of heated debate — and lobbying — since passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) way back in August 2022. But after more than a year of speculation — and with the Biden administration in its last days — the final rulemaking has at last been published. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how the final rulemaking compares with the initial guidelines established in December 2023, detail the key areas where the rules have been made more lenient, and explain why clean hydrogen still faces an uncertain future, while also previewing our first Drill Down report of 2025. 

Over the past few years, tax credits and other incentives — both financial and regulatory — have breathed life into the U.S. market for sustainable aviation fuel, whose production is now ramping up, with more SAF capacity on the way. But the sector may experience turbulence under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged to undo much of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and pull back on the stepped-up decarbonization efforts that helped define the Biden presidency. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the latest developments in the SAF space and the choppiness the still-fledgling sector may soon face. 

Increasing the production of low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen is viewed by many as a way to help the U.S. reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But so far only minimal amounts of LCI hydrogen are being produced, raising the question of what it would take to significantly ramp up production without breaking the bank. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude a series on a National Petroleum Council (NPC) study on LCI hydrogen with a look at its recommendations for what the U.S. should do next. 

One of the biggest challenges to a significant expansion of the commercial hydrogen market in the U.S. is the lack of a comprehensive transportation network. That has spurred interest from utilities, government agencies and others interested in utilizing or repurposing parts of the existing (and extensive) natural gas infrastructure to ship hydrogen. But that approach comes with some challenges, starting with the significant differences in the physical and chemical properties of hydrogen and methane, the main component of natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain why moving hydrogen on the existing natural gas network — then storing and utilizing it — is no easy feat. 

Progress in the carbon-capture industry can be slow, given the extended permitting process for sequestration wells, uncertain long-term outlook and skepticism about the real-world effectiveness in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The past several weeks have been a better-than-usual period for advocates of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), with significant milestones reached for a trio of important projects under development, but not all the news was positive. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what’s happening with a handful of key CCS projects. 

Given the frothy targets to reduce U.S. carbon emissions set by the 2016 Paris Agreement and an anticipated expanding role in that process for low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen that is barely being produced in 2024, it’s hard to believe there’s a path forward. Yet one recent study from industry participants in the National Petroleum Council (NPC), commissioned by the Department of Energy (DOE), provides detailed projections of how and where LCI hydrogen will develop, including regional variations. In today’s RBN blog we review that analysis. 

Two major pieces of early-2020s legislation — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2021) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA; 2022) — promise to provide billions of dollars in tax credits and other incentives for expanding the production of low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen. But the hype around clean hydrogen as a fuel of the future has lost some momentum of late, mostly due to spiraling costs. So we’re left with two questions: Can expanded production and use of LCI hydrogen significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and, just as important, is LCI hydrogen production cost-effective?

Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August 2022 was intended to unleash a wave of clean-energy initiatives, from hydrogen and renewable fuels to electric vehicles and large-scale carbon-capture projects, all part of the Biden administration’s plans to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and move the U.S. closer to a net-zero economy. But while billions in federal financing and tax credits have helped move many projects forward, they can only advance as fast as permitting, regulations and economic reality will allow. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the surge in proposed carbon-capture projects since passage of the IRA, where they are in the review process, and how the pace of permitting at the federal level compares with the states that have primacy over their own sequestration wells. 

Rising global interest in clean ammonia — plus the potential for earning generous federal tax credits — spurred a host of project announcements over the past couple of years, with the first new production capacity slated to start up as soon as 2025. But reality is setting in regarding the pace of clean-ammonia demand growth and the financial, regulatory and other challenges of developing complicated, big-dollar projects, particularly those involving carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In today’s RBN blog, we provide an update on the major clean ammonia proposals we’ve been tracking. 

The intermittent nature of renewable energy is a well-documented thorn in the side of efforts to decarbonize the power grid, especially with more wind and solar generation coming online every year. But while those sources of clean energy are not available all the time, it’s also true that they can sometimes produce more power than transmission lines or a power grid can handle during other periods, leading to curtailments. An increasingly important tool that can lessen the impact of both problems is power storage. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll address the limitations of today’s storage options and look at how long-duration energy storage (LDES) could play a critical role in the years ahead.

The Biden administration has placed some big bets on clean hydrogen, seeing it as a replacement fuel for some hard-to-abate industries and putting it at the heart of its long-term decarbonization efforts. But while clean hydrogen has significant long-term potential — backed by major subsidies, including the 45V production tax credit (PTC) — figuring out a path to a greater role in the U.S. energy mix is more complicated than it might seem. The proposed rules around the tax credit have stirred up a hornet’s nest worth of criticism from those who think the guidance might ultimately do more harm than good. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll preview our latest Drill Down Report on the incentives — primarily the 45V tax credit — intended to expand the clean hydrogen industry and examine some of the barriers to significant growth. 

When the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was passed into law in August 2022, it earned near-unanimous acclaim from longtime supporters of renewable energy and decarbonization efforts. Industry types also approved of the bill’s focus on incentives to fuel new developments. One of its most ambitious elements was creation of the 45V production tax credit (PTC) for clean hydrogen, a central part of the Biden administration’s efforts to build a clean-energy economy. But while the PTC may have a significant impact on the U.S. energy landscape over the long run, the December 2023 rollout of the proposed rulemaking has generated no small amount of criticism. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll lay out some of the changes that some say should be included in the final rulemaking to help the clean-hydrogen economy make a quick break from the starting gate instead of getting left at the back of the pack. 

The federal government’s Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (PTC), also known as 45V, provides the highest incentives for hydrogen produced using clean sources of power generation, like wind and solar. That might seem like great news for current and potential hydrogen producers looking to take advantage of the credit, since the U.S. has added significant renewable generation capacity in the last several years, but the reality is much different. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain how “additionality” fits into the “three pillars” of clean hydrogen, how it would be calculated under the proposed guidance, and some ways the rules might be adjusted to give hydrogen producers and power generators a little more flexibility.