It seems almost nothing is going to stop Western Canada’s crude oil production growth. But getting those incremental barrels to refiners and exporters will require more pipeline takeaway capacity, including expansions to Enbridge’s Mainline and Express systems, which should keep barrels flowing to key markets in the U.S. and avoid a capacity crunch. In today’s RBN blog, we consider how our outlook for Canadian production over the next several years stacks up against takeaway capacity and what additions will be needed to keep pace.
It took a few months of unpleasantries, but it seems the energy trading relationship between the U.S. and Canada has returned to its previous pattern of reliable flows of crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, and electricity across their long border. There were no serious disruptions during the drama that began in January and lasted into April as both countries and trading markets reacted to the changing tune, direction and magnitude of tariffs that were to be enacted by the Trump administration, especially on something as vital and basic as energy imports into the U.S.
After all the drama and gnashing of teeth, the Trump administration ultimately concluded that it would not impose any new tariffs on energy imports. With Canada providing a huge amount of energy (and energy security) to its southern neighbor, especially as its largest importer of crude oil at more than 4 MMb/d — far more than any other nation — it was the best possible outcome for both sides. The potential for unnecessary crude price discounting of Canadian production (see Everybody Hurts) and higher costs for U.S. consumers were avoided — at least for now.
[As the energy landscape continues to evolve, understanding the forces shaping the crude, natural gas and NGL markets has never been more critical. This year, RBN is heading north for School of Energy Canada, set for August 26-27 in Calgary. Join us as we break down the latest market trends, production shifts and infrastructure developments — giving you the insights you need to navigate the fast-changing energy sector on both sides of the border. Register today and save $500 with our Early Bird Rate. Click here to learn more.]
As we discussed about a month ago in Here, There and Everywhere, it was in the midst of the tariff chaos earlier this year that Calgary, AB-based Enbridge, one of the largest midstream companies in the world, introduced additional plans and details for the expansion of its liquids pipeline systems linking Canada and the U.S. for the export of crude oil and import of diluent, a vital ingredient for the transportation of bitumen from the oil sands of Alberta. With the company’s expectation that Western Canada’s crude oil production will be steadily pushed higher in the years ahead, led by the Alberta oil sands, more pipeline export capacity will be needed to move that crude to market, while partly using additional imported diluent.
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