RBN Energy

Over the past decade, the only significant growth market for U.S. crude oil and NGLs has been exports, with over 90% departing from the Gulf Coast. Exports via Gulf of Mexico ports have surged from about 1 MMb/d in 2016 to over 6 MMb/d last year. Great news for PADD 3 export facilities, right? Well, it’s not that simple. The distribution of barrels has been wildly uneven, resulting in significant winners, forlorn losers, and everything in between. And export volumes are still ramping up, as is the competition among marine terminals for crude and NGL export market share, with far-reaching consequences for producers, midstreamers and exporters. This is one of the core themes at our upcoming NACON conference, which is all about PADD 3 North American Crude Oil & NGLs and scheduled for October 24 at the Royal Sonesta Hotel in Houston. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll delve into the highly competitive liquids export landscape, consider some of the important factors driving flows one way or the other, and — fair warning — slip in some subliminal advertising for the NACON event. 

Crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is poised for a growth spurt through 2030 even as producers brace for a host of challenges, not least from forecasts that global oil demand will subside in the long term. But while the GOM’s supply accounts for a relatively small portion of total U.S. production, exploration and production companies (E&Ps) haven’t lost interest, in part because the Gulf offers key crude grades in high demand. In today’s RBN blog, we examine what is stoking the renewed interest in developing the GOM. 

Every year, the biggest wild card regarding Gulf of Mexico (GOM) crude oil production is the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season. A season generally free of major storms in offshore production areas will likely have only a minimal impact, but a summer and early fall with even just one or two powerful hurricanes along certain paths can cause output to plummet, sometimes for extended periods. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at GOM production gains over the years, the degree to which hurricanes and other issues have reduced output in the past, and the new production expected to come online later this decade. 

Guyana’s crude oil production is surging, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of the decade, and with no domestic refining industry its exports are booming. Shipments of Guyana’s medium-density, sweet-ish crude to the U.S. have ramped up and are increasingly making their way to the West Coast, which relies on imports given its lack of easy access to domestic shale crudes and limited regional output. In today's RBN blog, the second in a series, we‘ll examine where Guyana’s barrels are ending up and how they stack up against competing grades.