Posts from Martin King

It seems almost nothing is going to stop Western Canada’s crude oil production growth. But getting those incremental barrels to refiners and exporters will require more pipeline takeaway capacity, including expansions to Enbridge’s Mainline and Express systems, which should keep barrels flowing to key markets in the U.S. and avoid a capacity crunch. In today’s RBN blog, we consider how our outlook for Canadian production over the next several years stacks up against takeaway capacity and what additions will be needed to keep pace.

Today, we celebrate Juneteenth, which honors the end of slavery in the U.S. In observance of today’s holiday, we’ve given our analysts a break and are revisiting our June 6 blog on Western Canada’s crude oil production growth, which also serves as a preview of our upcoming School of Energy Canada. If you didn’t read it then, this is your opportunity to see what you missed.

It seems almost nothing is going to stop Western Canada’s crude oil production growth. But getting those incremental barrels to refiners and exporters will require more pipeline takeaway capacity, including expansions to Enbridge’s Mainline and Express systems, which should keep barrels flowing to key markets in the U.S. and avoid a capacity crunch. In today’s RBN blog, we consider how our outlook for Canadian production over the next several years stacks up against takeaway capacity and what additions will be needed to keep pace. 

It has been 12 months since the Trans Mountain Expansion Project — aka TMX — finally began operations after years of delay, creating a much-needed, larger conduit to move Western Canada’s rising crude oil production to the Pacific Northwest and overseas markets. Although the customer base for exports remains limited, the Trans Mountain pipeline system has been responsible for opening up entirely new markets for Canadian crude. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, despite its numerous delays and immense cost, the pipeline has recently seen record crude shipments and is nearing its nameplate capacity, driven by rising exports. 

In an industry such as oil and gas that is beset with more uncertainty than usual of late due to geopolitical upsets, bubbling trade wars and a recent plunge in crude oil prices, being a larger company with the resources to survive the turbulent times — and thrive when the sailing is smoother — is more important than ever. For Western Canada’s energy sector, this has meant companies getting bigger through mergers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the planned combination of Whitecap Resources and Veren, one of the largest deals to emerge in the region in recent memory, as well as several other recent transactions that have been part of the consolidation wave. 

It might seem crazy to talk about expanding crude oil and diluent pipeline systems between Canada and the U.S. amid what could escalate into an all-out trade war between the two nations. However, Enbridge, one of the largest pipeline operators in the world, is doing just that — actively planning and investing in pipeline expansions for its Mainline, Express-Platte and Southern Lights systems that would help move an ever-rising tide of Canada’s oil sands crude to market in the years ahead. We examine Enbridge’s plans in today’s RBN blog. 

Western Canada’s natural gas market never really seems to catch a break. Prices this winter have remained well below those across much of the rest of North America thanks to an all-too-common combination of insufficient pipeline export capacity from the region, bloated gas storage and robust supply growth. Even with forward price prospects for much of the rest of the continent looking buoyant, with more gas expected to head to expanding Gulf Coast LNG terminals and a storage-refill season that will be stronger than last year, price upside for Western Canada looks to be minimal at best and will be partly dependent on the rate of gas intake to LNG Canada, as we explain in today’s RBN blog. 

After a decade-long odyssey and a cost-per-mile that must make public-sector accountants in Ottawa wince, the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) — which nearly tripled the capacity of the original Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP) from Alberta to the British Columbia (BC) coast — finally came into service in May 2024. As one of Canada’s most anticipated energy infrastructure projects in many years, the 590-Mb/d TMX pipeline — built alongside the long-standing 300-Mb/d TMP — was widely touted by its advocates as a surefire way to boost exports of Western Canadian crude and reduce the nation’s near-complete reliance on exporting crude oil to — and through — its primary customer, the U.S. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss some of the surprising (and not so surprising) market developments since the expansion project started. 

For natural gas markets to operate as efficiently as possible, a lot of data is needed, including up-to-date estimates of the amount of gas in storage and the physical capacity to hold it. For too long, Canadian natural gas markets have been operating with an obvious blind spot: little to no reliable storage data. With Alberta being home to the largest amount of gas storage capacity in Canada, having accurate information could provide vital data in the pricing of Canadian natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a multi-part series examining Canadian natural gas storage, starting with Alberta. 

British Columbia’s portion of the immense unconventional Montney formation has been the epicenter of Western Canada’s rapidly rising natural gas production in recent years. It should come as no surprise then that it has also become fertile ground for numerous acquisitions of companies — or some portion of their assets — by more nimble and financially stronger gas producers. However, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the most recent acquisition by Canada’s largest natural gas producer, Tourmaline Oil Corp., leaves the list of potential targets shockingly short.

For a few days last week, Canada experienced a nationwide shutdown of its rail transportation network — the backbone of its economy. Of the literally thousands of items railed across Canada to consumers and for export to the U.S. and overseas, we consider three important liquid energy commodities — crude oil, propane and butane — that are transported by rail to provide some perspective on the volumes and dollar values that could have been jeopardized by an extended shutdown. In today’s RBN blog, we summarize the short-lived disruption to Canadian and international commerce and tally the impacts that could have been. 

Shipping large volumes of LNG from Canada’s West Coast across the Pacific Ocean to gas-hungry markets in Asia has been a dream nearly two decades in the making. After a great deal of work and patience, three projects have moved into the construction phase, with the most advanced — LNG Canada — on the cusp of accepting its first test-gas volumes, with exports possible by the end of the year. Even with all this progress, three additional projects are vying for the opportunity to join Canada’s LNG export party, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog. 

Developers have been kicking around plans for LNG exports from British Columbia (BC), Canada’s westernmost province, for more than a decade, with more than 20 projects on the drawing board at one point. That long list has been whittled down to just three that have reached the point of final investment decision (FID) — a hard plan to proceed to construction and startup. One of those projects, LNG Canada, should be sending out LNG as soon as the end of this year, placing Canada firmly on the map of LNG-exporting nations. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the three projects and hint at plans by a handful of contenders vying to join the LNG export party. 

With an announcement in late 2023 by Dow Chemical that it would be undertaking an enormous expansion of its ethylene production site in Fort Saskatchewan, AB, it was immediately clear that Alberta’s ethane supplies would need to increase by a significant 110 Mb/d. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, a deal was signed in February between Dow and Pembina Pipeline Corp. that calls for the midstreamer to provide up to 50 Mb/d of additional ethane supplies and, according to executives at Pembina’s investor day earlier this month, will require the company to invest between C$300 million (US$220 million) and C$500 million (US$367 million) to build out its existing NGL/ethane infrastructure.

LNG Canada, under construction for nearly six years on Canada’s West Coast, is rapidly approaching the time when first gas will be entering the plant for testing and calibration of equipment, marking an important transformation for the Western Canadian natural gas market. This will kick off what will likely be about a yearlong testing process before officially entering commercial service in mid-2025. In today’s RBN blog, we consider daily gas flow data from the startup of similar-sized LNG plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast and develop a conjectural timeline for LNG Canada to help assess how much gas will flow to the site — and how soon — and when LNG exports might begin. 

The Enbridge Mainline, by far the largest transportation network for growing Western Canadian crude oil supplies to the U.S. Midwest, Gulf Coast and Eastern Canada, recently received regulatory approval for the tolls that it charges shippers for using the massive pipeline system. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER) thumbs-up ensures another five years of shipping cost predictability and comes as the Canadian oil pipeline landscape is about to permanently change with the pending startup of the 590-Mb/d Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX).