Martin King

Western Canada’s natural gas market never really seems to catch a break. Prices this winter have remained well below those across much of the rest of North America thanks to an all-too-common combination of insufficient pipeline export capacity from the region, bloated gas storage and robust supply growth. Even with forward price prospects for much of the rest of the continent looking buoyant, with more gas expected to head to expanding Gulf Coast LNG terminals and a storage-refill season that will be stronger than last year, price upside for Western Canada looks to be minimal at best and will be partly dependent on the rate of gas intake to LNG Canada, as we explain in today’s RBN blog. 

For natural gas markets to operate as efficiently as possible, a lot of data is needed, including up-to-date estimates of the amount of gas in storage and the physical capacity to hold it. For too long, Canadian natural gas markets have been operating with an obvious blind spot: little to no reliable storage data. With Alberta being home to the largest amount of gas storage capacity in Canada, having accurate information could provide vital data in the pricing of Canadian natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a multi-part series examining Canadian natural gas storage, starting with Alberta. 

Developers have been kicking around plans for LNG exports from British Columbia (BC), Canada’s westernmost province, for more than a decade, with more than 20 projects on the drawing board at one point. That long list has been whittled down to just three that have reached the point of final investment decision (FID) — a hard plan to proceed to construction and startup. One of those projects, LNG Canada, should be sending out LNG as soon as the end of this year, placing Canada firmly on the map of LNG-exporting nations. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the three projects and hint at plans by a handful of contenders vying to join the LNG export party. 

LNG Canada, under construction for nearly six years on Canada’s West Coast, is rapidly approaching the time when first gas will be entering the plant for testing and calibration of equipment, marking an important transformation for the Western Canadian natural gas market. This will kick off what will likely be about a yearlong testing process before officially entering commercial service in mid-2025. In today’s RBN blog, we consider daily gas flow data from the startup of similar-sized LNG plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast and develop a conjectural timeline for LNG Canada to help assess how much gas will flow to the site — and how soon — and when LNG exports might begin.