The U.S. is still years away from establishing a national carbon tax or cap-and-trade system — and it’s certainly possible it will never take either step. But there are state and regional cap-and-trade programs in place to incentivize refiners and others to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In today’s RBN blog, our fourth and final on carbon emissions and the refining sector, we look at state and international efforts to reduce GHG emissions and their prospective impact on the U.S. refining industry.
Daily Energy Blog
It’s relatively common along the U.S. Gulf Coast to use underground salt domes to store crude oil, natural gas, mixed NGLs and so-called NGL “purity products” like ethane and propane. There are also a handful of salt cavern storage facilities in Kansas, Michigan, New York and Virginia. But in the Rockies and the West Coast states they’re rare as hen’s teeth, one of the few examples being Sawtooth Caverns, a one-of-a-kind facility in Utah that not only stores propane and butanes but also gasoline and diesel. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss Sawtooth Caverns and its increasing role in the sprawling region’s NGL and refined products markets.
There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand.
Weak refining margins, rising regulatory compliance costs, softening demand for gasoline and the push for lower-carbon alternatives like batteries and renewable diesel have each contributed to a steady decline in California’s refining capacity the past few years. Now, Phillips 66’s plan to idle its 139-Mb/d Los Angeles Refinery in Q4 2025 will leave the Golden State with only seven conventional refineries producing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — a couple of dozen fewer than it had 40 years ago. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll put P66’s recent announcement in context and discuss the likelihood of additional refinery closures.
Oxygen-containing gasoline additives called oxygenates, including ethanol, have provided an octane boost to the U.S. gasoline pool since 2000. This has allowed refineries to reduce the octane of refinery-produced gasoline, which increases their gasoline production capacity and efficiency while simultaneously helping achieve the goals for cleaner, lower-carbon fuels derived from domestic renewable feedstocks. A new approach to gasoline formulation promises to take this “sharing” of the octane load much further to exploit the unique octane-enhancing qualities of ethanol, although there are some real-world challenges to wider implementation. In today’s RBN blog, we explain what’s behind the concept of “hydrogen-rich” gasoline.
As the Atlantic hurricane season churns out storms that regularly threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, it can be easy to forget that the East Coast — an important refining center and refined-products market — is not immune from their impact. A dozen years ago this month, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey, wreaking havoc with storm surges and fierce winds that stretched for 1,000 miles. While the East Coast lacks the Gulf Coast’s concentration of energy infrastructure, it is home to the critical New York Harbor (NYH) market. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine how storms have affected the refining sector on the East Coast.
There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand.
It now seems likely that Elliott Investment Management’s Amber Energy will acquire CITGO Petroleum for $7.3 billion in mid-2025, thereby ending a yearslong legal drama about the fate of CITGO’s three large U.S. refineries and related pipelines and terminal assets. So what exactly is Amber buying and how will the refineries in question fare in the increasingly competitive global market for refined fuels? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll summarize the long legal battle that led to Amber’s selection by a federal court’s “special master” as the preferred buyer, examine the assets to be acquired, and assess what’s ahead for CITGO’s refineries, which have a combined capacity of more than 800 Mb/d.
Californians love their cars. Be it a lemon-yellow Lamborghini whizzing around Los Angeles freeways or a Jeep cruising the Pacific Coast Highway, getting behind the wheel is not just about coming of age — it’s a life goal in the Golden State. California also typically has the costliest gasoline in the U.S. (except when Hawaii holds that title), exacerbated by occasional price spikes and supply squeezes. The state responded in 2023 with a new law — SB X1-2 — designed in part to increase gasoline price transparency and assess potential ways to ensure consistent and affordable supply. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) first assessment of the law’s impact.
Some U.S. refiners report lower-than-market gasoline profit margins in the summer, which are often attributed to summer volatility specifications. But that is not always the primary issue; rather, some refiners have trouble generating enough octane-barrels due to the strong demand during the summer months, which can help drive price spikes. In today’s RBN blog we explain why, with a focus on octane, the primary yardstick of gasoline performance, quality and price, and show how refiners use a PIANO analysis to optimize their production.
More than a decade ago, several U.S. refiners brought new hydrocracking capacity online, wagering that rising demand for middle distillates made such major investments necessary. They were good bets. Demand for jet fuel is expected to continue to grow, and while diesel demand is seen as relatively flat in the U.S. over the next few years, it will continue to climb globally through 2045, according to RBN’s recently released Future of Fuels report. In contrast, the report also sees domestic gasoline demand declines accelerating post-2026 and peaking globally by about 2030, as more consumers turn to electric vehicles (EVs). These contrasting trajectories for middle distillates vs. gasoline will put a growing premium on distillate-centric hydrocracking capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine trends incentivizing hydrocracking capacity and how these units will allow U.S. refiners to maintain their competitiveness in a rapidly changing product market.
The last few years have been filled with often-spirited debate about the global energy transition and the move away from fossil fuels to fully embrace renewables and alternatives to keep the lights on, fuel vehicles and power the world’s economy. But there are a growing number of signs that a swift shift from petroleum is not realistic, which has implications in many areas, including which refinery expansion projects move forward (and where), when oil demand might peak, and which of the many forecasts for gasoline and distillate production will prove to be the most accurate. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from the new Future of Fuels report by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, including RFA’s expectations for how a slower transition might affect producers, refiners and consumers.
Refinery distillation units separate crude oil into light, medium and heavy fractions. After that, refiners start performing chemical reactions using catalysts — materials that accelerate chemical reactions — to change the oil’s natural molecules into the forms needed in modern fuels. In recent years, refiners have stepped up their efforts to recycle those catalysts to improve their profitability and environmental performance. In today’s RBN blog, we explain how catalysts, which were formerly disposed of as hazardous waste, are increasingly being recycled and reused in refineries.
The March appropriations bill passed by Congress and signed by President Biden to fund the federal government mandated the emptying of the federal gasoline reserve in fiscal year 2024, which concludes September 30, followed by its eventual closure. That means about 1 MMbbl — 42 MM gallons — of gasoline will find its way to the market in the next few months, or in as little as a few weeks. The Department of Energy (DOE) is planning to distribute those barrels by the end of June to help keep a lid on gasoline prices ahead of the July 4 holiday and into the heart of the summer driving season. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the decision to close the reserve and the potential impact of those barrels hitting the market.
The federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) have long served as tools to force renewable fuels like ethanol into the U.S. fuel supply. They are environmental credits that subsidize production of renewable fuels that would not otherwise be economically justified. Nuances embedded in the design of these credit systems have again kicked in to surprise the markets, this time with a hit to renewable diesel (RD) margins. Today’s RBN blog zeroes in on two root causes for that hit.