Financial

In an industry such as oil and gas that is beset with more uncertainty than usual of late due to geopolitical upsets, bubbling trade wars and a recent plunge in crude oil prices, being a larger company with the resources to survive the turbulent times — and thrive when the sailing is smoother — is more important than ever. For Western Canada’s energy sector, this has meant companies getting bigger through mergers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the planned combination of Whitecap Resources and Veren, one of the largest deals to emerge in the region in recent memory, as well as several other recent transactions that have been part of the consolidation wave. 

As the clock approached midnight on December 31, E&P managements and shareholders likely clinked champagne flutes to celebrate a remarkable four years of prosperity for an industry that had been nearly shattered by two decades of periodic financial crisis. Soaring post-pandemic commodity prices and gold-plated balance sheets provided generous cash flows, enabling substantial shareholder payouts that restored investor support, but after a period of relative stability the outlook for the E&Ps we follow is uncertain. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review the cash-allocation strategies used by U.S. oil and gas producers in 2024 and examine the factors that could dramatically impact the sector’s performance in 2025. 

Most conversations and analyses around hydrocarbon prices tend to focus on crude oil, if for no other reason than the direct exposure we experience when filling up at the pump. After the commodity price crash in early 2020, which threatened the financial stability of U.S. E&Ps, a subsequent surge in oil prices drove a remarkable recovery, winning back investor confidence in the industry. Crude realizations have subsequently declined, slowly but steadily eroding producer results. Fortunately, the outlook for natural gas, which represents just under half the total output of our 38 U.S. E&Ps, has begun to brighten. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze Q4 2024 results for the major E&Ps we cover with a focus on the impact of rising natural gas prices. 

We defy you to name an oil and gas producer that’s been on the buying side of more $1-billion-plus M&A than Permian pure play Diamondback Energy, which announced February 18 that it had agreed to purchase a chunk of Midland Basin assets from Double Eagle IV, one of the Permian’s largest privately held producers, for just under $4.1 billion. You’d be equally hard-pressed to find a team that’s assembled and flipped more Permian acreage and production than the folks at Double Eagle. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the newly announced Diamondback/Double Eagle IV deal and what it gives Diamondback, the fourth-largest producer in the Permian after ExxonMobil, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum. 

The U.S. energy industry’s midstream sector has experienced an extraordinary consolidation over the past few years. This undeniable trend has been driven by the widely held (and sensible) view that the winners in the industry’s next era will be the midstreamers with massive scale and the right assets in the best places. As evidenced by the extension of this buying spree into 2025, there’s still a lot more reshuffling to do. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss a few of the latest midstream deals in the Permian, the Eagle Ford and the Bakken, as well as highlights from our new Drill Down Report on midstream M&A. 

One of the most important but elusive factors that drive movements in share prices is investor sentiment, a prevailing attitude toward anticipated future performance that past or current performance metrics may not justify. While the most extreme recent examples are social media-driven meme stocks like GameStop and AMC, no sector, including energy, is immune. Although we focus our E&P company analysis strictly on performance and price metrics, investor sentiment has and is playing a role in the share price movements among producer peer groups. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q3 2024 results of the Diversified E&P peer group with an eye toward investor sentiment. 

There’s an old saw that pessimists are optimists with experience. That may be one reason the post-election burst of investor enthusiasm that briefly drove most E&P stocks higher soon evaporated for oil-focused producers under the weight of eroding prices and uncertainty about future demand. But, surprisingly, investors continued to support the shares of long-downtrodden Gas-Weighted producers, buying into the vision of long-term gains in domestic and LNG-export demand and more favorable pricing. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q3 2024 results for the gas-focused producers we track, which differed markedly from their Oil-Weighted and Diversified peers. 

After languishing since midsummer, the share prices of U.S. oil and gas producers surged after Election Day on a wave of optimism that the sector would flourish under the new administration. However, stocks quickly gave up most of the gains on lackluster Q3 2024 results and a great deal of uncertainty about how — or even if — President-elect Trump’s oft-quoted goal to “drill baby drill” to lower energy costs would impact the strategies and results of the publicly traded E&Ps, especially the 15 major Oil-Weighted producers we cover. In today’s RBN blog, we delve deeper into the impact of the Q3 results of the oil producers on shareholder returns, cash allocation, leverage and capital investment, including the first announcements of 2025 budgets. 

As 2023 was drawing to a close, folks with 401(k) plans and IRAs were wondering whether stocks would have another great year in 2024. Many of us tracking oil and gas E&Ps were asking a similar question about upstream M&A: Is there any way to match the consolidation frenzy that started in mid-2020 and didn’t let up? The answer is, yes — 2024 was another barn-burner year for acquisitions. (And for Wall Street and our investments!). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down report on the past year in producer M&A. 

Boosting America’s hydrocarbon output was a major plank in the 2024 Republican platform, and Donald Trump’s recent victory has stimulated a lot of optimism about the U.S. upstream sector. The nomination of Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright as Energy Secretary confirmed that “drill, baby, drill” will be a mantra in the new administration. However, over the past few years, U.S. producers have dramatically shifted their focus from growth at any cost to strict financial discipline focused on maximizing free cash flows and shareholder returns. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q3 2024 results of the major U.S. E&Ps we follow and look for early clues about how their senior executives might react to the renewed federal enthusiasm to rapidly accelerate drilling. 

Even with all the headline-making deals we’ve seen in the North American oil and gas industry over the past two or three years, producers and midstream companies are still at it. And the M&A, the post-acquisition divestitures and the acreage swaps aren’t confined to the Permian, which has seen more than its share of big-dollar transactions lately. In fact, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, some of the biggest deals the past few months have involved production assets in the booming Montney in Western Canada, the generally sleepy Piceance in western Colorado, the quirky-as-heck Uinta in Utah, and — on the midstream side of things — a trio of natural gas pipelines in the Midwest. 

Just over three years ago, Cabot Oil & Gas — Coterra Energy’s corporate predecessor — was focused exclusively on producing natural gas in the Marcellus Shale. But unlike other gas-centric E&Ps like EQT Corp., Chesapeake Energy and Antero Resources, Cabot decided it was time to diversify. In October 2021, it merged with Cimarex Energy, an oil-and-gas producer in the Permian and the Anadarko, to form Coterra. Now, Coterra has doubled down on diversification with a plan to acquire oil-weighted Permian assets from privately held Franklin Mountain Energy and Avant Natural Resources for a total of $3.95 billion in cash and stock. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the deals and why Cabot/Coterra decided to “go its own way.” 

The multibillion-dollar acquisitions that have become almost routine in the upstream sector the past few years are typically accompanied by asset rationalization — in other words, a thoughtful look at which elements of the pro forma company make sense followed by the divestiture of those that don’t. In many cases, a key aim of that rationalization process is trimming any debt associated with the acquisition itself. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the big steps Chevron has been taking to rework its portfolio — and sell off up to $15 billion in assets — as it inches toward closing on its $60 billion purchase of Hess Corp. 

The upcoming presidential election has filled the airways with discussions around crucial issues, some with dramatic short-term (yet highly variable) impacts and others that will play out over several years. The impact of the critical short-term issue facing oil and gas producers today — historically low natural gas prices — varies depending on the structure of individual company portfolios. In today’s RBN blog, the last of our four-part series, we analyze the effect of lower gas prices on the revenues, cash flows, investment, leverage and cash allocation of Oil-Weighted E&Ps and discuss how they are adapting. 

The recent bankruptcy filing by Tupperware, once a staple of nearly every kitchen, is yet another reminder that long-term corporate success depends on managing through the ever-changing business environment. Many blogs have been written about the ultimate impact on oil and gas producers of the decades-long shift to lower-carbon energy sources, but E&Ps face short-term challenges as well, one of which is the recent plunge in natural gas prices. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the effect of lower gas prices on the revenues, cash flows, investment, leverage and cash allocation of producers with a rough balance of oil and gas production and discuss how these Diversified producers are adapting.