

The popularity of weather derivatives has ebbed and flowed since their introduction in the late 1990s but trading activity has rebounded in recent years as the trading community has increasingly begun to reassess the need to hedge weather-related risks — everything from high temperatures and rainfall levels to power prices and cooling demand. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the role of weather derivatives, how they are used to hedge risk, and why they may be becoming increasingly important to the energy industry.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
US oil and gas rig count climbed to 549 rigs for the week ending September 26, an increase of seven rigs vs. a week ago and the largest gain since July according to Baker Hughes data.
Low-carbon steel that utilizes green hydrogen in the production process will be used in Microsoft data centers under an agreement announced this week with Swedish steelmaker Stegra.
Exports of liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) from the U.S. to international markets - are expected to nearly double from 466 Mb/d in 2014 to 825 Mb/d in 2018 as production from gas plant processing exceeds domestic demand. There are two LPG export terminals on the Houston Ship Channel that have been responsible for most exports, another six around the country that have exported some LPG over the past year, and still another four new-builds that have been announced. That’s a lot of volume and a lot of dock capacity. One question is whether there are enough LPG ships to handle all of these exports. Today we introduce our review of this question, looking at the specialized vessels used to ship LPGs.
Western Canada’s vast bitumen sands are estimated to contain reserves of 575 billion Bbl of recoverable crude oil. The largely untapped bitumen carbonate formations lying beneath the oil sands could contain another 243 billion Bbl of recoverable reserves. When added to untapped tight oil shale reserves these huge hydrocarbon deposits potentially could make the Province of Alberta the world’s largest crude oil resource. Today contributor Mike Priaro concludes his description of Alberta’s crude oil reserves.
Much like the “crude-by-rail” phenomenon, the burgeoning interest in transporting crude oil by tanker or tanker barge to U.S. refineries represents an innovative answer to a simple question: What is the best, most cost-effective way to move growing domestic and Canadian oil production from the wellhead to refineries? Using waterborne transportation to move crude to market requires a comprehensive understanding of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920—better known as the Jones Act—which regulates maritime commerce in U.S. waters and between U.S. ports. RBN’s latest Drill-Down Report provides a thorough review of the law and its impact on crude oil markets. In today’s blog we examine the highlights of – Rock the Boat, Don’t Rock the Boat— Impact of the Jones Act on U.S. Crude Oil Markets.
Despite some recent rain and snow, California continues to experience a historic drought that will further reduce the state’s hydroelectric output and again increase demand for natural gas for power generation. But the drought is only part of the story. California needs to replace the megawatts once provided by the now-shuttered San Onofre nuclear station, and specifically needs flexible gas-fired capacity to back up the intermittent production from the state’s new solar facilities and wind farms. The resulting gas shortages have led to generators being exposed to massive swings in gas prices this winter and facing higher prices this summer. Today we examine the growing connection between gas use and rain, snow, sun and wind in the Golden State.
US waterborne exports of propane, normal butane and isobutane – known collectively as liquefied petroleum gases or LPGs - are growing rapidly – up from 148 Mb/d in 2011 to 316 Mb/d in 2013. RBN expect these volumes to continue growing from 466 Mb/d this year to 825 Mb/d in 2018 as LPG production from gas plant processing increases more rapidly than domestic demand. The two largest export terminals operated by Enterprise and Targa will add 400 Mb/d of capacity between 2013 and 2018 and as many as 8 more terminals could be built. Today we begin a deep dive series into LPG shipping.
Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at Midland, TX -- close to the Permian Basin production region -- traded at a discount of $7.78/Bbl to WTI at Cushing, OK on Monday of this week (3/10/14), even though the pipeline tariff between the two trading hubs is less than $1/Bbl. Soaring production and tight pipeline capacity out of West Texas mean small changes in the region’s supply balance can cause the discount to blow out - a situation expected to continue at least until the middle of 2014. Today we investigate the probable causes.
There are approximately 3,350 inland tank barges in the US that are all part of the Jones Act fleet. These barges move crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals along 12,000 miles of navigable inland waters – most along the Mississippi River system. Crude by barge traffic has grown 8 fold in the past three years and barges are over 90 percent utilized. Most of the increasing volume of crude moving from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast by barge is coming from Canada by pipeline and loading onto barges in Illinois. Today we review barge movements along the Mississippi River.
Reformate is a blending component that makes up about 30 percent of US gasoline supplies. It is also an important source of aromatics used as feedstocks for the petrochemicals industry. Ongoing changes in the US crude oil slate are reducing the volume of heavy naphtha available to feed catalytic reformer units that make reformate. At the same time better economics for lighter ethane feedstock are reducing the volume of aromatics produced as byproducts of olefin cracking. The result is a shortage of the aromatic materials used to produce a number of petrochemical intermediates such as polymers and fibers. But more changes are coming to the reformate market due to reductions in the use of reformate in gasoline. Today we look at the changing role of reformate.
Blessed with vast amounts of hydroelectric capacity, the Pacific Northwest has traditionally only turned to natural gas as a supplemental source of power. Sure, gas use for power generation ramps up during drier months of the year, and rises significantly in “dry” years like 2010 when lower-than-normal wintertime precipitation reduced river flows and hydro plant output in late spring and early summer. This year is shaping up as another dry one, but other factors are boosting gas demand in the region. New gas-fired plants are being built to replace retiring coal units and to keep pace with load growth and the prospect of relatively low-cost gas for the foreseeable future is encouraging gas-based industrial growth in the region. Today we look at what’s driving gas demand in the Pacific Northwest and how the region’s pipeline infrastructure is being expanded.
The US Energy Information Administration ranks Alberta’s bitumen oil sands reserves second or third to those of Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. However, evidence from the field and new research indicate that Western Canada’s oil reserves are possibly far larger and could rival or exceed those of the Saudis or the Venezuelans. Today contributor Mike Priaro begins a two part series describing Western Canada’s vast bitumen resources.
Low natural gas prices are expected to fuel a revolution in US manufacturing industry over the coming years. This new industrial revolution affects not only gas and power intensive industries but downstream products produced from petrochemicals. Manufacturing industries that left the US decades ago are returning to take advantage of lower costs. Today Taylor Robinson from PLG Consulting details three phases to this industrial renaissance.
There are no crude pipelines running from the Gulf Coast refining region to the West Coast. A Kinder Morgan plan to build such a pipeline last year (2013) floundered on lack of shipper interest. Surging crude supplies at the Gulf Coast and downward pressure on prices in the absence of an end to the crude oil export ban raise the tantalizing possibility of moving crude East to West through the Panama Canal (or the Transpanama pipeline). Today we look at the economics of such shipments.
In the latter half of 2013 two very similar pipeline projects dueled it out with shippers in North Dakota to secure commitments to move crude out of the Bakken into the Midwest and points south. After addressing some concerns raised by federal regulators about tariff structure, the Enbridge and Marathon Petroleum Company Sandpiper proposal appears to be on track for approval. The rival Koch Dakota Express project was abruptly cancelled in January of this year. In pure capacity terms both these pipelines were “nice to have” not “need to have”. Today we complete our analysis of the fate of these competing projects.
Natural gas-fired power generation has always played second fiddle to hydropower in the Pacific Northwest, where dams in the Columbia River Basin typically supply well over half the region’s annual power needs. Gas takes on a more significant role, however, in years like this with lower-than-normal precipitation and hydro generation. And the ongoing phase-out of coal-fired plants in the Pacific Northwest is nudging gas closer to center stage—not just in 2014 but also over the long haul. Today we start a series examining the brightening outlook for gas use in the most hydro-dominant region in the US.
The recent propane shortage is being called a “crisis” and for good reason. But like so many “crises” there is more to the story than is generally known and in this case it’s worth a careful examination of the events involved. Clearly it was a perfect storm in the balance of supply and demand, resulting in huge price spikes. And the consequences included panic, headline news, government intervention and of course, lots of finger pointing. Today we look at how the market responded and why the propane industry will once again be stronger for it.