Daily Energy Blog

According to the World Wildlife Fund, the Javan rhino and the Amur leopard top the global list of most endangered species. Broadening the scope, in 2014-20 we probably would have added the E&P investor to the list, as shareholder returns plunged deep into negative territory for seven consecutive years on volatile commodity prices and massive industry overspending. Almost miraculously, a combination of higher prices and a strategic shift to distribute cash flow to equity holders resulted in record shareholder returns that brought investors back into the fold. However, weakening prices and significant increases in investment have dramatically shrunk returns this year. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, total shareholder returns in 2023 were mixed: good for gas-focused E&Ps but less so for diversified and oil-focused producers. 

Despite dreams of a white Christmas and a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy, there’s a lot going on in the world — much of it upsetting and even gut-wrenching. As for energy, crude oil prices have been sagging after a brief rise and natural gas prices, while up from their lows, remain less than stellar — and it seems things could get far worse in the blink of an eye. All of that has combined to make folks cautious and wary, and that’s impacting how oil and gas producers spend — or hoard — their money. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze U.S. E&Ps’ increasingly conservative cash allocation despite rising returns in Q3 2023. 

Much like their upstream counterparts, midstream companies have shifted to fiscal conservatism over the past few years, focusing less on growth and capital investment and more on shareholder returns, acquisitions and debt reduction. But there are significant differences between the strategies of midstream companies set up as traditional corporations, or C-corps, and those established as master limited partnerships, or MLPs. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our short series on midstream company cash flow allocation with an analysis of their reinvestment rates vs. their shareholder payouts. 

Rumors about potential oil and gas mergers are always swirling, but the announcement of ExxonMobil’s record-breaking deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources a couple of weeks ago generated a fever pitch of speculation about potential matchups. In the past week, we’ve seen media reports of possible courtships between Devon Energy and Marathon Oil and then Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy. However, it was Chevron that shocked the oil patch by swiping right on former integrated oil company Hess Corp., opting for a $60 billion acquisition of an E&P with no Permian Basin exposure. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the drivers and implications of what is now the second-largest U.S. upstream transaction ever. 

Sometimes, courtship is better the second time around. After some previous rumors and flirting with a deal in the spring of 2023, ExxonMobil, the largest international integrated oil company, reached an agreement to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, the largest pure-play Permian producer, for $64.5 billion, the largest-ever U.S. upstream transaction. In today’s blog, we analyze the deal that would make ExxonMobil the top Permian producer, including shifts in the focus and depth of its upstream portfolio, the integration with its existing midstream and downstream infrastructure, and its energy transition goals.

Even now, three-plus years after the start of the oil and gas industry’s biggest consolidation in a quarter century, hardly a month goes by without another major M&A announcement. Just this week, Civitas Resources said it will acquire acreage and production in the Permian from Vencer Energy for $2.1 billion. The primary drivers of these deals — many of which are valued in the billions of dollars — are clear. Among other things, E&Ps are seeking scale and the economies of scale that come with it. They also have come to believe that it makes more sense to grow production through M&A than through aggressive capital spending. And, for some producers not yet involved in the all-important Permian, acquiring even a smaller E&P there provides a foothold to build on. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our newly released Drill Down report on the past 12 months of upstream M&A activity in the U.S. oil patch.

Is the glass half-full or half-empty? The answer to that age-old question usually indicates whether a particular situation is a cause for optimism or pessimism. That question is particularly appropriate when trying to place in perspective the cyclical movement of the earnings and cash flows of U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies, including returns that have steadily declined with commodity prices over the last year. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze Q2 2023 E&P earnings and cash flows and provide some perspective on the past and future profitability of U.S. oil and gas producers.