

The popularity of weather derivatives has ebbed and flowed since their introduction in the late 1990s but trading activity has rebounded in recent years as the trading community has increasingly begun to reassess the need to hedge weather-related risks — everything from high temperatures and rainfall levels to power prices and cooling demand. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the role of weather derivatives, how they are used to hedge risk, and why they may be becoming increasingly important to the energy industry.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
US oil and gas rig count climbed to 549 rigs for the week ending September 26, an increase of seven rigs vs. a week ago and the largest gain since July according to Baker Hughes data.
Low-carbon steel that utilizes green hydrogen in the production process will be used in Microsoft data centers under an agreement announced this week with Swedish steelmaker Stegra.
In December 2013 US Midstream giant Kinder Morgan agreed to spend nearly $1 Billion to get into the oil tanker business by buying two companies that own 5 US registered “Jones Act” vessels and are in the process of building 4 more. These tankers are part of an exclusive fleet of just 42 self propelled ocean going vessels that deliver oil or refined products between US ports. Booming US crude production along with constrained onshore delivery infrastructure have increased demand for tankers that can ship oil along coastal waters. Long-term charter rates for these tankers jumped to over $100,000/day in 2013 compared to an average of $56,000/day in 2012. Today we begin a blog series looking at the US flagged tanker fleet and plans to expand it by 35 percent in the next 2 years.
The icy “polar vortex” that swept across the US earlier this week brought freezing cold temperatures and a record 134 Bcf/d demand for natural gas on Tuesday (Jan 7, 2014). As a result natural gas prices on that day spiked over $70/MMBtu at the TRANSCO non-New York hub. New England buyers fared better - paying “only” around $35/MMBtu for their gas - largely because of a timely supply boost from a rare import cargo of LNG at the Canaport New Brunswick terminal. But these price spikes and severe stresses on the Northeast system demonstrate one more time how the pipeline network that delivers natural gas to New England remains inadequate. Today we conclude our analysis of the region’s gas pipeline situation by examining projects in the wings that together could provide the robust, reliable gas supply New England longs for.
The wide scale adoption of crude-by-rail transportation since 2012 means that in the U.S. alone by the end of 2013 more than 740 Mb/d was being shipped to market by railroads or about 11 percent of domestic production (source: American Railroads Association). That percentage will continue to increase. RBN Energy research indicates that around 171 rail loading and offloading terminals have been built or are under development throughout North America since 2011. Pipeline infrastructure build out and increased regulatory scrutiny of rail tank car safety have not slowed the use of rail in production regions such as the North Dakota Bakken. Today we review the new RBN Energy Drill-Down report on crude by rail.
RBN Energy is branching out! Today we are launching our new premium services package called Backstage Pass. Just like it sounds, this new service gets you deep into the details of the data and models we put together at RBN, providing what we believe is a whole new level of information access, insights and connections across energy markets. Don’t panic. The blog is still free. But if you are like the many RBN members that have asked for a much broader range of services, then you will be happy to learn that the answer is now ‘yes’. We are rolling out the service with what we believe is the definitive study assessing the crude-by-rail phenomenon. Learn everything you need to know about our new premium services in today’s blog. But be warned, this is an unabashed commercial plug for our new service. We hope you find it intriguing.
TransCanada currently owns just over 1 MMBbl of crude storage at Hardisty that is used to stage operations on the existing 580 Mb/d Keystone pipeline to the US. With two huge new pipelines planned to originate at Hardisty – the 830 Mb/d Keystone XL (still awaiting Presidential approval) and the 1.1 MMb/d Energy East potentially coming online in the next four years, the company is rapidly expanding Hardisty capacity. At the same time Gibson Energy and US Development Group are building a 120 Mb/d rail terminal close by to Hardisty that will give Canadian producers the option to bypass pipeline congestion. Today we describe these companies’ infrastructure plans.
The golden years of natural gas abundance are off and running, with export projects, new industrial proposals, new power generation use, and expanded transportation use - all building on a perception of long-term abundant supply at reasonable prices. Does it all work out in the end? Do supply and demand balance at stable, affordable prices, even with a lot more demand? Today we examine the likelihood that gas producers can provide adequate supplies without causing significant upward pressure on prices.
This winter the Northeast US is being blasted with record cold weather. As a result, daily natural gas prices in both New York and New England have spiked more than $30/MMBtu above the US benchmark at Henry Hub, LA. But the average price you’ll pay for natural gas in the region will likely depend on whether you root for the New York Giants or the New England Patriots. With their dismal records and embarrassing mistakes, it’s not easy being a Giants (or Jets) fan these days. But on average – thanks to new gas pipeline capacity added this past fall, natural gas prices in New Jersey and New York have remained less volatile relative to US benchmark Henry Hub, LA than prices in New England. That is because the six-state region continues to suffer from woefully inadequate gas transmission infrastructure. Today we begin a two-part analysis of the still-stalled effort to deliver more supplies to gas-hungry New England.
So you are feeling pretty good about 2014, eh? Stock market on a tear. Most U.S. energy markets relatively stable. Gaps in the oil and gas infrastructure getting filled. Well let’s not get cocky. U.S. energy markets are still in the middle of a revolutionary transformation from shortage to surplus. Where there are big shifts, there are big market disruptions. And in such disruptions, there are always winners and losers. You don’t want to be on the short end of that stick. So in our time honored tradition – the second year in a row – we again stick our collective RBN necks out to peer into the crystal ball to see what 2014 may hold.
On this, the last day of 2013 we thought it would be interesting to look back at the 250 or so RBN blogs posted this year to see which ones had the highest hit rates. When a blog article gets a lot of hits – some up to 17,000 or more – it tells you something about what is going on in the market. So like we did last year, we’ll take a page out of Casey Kasem’s playbook to look back at the top blogs of 2013 based on numbers of website hits.
This year has seen the WTI discount to Brent trading in a range from $23/Bbl in February to less than $1/Bbl in July then back out to $19/Bbl in November. On Friday (December 27, 2013) the WTI discount to Brent was $11.85/Bbl. During the year the spread behaved differently in three distinct periods - reflecting changes in the fundamentals as well as market sentiment. Today we review how the granddaddy of crude spreads fared this year.
NGL volumes continue to climb because of all the surging “wet” shale gas production. These days about 7% of gas plant NGL production is “isobutane”, (also known as IC4, I Grade, methylpropane, R600a, iso and “izo” to our friends in Canada). Over the past two years gas plant production of iso is up about 25%, and that volume is expected to increase another 30% over the next two years. Most isobutane is used by refineries to make high-octane alkylate, but what about the rest? Today we take a closer look at this lesser known natural gas liquid (NGL) and the sometimes exotic uses it is put to.
As North American supplies of natural gas continue to grow, more industrial, commercial, institutional and residential customers who do not burn natural gas for heating or process use want to participate in the economic savings associated with natural gas versus alternate fuels such as heating oil or propane. Complications in the process of installing pipeline infrastructure are slowing the rollout of direct gas line service. Today we describe natural gas distribution alternatives.
Hardisty is the largest oil storage hub in Canada with over 21 MMBbl of tank capacity owned by seven companies. The largest player Enbridge has more than 12 MMBbl of storage with the majority being leased to third parties including a sizeable chunk to investment bankers JP Morgan. Western Canadian Select (WCS) the benchmark Canadian heavy crude is blended at Husky’s Hardisty terminal. Today we detail these two companies’ operations at Hardisty.
If the flood of new crude arriving at the Gulf Coast during the first six months of 2014 overwhelms refiners in the region, then the pricing consequences may very well be quite radical. Could prices at the Gulf Coast flip to trade at a discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude delivered at the Cushing hub that is home to the CME NYMEX contract? Even if Gulf Coast crude retains its premium over WTI, deep discounts may be required to encourage refiners to process increasing quantities of light sweet crude. A downward spiral of crude prices could ensue. Today we lay out possible price scenarios.
The U.S. can make a lot more ethane than it can consume. Producers are drilling for ‘wet’ shale gas, high in natural gas liquid (NGL) content – with ethane making up more than half of that NGL volume. Unfortunately there is not enough U.S. petrochemical cracking capacity to use all that ethane. And for a whole variety of reasons the product has been notoriously difficult to export. Consequently, over 250Mb/d of ethane is being rejected – sold as natural gas instead of being processed into liquid ethane. What if there were a ready market for all this surplus ethane supply, just waiting to open its doors? Well, there just may be. The emerging U.S. LNG export market may be able to absorb a big portion of the supply imbalance, and make LNG buyers happy at the same time. In this blog series we will explore that possibility and consider the implications for the ethane market in North America.