The multibillion-dollar acquisitions that have become almost routine in the upstream sector the past few years are typically accompanied by asset rationalization — in other words, a thoughtful look at which elements of the pro forma company make sense followed by the divestiture of those that don’t. In many cases, a key aim of that rationalization process is trimming any debt associated with the acquisition itself. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the big steps Chevron has been taking to rework its portfolio — and sell off up to $15 billion in assets — as it inches toward closing on its $60 billion purchase of Hess Corp.
Financial
Bad Moon Rising - Oil Producers Focus on High-Grading Crude Portfolio as Gas Price Impact is Minimal
Monday, 10/21/2024
The upcoming presidential election has filled the airways with discussions around crucial issues, some with dramatic short-term (yet highly variable) impacts and others that will play out over several years. The impact of the critical short-term issue facing oil and gas producers today — historically low natural gas prices — varies depending on the structure of individual company portfolios. In today’s RBN blog, the last of our four-part series, we analyze the effect of lower gas prices on the revenues, cash flows, investment, leverage and cash allocation of Oil-Weighted E&Ps and discuss how they are adapting.
Wednesday, 9/25/2024
The recent bankruptcy filing by Tupperware, once a staple of nearly every kitchen, is yet another reminder that long-term corporate success depends on managing through the ever-changing business environment. Many blogs have been written about the ultimate impact on oil and gas producers of the decades-long shift to lower-carbon energy sources, but E&Ps face short-term challenges as well, one of which is the recent plunge in natural gas prices. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the effect of lower gas prices on the revenues, cash flows, investment, leverage and cash allocation of producers with a rough balance of oil and gas production and discuss how these Diversified producers are adapting.
Thursday, 9/19/2024
E&P investors have historically been a skittish lot, and for good reason. In the second half of the 2010s, the S&P E&P Index had as many sudden ups and downs as Coney Island’s famous Cyclone roller coaster, culminating in a near crash in early 2020 as equity prices bottomed out at one-tenth their peak. A fairly smooth annual return of nearly 7% over the 2021-to-Q2 2024 period has wooed money back to a sector that now prioritizes shareholder returns. But wariness remains, especially as natural gas prices cratered to three-decade summer lows. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the balance sheets and budgets of the U.S. gas-focused producers we track to determine if there are causes for concern.
Wednesday, 9/04/2024
One of the most compelling Greek myths is the story of Sisyphus, a man condemned by the gods to eternally push a giant boulder to the top of a mountain, only to have it crash back down to the valley just short of his goal. His plight is not a bad metaphor for the long-term historical trend of U.S. E&Ps, which neared pinnacles of financial stability in 1999, 2008, 2014 and 2020 — just before price drops sent returns plunging. Producers seem to have ducked out from under the curse recently, recording record post-pandemic profits in 2021 and 2022, then settling into an extended period of stable, elevated returns. However, deteriorating gas realizations have at least paused the boulder’s climb for all E&Ps and sent it rolling back for gas-weighted producers. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the overall positive returns for Oil-Weighted and Diversified producers and the more dramatic impact of low pricing on the Gas-Weighted E&Ps.
Friday, 8/30/2024
Through a pair of newly announced, multibillion-dollar acquisitions, ONEOK is following up on its game-changing purchase of Magellan Midstream Partners by gaining additional scale, significantly increasing its role in NGLs and adding a huge crude oil gathering system in the Permian. The new deals are designed in large part to help ONEOK “feed and fill” its gas processing plants, takeaway pipelines and fractionators. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the details and implications of ONEOK’s newly announced plan to acquire EnLink Midstream and Medallion Midstream.
Thursday, 8/15/2024
There’s been a frenzy of M&A activity in the Permian Basin the past couple of years, and in recent months many of the acquiring E&Ps have reviewed their expanded base of assets, determined which acreage, wells and future well sites are core to their business going forward, and initiated the process of divesting the rest. At the same time, others — including some producers that were part of the merger mania — are on the hunt for what they see as underappreciated assets with the potential to shine. Folks, we’re in the early stages of what you might call “The Great Permian Reshuffling” — a rapid-fire exchange of upstream assets in the nation’s most prolific shale play. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss a few of the most noteworthy “bolt-on” deals and what they tell us.
Big City Stripper - Diversified Energy Co. Plots Growth Through Culling, Harvesting Mature Gas Wells
Friday, 8/02/2024
The term “exploration and production company” has been widely used for only four or five decades, but the activities it represents have a history that dates back to the first oil well drilled by Edwin Drake in Titusville, PA, in 1859. Ever since that world-changing event, discovering and developing new sources of oil and gas has remained the industry’s passion, exemplified by wildcatters and, more recently, by the technological wizards of the Shale Revolution. To this day, every major public upstream company still invests in finding and developing reserves — except one. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the unique approach taken by Diversified Energy Co., which has grown substantially by ignoring the “E” part of E&P.
Monday, 7/15/2024
There’s been a frenetic scramble among oil and gas producers through the early 2020s to acquire top-tier acreage and production assets they think they will need to survive and thrive. Some of those acquisitions are still being done through smaller deals such as acreage swaps, but the expansion mode of choice for most has been big-time M&A, which in a single multibillion-dollar deal can add years to a company’s inventory life or perhaps give it a stronger foothold in a key production region or two. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss Devon Energy’s recently announced $5 billion acquisition of Grayson Mill Energy, yet another private-equity-backed E&P cashing in on the smart moves it has been making.
Friday, 7/12/2024
The Uinta Basin is no Permian when it comes to drilling activity and production volumes, but the folks behind what may be the biggest M&A deal in Uinta history say the oil-production economics in parts of the quirky-as-heck play in northeastern Utah compare very favorably with the best of the Permian’s Delaware and Midland basins. And where else will an astounding 85%-plus of the produced hydrocarbons come out of the ground as high-quality waxy crude? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the recently announced plan by SM Energy and non-op specialist Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) to acquire XCL Resources in a pair of deals valued at $2.55 billion.
Monday, 7/08/2024
While many larger E&Ps have been growing bigger through massive, headline-grabbing acquisitions, EOG Resources — by market cap, the second-largest non-integrated U.S. producer — has been expanding for a quarter century now by focusing on the stealthy exploration and development of new resource plays. The results of EOG’s long-standing strategy have been impressive, and include finding and development (F&D) costs that are significantly lower than its Oil-Weighted peer group and a higher-than-average reserve replacement rate. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the scope and impact of EOG’s singular focus on organic growth instead of M&A.
Wednesday, 6/26/2024
After thoroughly alienating their investor base over more than two decades of boom-and-bust cycles, U.S. E&Ps won investors back in the early 2020s by radically transforming themselves from high-risk to high-yield vehicles. Fueled by surging crude oil and natural gas prices in 2022, producers generated massive free cash flows — and spectacular shareholder returns that topped 10% during the late-2022 peak. Prices and cash flows subsequently retreated, however, and skeptics worried about the sustainability of producers’ high-return strategy. Would debt repayment, dividends and share buybacks sink? In today’s RBN blog, we‘ll review the Q1 2024 cash allocation of the major U.S. E&Ps with a spotlight on current dividend yields.
Friday, 6/21/2024
No doubt about it, most of the headline-grabbing oil and gas M&A activity lately has involved large, publicly owned producers gobbling up other good-sized E&Ps, lock, stock and barrel. But there are other ways to increase scale and improve operational efficiency, as evidenced by privately held WildFire Energy’s bolt-on acquisition frenzy in the relatively sleepy northeastern Eagle Ford, aka the East Eagle Ford. In less than three years, with one bolt-on acquisition after another, WildFire — named in anticipation of the company’s aggressive expansion strategy — has morphed from a small player in the often-overlooked area into one of the largest producers there, with a laser focus on maximizing returns to its management and private-equity owners. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the E&P and its rapid rise.
Wednesday, 6/05/2024
A macro view of U.S. exploration and production (E&P) company performance over the last quarter century reveals repetitive boom-and-bust cycles driven by periodic extremes in crude oil pricing, including price crashes in 2008, 2014 and 2020. That history contrasts with the remarkable stability in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) realizations since mid-2021 as the industry got its footing post-pandemic. Assisted by a new commitment to financial discipline, producers have generated relatively stable, historically solid overall quarterly earnings and cash flows. But the devil’s in the details, and in today’s RBN blog we delve into peer group and individual company performance as well as overall industry trends for Q1 2024.
Tuesday, 6/04/2024
Permian-focused M&A activity may grab all the headlines, but don’t forget about the Eagle Ford. Over the past couple of years, a steady stream of big-dollar deals have been announced in the South Texas shale play, most of them tied to efforts by growth-oriented E&Ps to increase their scale, improve their operational efficiency and expand their inventory of top-tier drilling sites. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, the dealmaking has continued this spring, most recently with Crescent Energy’s announcement that it will be acquiring SilverBow Resources.