Recent seasonal averages on the CME NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas forward curve show just an 8 cents/MMBtu spread between next winter (2014/2015) and this summer (2014) – a number that provides very little incentive for storage injection. Things don’t look much better for storage spreads further out on the curve either with an average spread over the next 10 years of just 33 cents/MMBtu. Today we analyze storage spreads over the past 6 years.
Daily Energy Blog
With natural gas production in Marcellus/Utica on a steep upward curve, midstream companies are developing plans to rework their existing pipelines or build new ones to help move the region’s gas to market. No stone is being left unturned. Today we conclude our five-part series on moving Marcellus/Utica gas south and west with a look at Columbia Pipeline Group and Boardwalk Pipeline Partners plans, sum up the takeaway capacity being added in the 2014-17 period, and explore whether additional pipeline-network enhancements will be needed after the current round of projects is up and running.
The current forward curve (June 9,2014) for CME NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures shows prices at $4.645/MMBtu for July 2014 then increasing through January 2015 to $4.776/MMBtu before falling back to $4.636/MMBtu at the end of next winter in March 2015. Then they take a nosedive and drop 48 cents in April 2015. From that point out forward curve prices are lower than they have been over the past 6 years – falling $1.24/MMBtu lower than last year’s curve at this time by the end of 2023. And the curve is flat - seasonality in today’s curves is also a shadow of it’s former self. Today we look at natural gas forward curves over the past six years.
Sitting within or near the Marcellus/Utica shale gas play and facing tightening environmental rules that start kicking in next April, power generators in the PJM (a large region that includes the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia and Ohio as well as parts of Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan) and New York electricity markets very likely will burn increasing amounts of natural gas the next few years. But with pressure to rebuild depleted gas inventories after this year’s Polar Vortex winter and the next wave of coal-unit retirements still months away, to what degree will generators in the region turn to gas this summer? In this episode in our gas power burn series, we provide a progress report on gas-inventory rebuilding and look at this summer’s coal-versus-gas dynamics in PJM and New York.
With the Northeast natural gas market now dominated by physical flows from the Marcellus/Utica, Appalachia producers are targeting the Midwest, the Southeast and—the biggest prize of all—the LNG export projects under development along the Gulf Coast. Getting gas to market, however, requires a top-to-bottom re-plumbing of interstate pipelines originally designed to move gas from the Gulf Coast, not to it. In today’s episode of our series on moving gas out of the Marcellus/Utica we look at plans to add bi-directionality to pipelines within the Midwest and to the Gulf.
The southern half of the Eastern Seaboard is a logical market for the natural gas surplus that will be flowing out of the Marcellus/Utica in coming years. Annual gas consumption in the fast-growing Maryland-to-Florida region now tops 8.7 Bcf/d and is rising quickly, largely due to the ongoing shift from coal-fired to gas-fired power generation. The region is close to major gas production areas in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, and already has Williams’ Transco mainline, the gas-transportation equivalent of an eight-lane highway, as well as other Trunkline interstate pipes running right through it. In this episode of our series on moving gas out of the Marcellus/Utica, we look at pipeline projects Williams and others are planning to transport gas to Southeast consumers.
Surging natural gas production volumes in the Marcellus/Utica will need to move in just about every direction. No single market—not the Northeast, the Midwest, the Southeast, or even the Gulf Coast—is big enough to absorb it all. Midstream companies are considering every cost-effective way to replumb and expand their existing pipelines to add takeaway capacity, and when still more is needed, are turning to greenfield projects. In this, the first of several company-by-company episodes on who is planning what, we examine Spectra Energy’s plans to add at least 2 Bcf/d of new Marcellus/Utica takeaway capacity by 2017, and maybe another 2 or 3 Bcf/d by the end of the decade.
Natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica region continues to increase sharply. Appalachian gas is already dominating markets in the Northeast – helped by a series of infrastructure projects already largely in place or underway. Now producers in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia need to reach additional customers to their south and west--including potentially the biggest prize of all, the LNG export terminals being developed on the Gulf Coast. Gas pipeline takeaway capacity out of Marcellus/Utica has been added in fits and starts to date, but the need for new southern and western outlets for gas from the region is now evident, and midstream companies are planning long line, bi-directional projects with a combined capacity of more than 9 Bcf/d. In this new series, we consider this next round of pipeline projects out of the Marcellus/Utica.
Power generation has surged as a market for natural gas in recent years, and gas-fired generation has become the largest single source of generation capacity. So coordinating the two industries, or “Gas-Electric Harmonization” has been around as an issue for quite some time. But while pipelines, generators, and shippers have been arguing about a host of complicated (and pretty boring) issues for about 20 years, the subject has really heated up lately, and has the potential to cause some maj
There is talk that natural gas flaring in the Bakken is peaking and will soon start to decline. But even the most optimistic forecast has the share of gas being flared falling from the current 30% plus to between 5 and 10% by 2020. That goal is still 10 to 20 times the 0.5% share of gas being flared in Texas. Can more be done to reduce Bakken flaring to Texas levels? Today we look at what it would take to slow Bakken flaring to a flicker.
The Jordan Cove LNG project in coastal Oregon is the first “greenfield” US LNG export project—and the first on the West Coast--to win the Department of Energy’s approval to export to non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) nations. That approval is critical for an LNG exporter focused on Asian markets, because the only FTA countries in that region are South Korea and Singapore. But can Jordan Cove compete with Sabine Pass and other Gulf Coast projects with existing LNG tankage and therefore lower capital costs? Today we consider the economics behind the project.
From space the light thrown off by Bakken gas flaring makes sparsely populated western North Dakota look like Minneapolis-St. Paul. But the gathering pipelines, the processing plants and the interstate pipelines needed to transport Bakken gas to market are finally being built, and within a few years the glow of gas flaring in the region is expected to dim. Today we continue our review of gas flaring in the Bakken with a focus on increased efforts to move Bakken gas to processing plants and consumers.
The success of an LNG export project is founded on many things. Good connections to natural gas supply. Easy access to LNG buyers. A competitive delivered cost. Timing matters too, and may turn out to be a critical factor for Veresen’s Jordan Cove LNG export project in Oregon. Not only is it the first greenfield project to win the approval of the US Department of Energy (earlier DOE approvals went to projects to convert existing import terminals to export facilities), Jordan Cove also would be the first new LNG export terminal on the US West Coast—days closer to key buyers in the Asia/Pacific region than its Gulf Coast competitors. And it appears likely to beat out the first LNG export projects in British Columbia. Today in the first of a two-part blog series, we take a look at the Jordan Cove plan—its gas supply sources, the pipelines feeding it, the project’s economics, and its likely fate.
Despite the challenges they would likely face, as many as four companies are exploring the possibility of exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Canadian Maritimes [1] to Europe, Latin America and Asia. Their thinking is, with Marcellus natural gas production expected to continue increasing, with Sable Island and Deep Panuke gas just offshore, and Europe little more than a week’s boat ride away, LNG exports from Nova Scotia and New Brunswick may well make economic sense. But LNG export terminals are among the most capital-intensive projects; also, piping Marcellus gas through New England—a region with serious wintertime gas-delivery constraints—to the Maritimes would require major pipeline upgrades. Today we look into the LNG project plans and the pipeline expansion needs in more detail.
Last week (ending April 4) the summer 2014 natural gas storage injection season began with a whimper by adding 4 Bcf to empty tanks pummeled by the Polar Vortex. That was a slower than expected start to the Herculean task of replenishing gas stocks before next winter. A lot of factors will have to fall into place for that to happen. A too-hot summer could pull gas away from injection and into demand for power burn. Today we continue our analysis of regional power burn prospects with a look at New England demand this year.