RBN Energy
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Friday, 9/05/2025
Thursday, 9/04/2025
Which is true, A or B? (A) Data center demand to power AI applications is the most transformative force to hit energy markets in years, or (B) This is one of the most overhyped, inflated narratives ever. We hear a constant stream of announcements, promotions and proclamations from developers, tech giants, utilities and politicians, many predicting a revolutionary surge in electricity and gas demand that will change everything. At the same time, others warn of a speculative bubble destined to pop. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, sorting out which side is closer to reality is one of the most important questions facing U.S. energy markets.
Analyst Insights
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
By Jeremy Meier - Friday, 9/05/2025 (3:15 pm)
US oil and gas rig count opened the new month with a small gain, adding one rig vs. a week ago and climbing to 537 for the week ending September 5 according to Baker Hughes. Rigs were added in the Haynesville (+1) and All Other (+1), while the Permian (-1) was the only basin to post a decline.
By Martin King - Friday, 9/05/2025 (2:30 pm)
For the week of September 5, Baker Hughes reported that the Western Canadian gas-directed rig count rose three to 58 (blue line and text in left hand chart below), nine less than one year ago and is the lowest for this time of year since 2020.
Daily Energy Blog
Wednesday, 11/01/2023
Category:
Natural Gas
LNG export projects looking to take a positive final investment decision (FID) need to sell a high proportion of their nameplate capacity under long-term contracts to ensure sufficient cash flows to underpin the project and obtain financing. U.S.-based projects (new and expansions) totaling more than 350 million tons per annum (MMtpa, 48.3 Bcf/) — against a current global market of 400 MMtpa (52.9 Bcf/d) — are vying for creditworthy offtakers from multiple markets in their pre-FID deliberations. The sense of urgency among project sponsors has been boosted by the Russia/Ukraine war and a potentially resurgent Chinese economy, both of which should promise a bright future for new projects. Plenty of those have reached FID in the last couple of years, but what is holding others back from taking the same step? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at some of the factors impacting those decisions and the long-term implications that flow from them.
New York State of Mind - New York Will Need Unprecedented Increase in Wind, Solar to Hit 2030 Target
Tuesday, 10/31/2023
Category:
Renewables
Every state has its unique set of advantages and challenges, but very few face the number of contrasts that makes New York and its ambitious decarbonization goals so interesting. The Empire State ranks fourth in population (behind California, Texas and Florida) and is home to the biggest city in the country, yet most of the state would be considered rural. It has the nation's third-largest economy, but because its key industries — including financial and business services — are not energy-intensive, and many in the New York City area use mass transit, its per-capita energy use is lower than all but two states (Hawaii and Rhode Island). And while the state gets about 30% of its power from renewable sources (most of it large-scale hydropower), solar and wind generation are still very limited there. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the state’s plans to ramp up renewable generation — which have long been plagued by problems with incentives, permitting and project cancellations — are running headlong into the difficulties of adding so many resources in a short period of time.
Monday, 10/30/2023
Category:
Renewables
When Navigator CO2 Ventures decided to pull the plug on its long-planned Heartland Greenway project, a vast network that would have captured carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from dozens of ethanol producers in the Midwest and Great Plains then piped them hundreds of miles for permanent sequestration, it was a significant setback for the Biden administration’s climate goals. More than that, it showed how large-scale carbon-capture projects face opposition from seemingly all sides and how the lack of a meaningful regulatory framework at the federal level only adds to the industry’s challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the Heartland Greenway cancellation, what it says about the future of similar projects, and what regulatory changes might be needed at the federal level to make large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) a reality.
Friday, 10/27/2023
Category:
Natural Gas
Certified or differentiated natural gas — an upgrade from the old “responsibly sourced gas” — is on the rise. More and more producers, pipeline companies, gas utilities and LNG exporters and buyers want their gas to be certified as having a lower emissions profile, and for a variety of reasons, chief among them achieving their ESG goals and winning over ESG-minded investors and customers. But while there’s a consensus that methane and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can and should be reduced significantly, there are differing views about the best ways to monitor wells, pipelines and other infrastructure for methane leaks, measure total emissions, and ensure that emission reductions are real and sustainable. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our deep dive on certified/differentiated gas with a look at the approaches the leading certification/differentiation entities and others are taking in emission monitoring, measuring and scoring.
Thursday, 10/26/2023
Category:
Natural Gas
Continued growth in Permian crude oil production can’t happen without sufficient infrastructure — not just takeaway capacity for crude, natural gas and NGLs but also the capacity to process the fast-increasing volumes of associated gas being produced in the Midland and Delaware basins. The incremental need for processing capacity is enormous, as evidenced by the ongoing, almost frenetic build-out of gas processing plants across the Permian. More than 1 Bcf/d of new capacity is slated to come online by the end of this year, with another 1.9 Bcf/d in the first half of 2024 and another 1.8 Bcf/d after that. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the race to add processing plants in key locations in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico and the drivers behind it.
Wednesday, 10/25/2023
Category:
Financial
Rumors about potential oil and gas mergers are always swirling, but the announcement of ExxonMobil’s record-breaking deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources a couple of weeks ago generated a fever pitch of speculation about potential matchups. In the past week, we’ve seen media reports of possible courtships between Devon Energy and Marathon Oil and then Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy. However, it was Chevron that shocked the oil patch by swiping right on former integrated oil company Hess Corp., opting for a $60 billion acquisition of an E&P with no Permian Basin exposure. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the drivers and implications of what is now the second-largest U.S. upstream transaction ever.
Tuesday, 10/24/2023
Category:
Renewables
Plans to greatly expand the production of low-carbon energy and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be found just about everywhere, from national and international policy discussions to debates at the state and local levels. Given the potential for dramatic economic, social, and geopolitical impacts over the coming decades, it’s no surprise that top-down mandates for a transition to a more renewables-centric energy mix and away from fossil fuels can stir up concern over the pace, scale, and ultimate effectiveness of such a massive undertaking. In some places, like California, critical voices are largely drowned out. In other spots, apprehension may fester just below the surface. But in a state like Texas that identifies so closely with the energy industry, the conversation is right out in the open. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how that debate is playing out in Texas, where renewable energy is booming in a state known for fossil fuels.
Monday, 10/23/2023
Category:
Financial
Ongoing M&A activity in the upstream portion of the oil and gas industry has garnered a lot of attention, most recently regarding ExxonMobil’s planned $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources. But there’s also been a lot of consolidation in the midstream space as the companies that gather, process, transport, store and export hydrocarbons seek to gain the scale, scope and synergies they think they will need to succeed in an increasingly competitive industry. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our newly released Drill Down report on the major midstream deals of 2022 and 2023 to date.
Friday, 10/20/2023
Category:
Natural Gas
Storage has long been a critically important balancing mechanism in the Lower 48 natural gas market. Now, after languishing for much of the Shale Era, storage values are coming out of the doldrums. The key driver behind this change is that, unlike in the old days, when the storage market was driven primarily by the intrinsic value of capacity — i.e., the need to sock away gas in the lower-demand summer months for use in the peak winter months — the value of storage is being driven almost exclusively by extrinsic economics — i.e., how flexible and responsive capacity allows market participants to manage supply and demand during short-term market swings. This flexibility and responsiveness have become increasingly important criteria for ensuring reliability as LNG export facilities and an increasingly renewables-heavy power sector navigate frequent demand fluctuations day to day, or even intraday, as well as during high-stakes, extreme weather events like 2021’s Winter Storm Uri. In today’s RBN blog, we delve into the fundamental shifts influencing today’s storage market.
Thursday, 10/19/2023
Category:
Refined Fuels
Many governments around the world are looking for ways to incentivize reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and two approaches have received the most attention: cap-and-trade and a carbon tax. The European Union (EU) has chosen the former, Canada has opted for the latter, and the U.S. — well, that’s still to be determined. It’s logical for oil and gas producers, refiners and others in carbon-intensive industries to wonder, what does it all mean for us? In today’s RBN blog, we look at Canada’s carbon tax (which it refers to as a “carbon price”), explain how it works, and examine its current and future impacts on oil sands producers, bitumen upgraders and refiners.
Wednesday, 10/18/2023
Category:
Renewables
If you’re vying for billions in federal dollars, a predictable selection process with measurable criteria is probably what you’re hoping to see. And while there was much speculation about what projects would be ultimately picked for the Department of Energy’s (DOE) regional clean hydrogen hubs initiative, H2Hubs, the selections made October 13 included no curve balls and matched the agency’s previous guidance. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the selections and how they fit into the DOE’s stated criteria.
Tuesday, 10/17/2023
Category:
Renewables
Second chances don’t always come around, but when they do, you’d do well to learn from your previous experiences and make the most of them. For the Petra Nova carbon-capture/enhanced-oil-recovery (EOR) project southwest of Houston, its previous three-year run largely confirmed the preconceived notions of critics as a highly touted project that fell short of expectations for a variety of economic and technical reasons. But it also enjoyed some significant successes, and now the facility has been given a second life, courtesy of a new owner and higher oil prices. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the long-awaited restart of the Petra Nova project, what its owner hopes to gain from it, and what it could mean for the carbon-capture industry.
Monday, 10/16/2023
Category:
Renewables
It makes perfect sense, really. If you’re planning to build a large, low-carbon ammonia production facility that’s targeting the export market, why not site it alongside the Gulf Coast’s leading deepwater ammonia terminal? That helps to explain why INPEX Corp., LSB Industries, Air Liquide and Vopak Moda Houston — the last a joint venture of Royal Vopak and Moda Midstream that recently developed the ammonia terminal — are collaborating on the development of a planned 1.1 million ton per annum (1.1 MMtpa) clean ammonia production plant along the Houston Ship Channel. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the proposed production facility, the markets its clean ammonia would serve, and the benefits of building the project at an existing terminal.
Friday, 10/13/2023
Category:
Financial
Sometimes, courtship is better the second time around. After some previous rumors and flirting with a deal in the spring of 2023, ExxonMobil, the largest international integrated oil company, reached an agreement to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, the largest pure-play Permian producer, for $64.5 billion, the largest-ever U.S. upstream transaction. In today’s blog, we analyze the deal that would make ExxonMobil the top Permian producer, including shifts in the focus and depth of its upstream portfolio, the integration with its existing midstream and downstream infrastructure, and its energy transition goals.
Thursday, 10/12/2023
Category:
Renewables
The uncertainties around solar power are well understood. When the sun doesn’t shine as much as expected, power grids that rely heavily on solar must turn elsewhere to meet consumer demand. And while a shortfall in solar generation can be tricky to navigate, the difference between actual and forecast levels is typically only a few percentage points, and power grids are usually ready and able to make up any difference. But what happens when the daytime sun is obscured for hours at a time? Much of the U.S. is about to find out. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll preview the path of the October 14 solar eclipse, detail its expected impact on the generation of electricity, and describe what steps are being taken to keep power grids performing as usual.