

Before data centers were the hot topic everywhere, Virginia was already rolling out the red carpet and it seemed that tech firms were constructing facilities as fast as humanly possible, drawn by the state’s robust fiber-optic network and low power prices. But while other states are racing to catch up, Virginia may be hitting the brakes. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what makes Virginia so “sweet” for data center developers, their impact on the state, and efforts by some to slow progress.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
Dry natural gas production in the Permian Basin averaged 22 Bcf/d for the week ended September 29, down slightly from the week prior, with small changes across most pipelines in the basin last week. The past few weeks, El Paso Pipeline has been the primary driver of lower supply.
For the week of September 26, Baker Hughes reported that the Western Canadian gas-directed rig count was unchanged at 60 (blue line and text in left hand chart below), five less than one year ago and is holding at its highest point since mid-March.
Last week (February 2013) EOG Resources told analysts that most Eagle Ford oil production should be classified as condensate rather than crude oil. They backed up their assertion with a chart of production quantity and API quality indicating 70 percent of production is condensate. Current forecasts indicate that translates to condensate production of over 500Mb/d in South Texas during 2013. Today we examine the evidence that EOG presented.
Last week we held the first RBN School of Energy at the St. Regis hotel in Houston. Based on the feedback we received it was a huge success, achieving the goals we laid out for the conference. Today we’ll report on the conference itself, and review some of the most important points covered in the curriculum. Warning, this blog could (and should) be considered an advertorial, so read at your own risk.
On January 1st, 2013, California’s cap-and-trade program for Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) went live and West Coast energy markets entered a whole new world. Wholesale electricity prices in California increased 20% as a result and other energy markets have felt the impact. For example, the new rules pushed up the average cost of refining oil by $0.78/bbl. For companies subject to the regulations, the bottom line is that if you generate GHG, you pay. But exactly who pays, how much you pay, and when you pay are all subject to a dizzying array of rules and regulations. Today we’ll navigate the turbulent and uncharted seas of California cap-and-trade markets.
Alkylate is a valuable blending component that accounts for about 12 percent of the US gasoline pool. Alkylate is manufactured by combining elements derived from NGLs and crude oil refining and is an important link between these two hydrocarbon markets. Alkylate has critical qualities required to meet complex modern gasoline quality specifications. Today we look at the qualities and manufacture of alkylate.
Total crude oil shipped out from the South Texas Port of Corpus Christi increased 19 fold between November 2011 and November 2012 from 2.1 MMBbl to 36 MMBbl. All of that crude is coming from the Eagle Ford shale oil basin 70 miles north of Corpus in the form of light crude or condensate via pipeline. Six marine terminals have been built or expanded at Corpus but can they handle the traffic jam? Today we review how the Port is coping.
Canada imports as much as 2 Bcf/d of natural gas from the US in the region around the Dawn trading hub. The Dawn system has traditionally been fed by Western Canadian supplies and long haul pipelines from the US Gulf, Midwest and the Rockies. Marcellus gas can already reach Dawn via the border crossing at Niagara to the East. The Nexus Gas Transmission project will bring 1 Bcf/d directly into Dawn from the Utica. Today we detail the changing flows.
In the space of just over one year North Dakota crude rail takeaway capacity has reached close to 1 MMBb/d. According to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority 58 percent of October 2012 Williston Basin production of over 800 Mb/d was transported out of North Dakota by rail. There are now 18 crude loading terminals operating in North Dakota on the BNSF and Canadian Pacific (CP) railroads. Today we continue our series on crude by rail with a North Dakota terminal inventory.
Could the construction of new production capacity for one chemical product result in a 1.4 Bcf/d increase in natural gas demand? Yes it could - if all the methanol plants that have been announced and are on the drawing board get built. Of course, it is pretty unlikely that they will all get built, but even if only the best projects are completed, they will still consume a lot of gas. Today we’ll lay out the new plant construction numbers.
Last Thursday (January 31, 2013) a high frequency trading event about 400 milliseconds before the scheduled EIA Storage data release set off a frenzy of selling in the NYMEX Natural Gas futures market. Some analysts believe that the storage report could have been leaked. Others blamed computer timing issues. These events resurrected ghosts of EIA storage numbers past and inspired our examination of these developments in the context of the evolution of high frequency trading in energy markets.
U.S. gas plant production of propane is up 25% since early 2011, far above growing volumes of ethane, held to only an 8% rise by rejection economics. As propane supplies have surged, prices have come down hard…. But not nearly as hard as would have been the case if it were not for rapidly increasing exports. And where are all these barrels going? That’s right. In a conga line of ships headed to Latin America where the growth in imports from the U.S. into some countries has been off the scale. Which countries are taking all this propane? How long can this go on? How much dock capacity does the U.S. need? What could derail this development? Today we begin a blog series to explore these questions.
The US energy midstream sector will remember 2012 as the “Year of the Tank Car”. Venerable pipeline companies were reduced to investing in rail terminals. Although reluctant at first, coastal refiners embraced the margin boost that crude by rail provides them. Producers signed up to move landlocked crudes by rail to coastal destinations in search of higher prices. Petroleum shipments increased 46 percent from 370 M carloads in 2011 to 540 M carloads in 2012. Rail car manufacturers struggled to meet an order book of 40,000 rail cars and the backlog for new delivery is 18 months. Today we begin a crude by rail series.
Canadian natural gas exports to the Northeast US fell from about 3Bcf/d in 2008 to around 1 Bcf/d in 2011 and have been at that level ever since. Last November significant US exports began to flow northward across the border into Canada at Niagara. Natural gas demand in Ontario is forecast to reach 3.25 Bcf/d by 2020. Today we describe how projects on the Canadian side will allow Marcellus gas to replace traditional Western Canadian supplies.
Back in October we posted a blog forecasting that the Brent/WTI price spread (at that time $22.76/Bbl) would narrow by the time of the Super Bowl (see Place Your Bets on Narrow Brent /WTI Spread for the Super Bowl). That turned out to be true (it is now $18.99/Bbl) but no Lambeau Leap for the RBN team. A $19 differential is still a big number, and the crude supply congestion in the Midwest that led to a wide WTI discount to Brent in the first place continues. Last week the congestion showed every sign of moving to Houston and staying there at least until the end of the year. Today we present our post-Super Bowl Brent/WTI spread analysis.
Eagle Ford pipeline takeaway capacity is four times production and local refinery consumption – an excess of over 1.3 MMb/d. More than 20 pipeline projects are already built or under construction to move Eagle Ford production to market. Today we review recent Genscape research on Eagle Ford infrastructure and assess the takeaway balance.
Growth in natural gas demand forecasts these days rely heavily on projections of increased power burn. Lack of coordination between the gas and electric industries threatens to limit that expansion. The greatest challenge is the security of gas supply to the generators and how that impacts reliability. Regional differences in the electric power market appear to make national regulations to secure gas supplies unworkable. Today we review FERC efforts to understand and perhaps attempt to standardize those regional differences.