The last three years have seen historic changes in the U.S. octane market. The wholesale value of octane, the primary yardstick of gasoline quality and price, spiked threefold in 2022, followed by another year of high values in 2023. The numbers for 2024 and (so far) 2025 have been more stable, but still historically high. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why retail octane values have risen so high and why refiners have been capturing only a small share of the corresponding increase.
Daily Energy Blog
Tuesday, 9/09/2025
The refining industry is complex and unpredictable. Recent plant closures in the U.S. and abroad, as well as mounting pressure to produce more renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), have shifted the landscape. In addition, an eight-year battle over CITGO’s three U.S. refineries has taken a new direction. Despite these shifts, the refining industry has remained resilient. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how refineries balance these changes and make choices to shape their future, the focus of our upcoming Refined Fuels Master Class. Warning: Today’s blog is a blatant advertorial.
Monday, 9/08/2025
Strong demand for refined products (especially jet fuel) in Arizona and refinery closures in Southern California have spurred the development of a new refined products pipeline from West Texas to the Phoenix area. ONEOK, whose acquisition of Magellan Midstream Partners made it a player in refined products, has announced an open season for the proposed Sun Belt Connector pipeline, which would expand PADD 2 and PADD 3 refiners’ access to premium markets out West. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss ONEOK’s plan and how it could impact refined products markets.
Friday, 9/05/2025
North America is an integrated energy market so deeply connected that it functions as one massive, interdependent system for the three “drillbit hydrocarbons”: crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. But the rapid changes happening in the market now — driven not only by supply/demand dynamics and evolving infrastructure but also regulatory policies and political pressures — mean it’s more important than ever to talk about how the ongoing relationship between the U.S. and Canada will evolve and strengthen in the coming years. That was the focus of our School of Energy Canada and the subject of today’s RBN blog. Warning: Today’s blog includes some blatant plugs for a newly available replay of our recent conference in Calgary.
Friday, 8/29/2025
Refineries in Europe, Latin America, Russia and China are facing a host of issues that could ultimately benefit U.S. refiners. Europe has high operating costs and political pressures. Attacks have damaged Russia’s refineries, and the country continues to get blasted with steeper sanctions. China’s aging plants are closing and there are no new large-scale projects on the horizon. Latin America lags in capacity growth. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how these global issues are boosting opportunities for U.S. refiners.
Wednesday, 8/13/2025
The U.S. refining industry has undergone a number of changes in recent years and more turbulence looks likely as global economic and trade patterns shift and energy transition moves forward. For some refineries, this has led to closures due to weak profits, rising regulatory costs and declining demand for products, particularly gasoline. But other refineries have prospered — and even invested in expansions — while the U.S. industry as a whole has evolved into the most competitive system in the world. Overall, the prospects have been very regionally (and even facility) specific. As detailed in the most recent Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, this regional differentiation will continue and shift over the coming years. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what we expect for the U.S. refining industry — where closures will likely take place, where the industry might actually add capacity, and the reasons for those actions.
Monday, 7/28/2025
It's an integrated energy market that stretches across the North American continent, from Texas and Florida to the mountains of British Columbia and Canada’s industrial heartland in Ontario/Quebec — a cross-border network so deeply connected, it functions as one massive, interdependent system for oil, natural gas and NGLs. That system is undergoing major shifts and challenges, driven not only by changing supply/demand dynamics and evolving infrastructure within the market itself, but also by powerful external forces, including regulatory policies and political pressures. That’s why we couldn’t think of a better time — or a better place — to host RBN’s 19th School of Energy than in Calgary next month. In today’s RBN blog — a blatant advertorial — we’ll highlight how our upcoming conference will dig into how the interconnected energy landscape is changing and why understanding those shifts is more critical than ever. You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet!
Friday, 7/25/2025
Expectations for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. took a sharp detour into uncharted territory earlier this month when President Trump signed the landmark budget reconciliation bill into law. Known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the law dramatically scales back EV subsidies, eliminates penalties for automakers that don’t meet fuel-efficiency standards, and significantly restricts state-level zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why the law is likely to slow the pace of EV adoption and impact forecasts for vehicle sales and gasoline demand — a key topic in the just-published Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice.
Wednesday, 7/16/2025
The bitter, eight-year battle to control CITGO Petroleum’s three U.S. refineries could soon be coming to an end. A Delaware court has recommended a $7.38 billion bid from Dalinar Energy Corp., the U.S. subsidiary of Canadian miner Gold Reserve Ltd. There’s opposition, but a final decision could be just weeks away. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what a resolution would mean for the three refineries, which have a combined capacity of more than 800 Mb/d.
Tuesday, 7/01/2025
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) took several steps in June to slash red tape and speed the construction of natural gas projects in the U.S. interstate and export markets. This is the latest in state and federal efforts to reduce the years-long legal battles around energy infrastructure and quicken the development of vital projects such as pipelines and LNG terminals. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll highlight the recent efforts to remake and improve the permitting process.
Friday, 6/27/2025
The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026-27 did more than just set renewable fuel mandates for the next two years, they included dramatic shifts in the way that imported fuels and feedstocks are handled and raised the likelihood of higher compliance costs during a time in which the federal government has been focused on keeping prices under control. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the critical changes that will affect imported biofuels and feedstocks and the potential cost impact.
Thursday, 5/22/2025
It’s been about a year and a half since Next Wave Energy Partners opened its Project Traveler facility, a milestone in the energy industry. Overall, Project Traveler has exceeded production expectations and proven the innovative approach of combining ethylene and isobutane to produce high-quality alkylate. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what’s been accomplished so far and dive into what’s ahead for Next Wave.
Thursday, 5/15/2025
Familiar corporate names like Cummins, Freightliner and Waste Management have joined forces with dozens of less-familiar public companies and startups to form what some might call a new U.S. industry. Thousands of commercial trucks powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) are on the roads nationwide, many of them filling up at dedicated fueling stations offering a compressed form of renewable natural gas (RNG), a cellulosic biofuel typically sourced from landfills and dairy farms. In today’s RBN blog, the third and final in our series on the D3 Renewable Identification Number (RIN), we show how this young industry could emerge as a commercial success for cellulosic biofuels, although political and regulatory risk remains.
Thursday, 5/08/2025
The Trump administration’s approach to economic policy — including tariff threats to longtime allies backed by sometimes shifting policy goals — might be a sound tactical move in the long run by keeping negotiators on edge and extracting better deals. But that approach has also heightened the sense of uncertainty about where things are headed, affecting investment and long-term planning. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how economic policy uncertainty has increased in the past few months and how it’s impacting activity in the energy sector.
Friday, 4/18/2025
The North American energy landscape has undergone significant shifts in production, infrastructure and pricing for crude oil, natural gas and NGLs over the past few years and developments within Canada have strengthened its role in the global energy trade, creating opportunities and reshaping supply chains. Yet, the market is constantly changing and today geopolitics and the potential impact of tariffs weigh heavily on the relationship between Canada and the U.S., North America’s two producing heavyweights. That shifting landscape is the subject of today’s RBN blog and a topic we’ll be discussing at our upcoming School of Energy Canada, set for August 26-27 in Calgary. Fair warning, this blog includes an unabashed advertorial for the conference.
