Daily Energy Blog

Refiners operating in the Permian Basin enjoyed healthy margins over the past four years as takeaway pipeline congestion discounted the price of local crude compared to market centers at Cushing, OK or the Gulf Coast. Although that trend reversed for a few months this summer when a shortage of crude at Midland caused prices to spike higher, the market is once again favoring local purchasers. As a result, refiners have invested in infrastructure to increase deliveries of local crude to their refineries as well as leveraging their gathering pipelines to double as takeaway routes for producers shipping outside the basin.  Today we continue our review of Permian infrastructure build out.

Over the past few years, midstream companies have responded to the boom in crude oil and lease condensate production in the Eagle Ford and the Permian by developing significant new pipeline capacity to, as well as storage and dock facilities in, both Houston and Corpus Christi. Now, with production in the Eagle Ford off its high and growth in the Permian slowing, these same midstreamers (and producers, marketers, refiners, and exporters of condensate and other refined products) are taking stock, and assessing not only what new infrastructure might still be needed in this period of lowered expectation, but whether shifting more of their attention (and liquids) towards Corpus instead of Houston might be warranted. Today, we continue our look at Corpus Christi’s increasing role as a crude/condensate powerhouse.

Over the past couple of years, Corpus Christi has emerged as an attractive refining and distribution hub for Eagle Ford and more recently Permian Basin crude oil and lease condensate. Despite Corpus’s promise, however, currently low commodity prices have made key players skittish about making long-term—and potentially costly—commitments to additional Permian-to-Corpus pipeline capacity, and to crude refining, condensate splitting and marine dock infrastructure investments in or near Corpus. Today, we begin a deep-dive into Corpus Christi-area crude- and condensate-related infrastructure and Corpus’s potential as an even bigger destination for Eagle Ford and Permian output.

The 20 Mb/d Dakota Prairie refinery commenced operation on May 4, 2015 – becoming the first brand new U.S. crude processing plant to startup in nearly 40 years. The rationale behind this refinery and plans for others like it was surging demand for diesel driven by the shale oil boom in North Dakota. However the market conditions that prompted interest in building refineries in the Bakken region have changed considerably in the past year and led to an unprofitable first quarter for Dakota Prairie. Today we explain why the new refinery made sense at one time and what has changed in the past year.

While crude oil takeaway capacity out of the Permian Basin from major hubs is probably overbuilt for the time being that is not the case for gathering systems bringing barrels from the wellhead to mainline terminals. Production in the Permian has slowed since the drop in oil prices reduced drilling activity but is still increasing from sweet spots in the Midland and Delaware basins in West Texas where pipeline gathering can save producers as much as $2/Bbl in trucking fees. Today we continue our review of gathering infrastructure build out to deliver more crude to takeaway hubs in the Permian.

Permian Basin crude production more than doubled since 2011 to reach nearly 2 MMb/d today, but that rate of increase has leveled off since prices crashed last year. Meantime 750Mb/d of long-haul pipeline takeaway capacity came online in the first half of 2015 - greatly exceeding today’s take-away requirements. And there is more to come next year when the 470 Mb/d Enterprise Midland-to-Sealy pipeline is expected online – leading to fears regional pipeline infrastructure is overbuilt. How about inside the Permian Basin? Today we start a series reviewing Permian gathering system build out.

Prior to 2012 the only U.S. produced crude delivered by pipeline to Houston area refineries came from offshore Gulf of Mexico or onshore Louisiana fields. The majority of supplies were imports delivered by waterborne tanker. But in just three short years between 2012 and 2015, roughly 2 MMb/d of crude pipeline capacity was built or repurposed to deliver surging light shale crude production and heavy crude from Canada into the Houston area. Refiners have adapted quickly to take advantage of new sources of supply. But with much of the newly minted infrastructure underutilized, midstream companies still need to improve pipeline connectivity and storage accessibility to overcome area logistical challenges. Today we review RBN’s latest Drill Down report on Houston crude infrastructure – released today -- and announce RBN’s new infrastructure database and mapping system, called MIDI.

Delays to the Enbridge Sandpiper project bringing greater volumes of Bakken crude onto the Enbridge Mainline system at Superior, WS threaten to limit the supply of crude to feed refineries in Quebec when Enbridge’s Line 9B reversal project comes online in November 2015. The market impact could push crude prices higher in North Dakota. Today we discuss the crude supply picture and possible impact when Line 9B opens up.

The cost to charter U.S. Flag Jones Act tankers that are used to transport crude and refined products along U.S. coastal waters is still as high as $75,000/day for medium-range 330 MBbl vessels. That’s four times what it costs for an equivalent foreign flag tanker. Higher charter rates – caused by tight vessel supply in a regulated market – have attracted investment from Kinder Morgan and other midstream companies and the tanker fleet will expand by 40% in the next 3 years. Today we discuss the market potential.

The Jones Act (see The Sea and Mr. Jones) is a federal statute requiring that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried in U.S. Flag ships, constructed in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and/or U.S. permanent residents. Because of the regulations, operating expenses are higher for Jones Act vessels (as much as 2.7 times non-flag alternatives according to a U.S. Maritime Administration (MORAD) study in 2011). We have provided considerable coverage of the role that Jones Act vessels have played in the U.S. crude oil distribution system over the past 4 years since shale production increased domestic output including our Rock The Boat series in the spring of 2014. Subscribers to RBN’s Backstage Pass service can download a copy of the comprehensive “Rock The Boat” Drill Down Report that accompanied that series and contained a detailed inventory of the larger vessels and their owners.

A critical ingredient consumed in the production of aluminum is sourced exclusively from petroleum refineries. Complex refineries use coker units to break up residual fuel left over from initial crude processing to squeeze out the last drops of lighter components – leaving a solid carbon based residue known as petcoke. Without anode grade petcoke (GPC) there would be no aluminum industry. As we explain today aluminum producers are scrambling to address a looming petcoke shortage that could seriously disrupt their industry.

After a year’s delay due to permit issues, Enbridge now expects the expanded and reversed 300 Mb/d Line 9B pipeline to Montreal will come online next month (November 2015). The pipeline is an important cog in Enbridge’s Eastern Access and Light Oil Market Access expansion projects and will supply mostly light crude to two refineries in Quebec. As we explain today, the payload will travel a winding route to get to Montreal.

Petroleum coke (known as petcoke or “coke”) is produced by refinery coker units that break up residual fuel oil to squeeze out the last drops of lighter components used to make gasoline and diesel – leaving a solid carbon based residue. Petcoke is also the only commercial source of material used to manufacture electrolytic anodes that play a critical part in making aluminum. As a result – these industries are effectively joined at the hip - although you wouldn’t know it because the two rarely cooperate. As we explain in today’s blog - that may need to change going forward because a looming petcoke shortage could disrupt aluminum production and prices.

Crude production in the Niobrara shale formation is focused on two areas, the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin in Northeast Colorado and the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming. Production has expanded in both basins (current output is about 435 Mb/d according to the Energy Information Administration) but much of the recent volume growth has come from the DJ basin. Expectations as recently as last year that production would expand to over 700 Mb/d in the next 4 years have been tempered by the crude price crash. A couple of large pipeline projects prompted last year by those production expectations have been cancelled since but others are still being built. Today we assess crude takeaway infrastructure in the DJ basin.

This Wednesday (September 30, 2015) PBF Energy announced their acquisition of the 155 Mb/d ExxonMobil Torrance, CA refinery that has been out of commission since February 2015 and will not likely return to service until February 2016. This PBF purchase is their second refinery buy this year and their fifth since 2010. The sophisticated Torrance refinery has a lot of upside potential for PBF but may be constrained by California transport fuel regulations. Today we take a closer look at the deal.

The deluge of light (and super light) sweet crude from U.S. tight-oil plays like the Permian Basin, Bakken and Eagle Ford has had many effects, including a push by refiners to rework facilities designed for heavy-crude processing to handle an excess of lighter oils. Many of these projects are underway and expected online in the next two years. Today, we consider refinery infrastructure investments that might not pan out in a low crude price world.