December 2019 U.S. crude oil production soared 1.1 MMb/d above this time last year to 12.8 MMb/d. It’s a similar story for natural gas, with Lower-48 production climbing to 95 Bcf/d, up 6 Bcf/d over the year. That’s a little off the breakneck growth rate of 2018, but still quite healthy, even in the context of Shale Era increases. And it all happened in the face of continued infrastructure constraints, crude prices that fell from the mid-$60s/bbl in April to average $55/bbl from May through October, and gas prices that in several months were crushed to the lowest level in 20 years. It’s all too much supply to be absorbed by the U.S. domestic market. And that means more pipes to get the supply to the Gulf Coast and more export facilities to get the volumes on the water. What has all this meant for the market’s response to these developments? Well, at RBN we have a way to track that. We scrupulously monitor the website “hit rate” of the RBN blogs fired off to about 28,000 people each day and, at the end of each year, we look back to see which topics generated the most interest from you, our readers. That hit rate reveals a lot about major market trends. So, once again, we look into the rearview mirror to check out the top blogs of the year based on the number of rbnenergy.com website hits.
Daily Energy Blog
It’s safe to say that Permian producers had a good Christmas. Sure, their stock prices may be off a bit and their rig counts are down. But the absolute prices they are paid for their crude oil are up by almost $20/bbl versus this time in December 2018, and the price spreads between the Permian and neighboring markets have significantly narrowed as a result. What’s driving this change? There are a variety of factors at play, but chief among them is the new pipeline infrastructure that has helped lift Permian producers’ oil price realizations. Today, we check in on the status of one of the major new pipelines that have contributed to the seismic shift in the Permian oil market this year.
The battle for pipeline supremacy in the Permian is really heating up. From Cactus II, to EPIC, to Gray Oak, to a bevy of upcoming expansions and a couple of longer-term behemoth greenfield projects, there are multiple new takeaway options for Permian producers. But could it all be coming online at the wrong time? If there’s one thing we’ve learned from third-quarter earnings calls and recent conversations with producers, it’s that balance-sheet management and fiscal conservativism are top of mind right now. As a result, drilling plans and production growth expectations have been tamped down considerably for 2020 and beyond. Midstreamers and pipeline companies in the Permian are responding quickly. Tariffs are being slashed, margins are getting cut, and competition for West Texas barrels is fierce. Today, we look at recent developments and what they’ll mean for revenues and market differentials heading into the New Year.
The midstream sector in Texas is still in the midst of what seems to be a never-ending build-out of new pipelines, storage terminals and export docks, all aimed at keeping pace with rising production and refining volumes and the increasing need to move incremental output to foreign markets. Given the understandable desire of midstream companies to earn revenue and profits multiple times as hydrocarbons move from the lease to end-users, it’s not surprising to find midstreamers at work on a variety of projects along the way. A prime example would be NuStar Energy, whose capital spending plan for 2019-20 is focused on helping to resolve three bottlenecks: between its crude oil gathering system and takeaway pipelines in the Permian, between takeaway pipes and export docks in the Corpus Christi area, and between South Texas refineries and refined products customers in Mexico. Today, we look at a leading midstreamer’s multifaceted expansion effort in the Lone Star State.
Private equity is playing a critically important role in the build-out of crude oil gathering systems in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin, where rising production volumes — and the expectation of further growth, especially in and around Weld County, CO — are spurring a number of major projects. For proof, you need look no further than ARB Midstream, which, with backing from Ball Ventures’ BV Natural Resources, has developed the largest privately held crude transportation and storage network in the D-J through a combination of acquisitions and new construction. Producers have dedicated a quarter of a million acres to it. Today, we continue a series on crude-related infrastructure in the D-J with a look at ARB Midstream’s fast-expanding asset base there.
As exports of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs have surged, U.S. markets for these energy commodities have undergone radical transformations. Exports now dominate the supply/demand equilibrium. These markets simply would not clear at today’s production levels, much less at the volumes coming on over the next few years, if not for access to global markets. Making sense of these energy market fundamentals is what RBN’s School of Energy is all about. Did you miss our conference a few weeks back? Not to worry! You’ve got a second chance! All the material from the conference — including 20 hours of video, slide decks and Excel models — are now online. Fair warning: Today’s blog is an unabashed advertorial for the latest RBN School of Energy + International Online.
Crude oil gathering systems play an important role in a matter critical to producers, marketers and refiners alike: crude quality. Well-designed gathering systems can help deliver crude with the API gravity and other characteristics that refiners desire and are willing to pay a premium for. This has become a particularly big deal in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, where a big expansion of gathering capacity is under way, and where the market gives extra value to “Niobrara-spec” crude with an API of 42 degrees or lower. Today, we continue a series on existing and planned pipeline networks to move D-J-sourced crude from the lease to regional hubs and takeaway pipes with a look at Taproot Energy Partners’ system.
A little over a year ago, we discussed the rapidly expanding third-party shipper market for crude oil in West Texas. At the time, crude at Midland was trading at nearly a $15/bbl discount to Gulf Coast markets. Pipeline space out of the Permian was hard to come by and extremely valuable, and everybody and their brother — literally, in some cases — were forming a limited liability corporation and trying to secure space as a walk-up, “lottery” shipper. A lot of people made a lot of money, but now, just over a year later, much of that lottery opportunity has dried up. Nowadays, these same folks are looking for new opportunities, or going back to old strategies, only to find that being a third-party shipper today is more expensive and more burdensome. In today’s blog, we recap how lottery shippers made buckets of money in late 2018 and early 2019, only to see their target of opportunity dry up due to midstream investment.
The doubling of crude oil production in the Denver-Julesburg Basin over the past 18 months spurred a rapid build-out of crude gathering systems and other infrastructure. Unlike the sprawling Permian Basin, with its numerous centers of drilling and production activity in parts of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the vast majority of the D-J Basin’s incremental crude output has come from Weld County, CO. Understandably, Weld County also is where most of the D-J’s crude gathering systems are located, and where most of the gathering system expansions are being planned and built. Today, we continue a series on existing and planned pipeline networks to move D-J crude from the lease to regional hubs and takeaway pipes.
Crude oil production in the Permian grew steadily through the 2010s and now tops 4.5 MMb/d — five times what it was at the start of the decade. Production in the Bakken and the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin sagged when crude prices plummeted in 2014-15, but both regions chugged their way back, with output setting new records every month or two in 2018-19. SCOOP and STACK are another story. Only a year or two ago, many producers and others were talking up the neighboring crude-focused plays in central Oklahoma as the next big thing, maybe even a Sooner State Permian. But while SCOOP/STACK production increased through 2018, it’s been flat or falling ever since, and most producers there have been slashing their drilling activity. Today, we look at recent developments in the once-hot region.
As new crude oil pipeline capacity to the Gulf Coast comes online, a growing disconnect is developing between the surplus crude volumes available for export and the actual export capacity at coastal terminals, particularly projects that would accommodate the more economical and efficient Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC). This is especially true in the Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX, area, where the relatively shallow depth of the Sabine Neches Waterway limits vessels to Aframax-class ships or partially loaded Suezmax tankers. If planned pipeline expansions into the BPA region over the next two years are completed, over 1 MMb/d of additional crude exports would need to leave BPA terminals to balance the market. Today, we look at current and future export capacity out of BPA.
They are unsung heroes, the guys and gals who get in early, stay late, and are usually working odd hours on the weekends. They resolve issues before they arise, solve complex problems when they do pop up, and are always working the phones to get the next hot piece of intel. No, we’re not talking about the new cast from Season 2 of “Jack Ryan,” and no, it’s not the kids from “Stranger Things.” The keyboard warriors we’re referring to are crude oil schedulers. They’re at the forefront of the daily logistics taking place at truck injection points, gathering systems, and takeaway pipelines from Western Canada down to the Gulf Coast (and around the rest of the world as well). As more and more new pipelines get built out in places like West Texas, it’s important to revisit the basics of how crude oil moves and the role that crude schedulers play. Today, we bring it back to the roots of crude oil operations and shine some light on an underappreciated group of crude oil operators.
Crude oil production in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin has nearly doubled since January 2016 — only the Permian has outpaced the D-J’s growth rate over the same period — and production there now averages about 640 Mb/d. The D-J has just about everything producers want, including an unusually intense concentration of hydrocarbons within four geologic layers, or “benches,” only a few thousand feet below the surface, low per-well drilling costs, and direct pipeline access to the crude hub in Cushing, OK. Production growth in the D-J has spurred a rapid build-out of crude gathering systems and other infrastructure, especially in Colorado’s Weld County, the epicenter of D-J activity, which is located a short drive northeast of Denver. Today, we begin a series on existing and planned pipeline networks to move D-J crude from the lease to regional hubs and takeaway pipes.
Like the proverbial dog who finally catches the truck he’s been chasing, only to wonder what to do next, midstreamers at long last have brought on enough crude oil pipeline capacity to move Permian barrels to the Gulf Coast. In fact, right now there appears to be more than enough pipeline space, with several pipes flowing less than their capacity. What midstream companies now face is a race to the bottom as their pipelines compete with each other to attract barrels by offering service to Gulf Coast markets at the lowest price — resulting in transportation rate compression. Today, we begin a blog series on the tug-of-war for barrels and its effect on prices.
Crude-by-rail has saved the day for Alberta producers before, and it’s about to again. The talk of the Western Canadian province the past few days has been the Alberta government’s October 31 announcement that it will allow incremental crude oil production beyond the province’s 3.8-MMb/d cap — if that crude is transported to market by rail. Within hours of the government’s statement, a trio of major producers indicated that they now expect to ramp up their Alberta output by a total of more than 100 Mb/d over the next few months, with a good bit of the gain occurring by year’s end. Production increases from others are likely to follow, as are parallel plans to load that crude into tank cars and rail it to market. But can Alberta producers really thrive without more pipeline capacity? Today, we review recent developments in “Canada’s Energy Province” and what they mean for producers and Alberta crude prices.
