

Before data centers were the hot topic everywhere, Virginia was already rolling out the red carpet and it seemed that tech firms were constructing facilities as fast as humanly possible, drawn by the state’s robust fiber-optic network and low power prices. But while other states are racing to catch up, Virginia may be hitting the brakes. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what makes Virginia so “sweet” for data center developers, their impact on the state, and efforts by some to slow progress.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
US oil and gas rig count climbed to 549 rigs for the week ending September 26, an increase of seven rigs vs. a week ago and the largest gain since July according to Baker Hughes data.
Low-carbon steel that utilizes green hydrogen in the production process will be used in Microsoft data centers under an agreement announced this week with Swedish steelmaker Stegra.
The Brent premium to WTI has traded as wide as $23/Bbl this year but was down to 2 cnts/Bbl on Friday July 19, 2013. At one point during trading nearby WTI prices rose above Brent – the first time that’s happened in three years. Yesterday (July 22, 2013) WTI August expired at 106.91 - $1.14 lower than Brent September. Today we look at why the spread has narrowed so rapidly and whether it will stay that way.
The latest available Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for April 2013 indicates that imports into Houston and Port Arthur region refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast included 425 Mb/d of light and 425 Mb/d of medium quality crudes. Seventy three percent of the imports that month were heavy crude. Domestic and/or Canadian supplies fed only 43 percent of the region’s 3.18 MMb/d crude demand. That balance of refinery crude supplies will change significantly by 2014 as increased domestic production finds a path to the Houston and Port Arthur regions via new and expanded pipeline capacity. Today we extend our Permian series by digging into the import data and building a Houston/Port Arthur refinery supply demand balance.
Canada enjoys vast natural gas resources and domestic demand for its gas is growing. But Canadian gas exports to the U.S. are plummeting, and it seems the only way to avoid a major gas glut north of the border will be to export large volumes of LNG to the Pacific Rim. The catch is, there’s a lot of competition out there, both from reigning LNG export giants like Australia and prospective players like the U.S. And Canada has its own issues with environmental concerns and permitting for natural gas pipelines and LNG terminals. What happens if Canada’s LNG export initiatives don’t happen?
European refiners have shut down 1.7 MMb/d of capacity since 2008 in response to recession plagued economic conditions at home and competitive pressures in their traditional export markets. Refinery utilization in Europe is down to 75 percent (IEA Q1 2013). That contrasts sharply with high utilization, record exports and respectable product margins at US refineries - even as crude prices increase. Today we examine why Europe’s refineries are suffering.
At the end of June Koch announced plans for an open season that started July 1, 2013 to solicit interest in a pipeline project to deliver 250 Mb/d of crude from the Bakken to Hartford and Patoka, IL. Koch’s plans suggest the new pipe could connect to St James, LA on the Gulf Coast via the proposed Energy Transfer/Enbridge Energy joint venture Gulf Coast Crude Access pipeline. If the pipeline proceeds, it would come into service in 2016. Earlier Bakken pipeline projects have failed because of flexible rail options. But rail rates from the Bakken to the coasts are currently underwater due to narrowing crude spreads. Today we review the project’s prospects.
Permian crude production is set to increase 0.4 MMb/d to 1.8 MMb/d by December 2018 (Bentek). New pipeline capacity currently being built and planned to be in place by the end of 2015 should comfortably handle the output by then – primarily pushing Permian crude into the Houston market. The bigger question is whether Houston region Gulf Coast refineries can process the new crude without significant reconfiguration. Today we review whether Gulf Coast refiners can handle incoming Permian production.
Rapid growth in U.S. gas exports to Mexico already is having profound effects north of the border, and things will only get more interesting. Gas producers in the Eagle Ford and other Texas shale plays are finding the new buyers they need. But gas consumers in the Southwest—caught with a losing hand of stagnant regional gas production, rising gas demand, increasing gas exports to Mexico, and pipeline capacity tightness—face potentially serious delivery concerns and price premiums in the not too distant future.
The shale revolution has done away with natural gas price volatility, at least for now. And that has been a bad thing for natural gas storage. Merchant storage facilities make most of their money on either seasonal gas price differences or short-term price fluctuations, or both. Unfortunately, the oversupplied market has flattened out prices, removing the primary source of storage value. But there are other ways of extracting value out of natural gas storage. Today we explore several of these strategies.
Over the past few weeks, NGL prices have dropped to levels relative to other hydrocarbon prices that we have not seen since the bad old days of 2009. Since early April 2013, the frac spread (see Another Fracing Problem and RBN Spotcheck graphs) has averaged less than a bargain basement level of $5.00/MMbtu. For months ethane at Mont Belvieu has been valued at no better than the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub. Propane at Mont Belvieu languishes below 40% of the value of crude oil, and normal butane at 50% of crude oil, levels not seen in years. Even natural gasoline (being exported in record volumes to Canada for diluent) is down to only 85% of crude. Must NGLs do some kind of dirty deeds to recapture their historical valuation? Or is this the new normal? Today we kick off a three part blog series to explore the sad case of rock bottom NGL prices.
“Hey Joe, I said, where you goin' to run to now … where you gonna go?” now that no other options are left, Jimi Hendrix asked in his debut single, “Hey Joe.” Joe’s answer? “ I'm goin' way down south, way down south, way down south to Mexico way!”
Texas and other Southeast Gulf gas producers are in the same boat as Joe, Bentek says in a recent report titled “Growing Mexican Gas Market Creates Southwest Price Premiums.” Having lost some of their old buyers in the Northeast to shale gas producers closer to that market – and with the prospects of losing more - producers in the Eagle Ford and the Permian and Anadarko basins need new options, and are looking to the fast-growing Mexican market as a way out.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) discount to Brent narrowed 80 percent since February 2013 to close at $4.05 on Monday July 8, 2013. As a result the netbacks that crude producers in North Dakota receive for barrels sent to the East Coast has tumbled and they can now make more money sending crude to market on the pipeline route to Cushing. Today we run the numbers on changing Bakken netbacks.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) discount to Brent has been as wide as $27/Bbl in the past two years and traded at an average of $17.50/Bbl in 2012. Since February this year the spread has narrowed 80 percent to less than $5/Bbl – closing at $4.55/Bbl on Friday (July 5, 2013). Surging WTI prices are over $100/Bbl for the first time since May 2012.Today we look at what is behind the recent sudden narrowing in the spread.
Finding profitable markets for the rapidly increasing volumes of condensates produced in the Eagle Ford and other U.S. shale plays will be challenging. Sure there will be a growing Canadian need for condensates as a diluent for oil sands-derived bitumen, but that will still leave U.S condensate producers with a big surplus. The logical thing would be to look further afield, but selling to overseas markets— particularly to the growing Asia/Pacific region—is a complicated matter. First, an export license for “raw” (unprocessed) condensate to overseas markets is required, but no such licenses are being issued. Second, the Asia/Pacific region is also experiencing supply growth.
Valero’s brand new $1.6 B, 60 Mb/d hydrocracker is set to ramp up at the company’s Norco, LA refinery this month (July 2013). They added a similar unit to their Port Arthur refinery last year and plan to expand existing units at their other refineries. Hydrocrackers leverage cheap US natural gas to boost production of ultra low sulfur middle distillates. That makes sense because of high diesel refining margins and a boom in exports over the past two years. But not many refiners appear to share Valero’s enthusiasm for these investments. Today we consider the benefit that these upgrading units offer.
Permian crude production is expected to increase 28 percent between 2013 and December 2018 to 1.8 MMb/d (Bentek). Existing pipeline takeaway capacity and local crude consumption are currently barely enough to handle production of 1.4 MMb/d. However, planned new pipeline capacity should comfortably handle output by the end of 2015. Today we review the impact of new Permian takeaway capacity.