There’s been at least some progress the last two years on Alaska’s ambitious plan to pipe huge volumes of North Slope-sourced natural gas to the state’s southern coast, supercool it into liquid form, and ship the resulting LNG to Asia. Over that same period, however, the international LNG market has been rattled by weak demand, rock-bottom prices and an impending supply glut. Alaska is itching to become a major LNG supplier by the mid-2020s, but is anyone willing to buy what it’s selling? Today, we provide an update on Alaska’s LNG plan, including a newly approved state buy-out of TransCanada’s interest in key elements of it.
Daily Energy Blog
Thursday, 11/05/2015
Tuesday, 11/03/2015
It is certainly no secret that hydraulic fracturing, the process used to crack shale to yield natural gas and oil, is highly controversial. Numerous reports, claims, protests, etc. have asserted that hydraulic fracturing poses a danger to drinking water, which has led to a storm of argument and opposition in many areas of the country. Anyone wondering how oil and gas markets will work in the future must have in the back of their mind the possibility that opposition could lead to rules that would stifle supply development. So many were anxiously awaiting an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) study of hydraulic fracturing and drinking water that had been going on for five years. The draft of that study was released in June. What does it do, and what does it mean for oil and gas future development? Today, we explore some of the findings of the draft report and focus on its implications for the natural gas industry.
Sunday, 11/01/2015
The incremental pipeline capacity built to move more natural gas from the Marcellus to the New York City region over the past two or three years has reduced—but not eliminated--delivery constraints and wintertime gas-price premiums at the New York City pricing hub on Zone 6 of the Transco pipeline and other pipes feeding the area. Given the Big Apple’s significant and growing gas demand, midstream companies are exploring whether to add still more pipeline capacity, and developer Liberty Natural Gas is lining up approvals for its proposed fix: an offshore LNG terminal that would inject gas when demand spikes. Today, we begin an examination of the economics of using LNG to supplement wintertime gas supplies, and how Greater New York might benefit from an LNG shot-in-the-arm.
Thursday, 10/29/2015
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday (Thursday) reported the U.S. natural gas storage inventory is 3,877 Bcf as of Oct. 23, which is above the 5-year maximum for this week and within striking distance of breaching the all-time record high of 3,929 Bcf (Nov. 2, 2012) by the end of the traditional storage injection season on Oct. 31. And, while the production growth rate has slowed compared to recent years, and even dipped a bit over the past couple of weeks, total gas production is still near record levels and about 2.0 Bcf/d higher than last year. Now the gas market is about to flip to withdrawal season, when winter heating demand typically exceeds available local production, leading to storage drawdowns. The combination of high storage and production levels sets up a bearish dynamic for the winter market. Today, we take a look at the supply and demand balance going into the winter gas market.
Monday, 10/26/2015
The availability of pipeline flow data makes the U.S. natural gas market uniquely positioned to grasp with reasonable accuracy where it stands with regional or national supply and demand on a daily basis. If you understand how to wrangle and finesse this robust data source, you can make a pretty good estimate of where the supply is, where it is headed, how it’s being consumed, and ultimately, what that all means for prices. Today we wrap up our series on natural gas production estimates and how the industry uses pipeline flow data to track gas production trends in real time.
Tuesday, 10/20/2015
In all sorts of commodity markets, buyers and sellers would give their eye-teeth to have access to accurate daily supply and demand data. Access to such data would provide insight into the utilization of transportation assets, transportation patterns and ultimately --- the holy grail of commodity markets – price. What if there was a commodity market where you could know supply and demand on a daily basis? Well there is. And it is the natural gas market. Gas market analysts have access to the luxury of pipeline flow data that (in the right hands) provides reasonably accurate estimates of daily supply (including production) and demand. In today’s blog, we explain how the natural gas industry uses flow data to track gas production trends in real time.
Monday, 10/19/2015
The acquisition of Williams Companies by Energy Transfer will create a midstream behemoth. The deal is expected to close during the first half of 2016 subject to regulatory approval. Once complete the main holding company Energy Transfer Corp (ETC) will be a C-Corp entity sitting atop Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs – see Masters of the Midstream for a more complete explanation of these structures) containing the assets of Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Williams Energy Partners (WPZ), Sunoco LP (SUN) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL). The combined natural gas pipeline network will carry as much as 45% of U.S. Lower 48 dry gas production. Today we take a look at the natural gas infrastructure assets in the deal.
Wednesday, 10/14/2015
On Tuesday of this week the Energy Information Administration released its latest Drilling Productivity Report, projecting declines in US natural gas production volumes. Meanwhile, daily pipeline flow data shows gas production hitting record highs and gas storage fill could also be heading toward maximum levels. The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas price for the November 2015 is responding to these burgeoning supplies, settling yesterday at $2.518/MMBtu, near all-time lows for this time of year. Today we continue our look at the various sources of natural gas production data and what they tell us.
Monday, 10/12/2015
Depending on whom you believe, the international liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is either struggling through a period of oversupply and rock-bottom prices or poised for a new round of demand growth based on that low-cost supply abundance. (Hint: The answer may well be both of the above.) For electric and natural gas utilities that want to become LNG importers as quickly—and as cheaply--as possible, an increasingly popular option is buying or (more likely) chartering a floating storage and regasification unit, or FSRU. Today, we look at the growing use of FSRUs and how they may boost the LNG market.
Thursday, 10/08/2015
The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures price averaged $2.64/MMBtu in September, the lowest level for any September since 2001, and it continues to hover at a similar low for October so far. Rig counts are down nearly 60% since December 2014. The market is on high alert for the first sign of production declines that might encourage higher prices – believing this to be a matter of sooner or later. Yet natural gas production has been hitting all-time records. Today we look at monthly natural gas production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Monday, 10/05/2015
Crude oil producers in the Bakken region responded to the oil price collapse with drilling cutbacks and a laser-like focus on sweet-spot areas with high initial production rates. It turns out those oil sweet spots also produce a lot of associated natural gas. But there’s not enough infrastructure in place to deal with the extra gas, and that’s slowing North Dakota’s efforts to reduce flaring (burning gas that can’t be utilized for various reasons). Today, we consider the multiple, domino-like effects that low oil prices are having on one of the U.S.’s most important tight oil plays.
Monday, 9/21/2015
U.S. Lower 48 natural gas production is averaging a record 74.2 Bcf/d in September to date, according to PointLogic Energy. Meanwhile, CME’s Henry Hub natural gas futures contract has languished at an average of $2.68/MMBtu this month to date, the lowest for any September since 2001. Much of the recent gain in natural gas production has come from new Utica Shale output. In today’s blog, we drill down into the region’s pipeline flow data to see where exactly the growth is coming from, what’s driving it and what it could mean for natural gas supply.
Monday, 9/14/2015
Only a few months ago, it seemed likely that Hawaii’s electric and gas utilities would wean themselves off crude oil and naphtha-based gas in favor of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Now though, with oil prices low—and expected by many to stay low—the Aloha State’s governor says that he thinks the planned shift to LNG would be too costly and that he’ll fight it. The utilities still see LNG as the way to go, pointing to falling LNG prices and natural gas’s environmental benefits over oil. Today, we consider how lower prices for crude oil and LNG are affecting the debate about Hawaii’s energy future.
Thursday, 9/10/2015
U.S. natural gas production has been essentially flat this summer as many producers curtailed, deferred or delayed drilling and well completions earlier in the year. However, some of the same producers, particularly in the Northeast, in their most recent earnings calls, indicated they expect to meet their 2015 production targets by increasing output this winter. In today’s blog, we look at how and why producers defer production and the potential impacts on the market in Q4.
Wednesday, 9/09/2015
Natural gas has always had a yin-yang relationship with coal. When coal’s fortunes were on the rise, as they were only a few years ago, the long-term role of gas as a U.S. power plant fuel was being questioned—there simply wasn’t enough gas in the ground, some said. Now, with the shale revolution and a push to slash greenhouse gas emissions, coal is frequently portrayed in a death spiral, with gas the clear victor. But it is not that simple. Today, we examine the ongoing interplay between the electric industry’s two favorite fossil fuels, and whether coal is heading out or hanging on—and what it means for natural gas producers.
