Daily Energy Blog

Category:
Crude Oil

So far in 2013 around 645 Mb/d of new crude oil pipeline capacity has opened up to ship supplies to the Texas Gulf Coast. Early this month (December) line fill starts on the largest new capacity addition to date – the 700 Mb/d Keystone Gulf Coast Pipeline. The new pipeline runs from Cushing to Port Arthur and will carry mostly Canadian heavy crude. Today we wonder if all that crude will find a home.

The first episode in this series described 4 MMb/d of current and planned expansions to crude transportation capacity into the Texas Gulf Coast region (see Handling The Texas Gulf Coast Crude Flood). Our analysis showed that the new incoming light crude capacity will exceed Texas Gulf Coast demand by somewhere north of 0.5 MMb/d by the end of 2015. In episode two we described how some of these excess crude supplies would move east on the reversed Ho-Ho pipeline (see Gulf Coast Crude West to East Flows). In episode three we looked at how shippers could divert supplies away from Texas Gulf Coast congestion (see Texas Gulf Coast Bypass Options). This time we consider the impact of the Keystone Gulf Coast pipeline.

One of the more confusing features of the Keystone Gulf Coast Pipeline is what to call it – the name seems to change in real time. That is probably due to a desire to disassociate the southern Gulf Coast section of the pipeline from delays in permitting the Canada to US Keystone XL pipeline. Owner and operator TransCanada most recently set up a subsidiary to operate the pipeline called Marketlink LLC and it should now apparently more properly be called the Cushing Marketlink Pipeline so we will go with CMP as an abbreviation.

The 36-inch-diameter CMP runs 485 miles from Cushing, OK, to Nederland, TX (see green line on the map below). The line will have an initial capacity of 700 Mb/d with the option to expand to 830 Mb/d. It is almost ready to commence operations but before that can happen it has to be filled with oil – a process known as “line fill”. We described how line fill works and provided a formula to approximate the volume of oil required back in May 2012 (see A Time for Gas A Time For Crude – Part 2). According to that formula CMP requires 3.5 MMBbl of line fill. Marketlink LLC has said the first pipeline deliveries will be made before the end of 2013. The company is also constructing a 48-mile Houston Lateral pipeline (orange line on the map) that will run from the Liberty pumping station to East Houston and should be online by the end of 2014 with 130 Mb/d capacity.

Source: TransCanada Website and RBN Energy (Click to Enlarge)

The initial destination of the CMP is the Sunoco Logistics (part of Energy Transfer Partners) Nederland terminal. We have covered the Nederland terminal in two previous blog posts (see Nederland Crude Wonderland and Nederland Crude Volume Surges). The terminal is located on the Sabine-Neches waterway between Beaumont and Port Arthur, TX and has 22 MMBbl of storage capacity (see map below). The location is in the heart of Beaumont/Port Arthur refining country – home to four large refineries owned by ExxonMobil (Beaumont, 365 Mb/d), Valero (Port Arthur, 310 Mb/d), Total (Port Arthur, 174 Mb/d) and Shell/Saudi Aramco (Motiva 600 Mb/d). The Sabine Neches Waterway connects to the Gulf of Mexico, providing waterborne access to the entire Gulf Coast region. Nederland is about 100 miles East of Houston and 350 miles West of New Orleans.

Category:
Natural Gas

The golden years of natural gas abundance in which we find ourselves are sparking tremendous enthusiasm among potential users of the fuel, from power generators to major industrial companies, to exporters both current and potential.  After all, a trifecta of cheap, abundant, and clean is hard to resist.  But the big question is  how supply and demand really shake out after everyone’s enthusiasm results in new and growing use of the resource.  Is the natural gas industry going to be able to supply all the new demand without prices going up the way they have in the past, most recently hitting double-digits at Henry Hub just five years ago?  The first step in order to weigh supply against demand is to have a plausible scenario of what that demand might be. What does it all add up to?  So in today’s blog we will see how much demand we should be trying to meet, to be followed later by a next installment to see how producers might meet it.

Category:
Natural Gas Liquids

The northern corn-belt states are winding down from a very wet bumper crop of corn which has required a lot of grain drying, fired by propane.  That has translated into a shortage of propane supplies – so much so that seven governors recently issued emergency orders to expedite propane deliveries to their states.  Now, with about three weeks left before the official onset of winter (and it feels like winter already), 2013 Midwestern propane problems should be behind us.  But what about next year?  In 2014, Cochin pipeline – one of the most significant traditional sources of propane for the region goes away.  Kinder Morgan (current owner and operator of Cochin) is reversing the system and turning it into a diluent pipeline.  Volumes of propane previously delivered by Cochin must come from somewhere else.  Today we’ll continue our series looking at upper Midwest propane and how the region is likely to adjust in the post-Cochin market.

Category:
Crude Oil

Western Canadian producers regularly have to swallow large price discounts for heavy crude versus the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI). During the first week of November price discounts for heavy Western Canadian Select crude versus WTI came close to $42/Bbl – the deepest since 2007. Since then they have narrowed but are still over $30/Bbl. Today we examine the relationship between storage volumes in Alberta and crude price discounts.

Category:
Natural Gas

Alaska officials, concerned the state’s once-dominant role in U.S. energy production will continue slipping, are taking a fresh look at helping to jump-start a combined natural gas treatment plant, gas pipeline and LNG export project that would free vast volumes of natural gas now stranded at the state’s North Slope. A new study commissioned by the state found that it could make sense for Alaska to take a 20% or higher equity stake in the project, but that there are significant risks the state would need to mitigate. Today we look at whether the 49th state can make a long-stalled plan by producers to move North Slope gas to market a reality by the mid-2020s.

Category:
Crude Oil

When over 4 MMb/d of new crude transportation capacity opens up to the Texas Gulf Coast by the end of 2015 shippers are likely to face congestion getting their supplies to refiners in the region. Given the U.S. Department of Commerce ban on exports, some of that crude needs to find a home elsewhere. Pipeline options to get crude supplies to Eastern Gulf refineries are limited to the Ho-Ho reversal project. Today we examine shipper alternatives.

Category:
Natural Gas

The CME natural gas futures market has been trading in a narrow 40 cent range between $3.40/MMBtu and $3.80/MMBtu since the end of the summer. The onset of winter and the first storage withdrawals last week (according to EIA) have done little to jump start prices. The prompt Henry Hub futures market closed at $3.702 yesterday (November 21, 2013). The dominating story remains increased supply from new production. Today we look at how supplies are weighing on spot prices and futures market speculation.

Category:
Crude Oil

Increasing production of naphtha range material such as condensates and natural gasoline in the southeastern Ohio section of the Utica shale will soon exceed the capacity of local refineries to process such light hydrocarbons. Midstream logistics companies like MPLX are developing infrastructure to transport condensate, natural gasoline and the more limited supplies of crude produced in the Utica to refineries further afield. There is also demand for condensate and natural gasoline to be used as diluent to reduce the viscosity of Western Canadian heavy crude bitumen. Today we describe MPLX and its sponsor Marathon Petroleum Corporation’s (MPC) recently announced long term takeaway transportation plans.

Category:
Crude Oil

Finding a home for growing condensate range material being produced in the Ohio Utica shale play involves local refinery deliveries as well as new transport routes to markets outside the region as far away as Canada. Midstream companies are busy developing infrastructure plans to gather both wellhead condensate and output from natural gas processing plants in the region. Today we detail MPLX and its sponsor Marathon Petroleum Corporation’s (MPC) recently announced Utica shale plans.

Category:
Crude Oil

Crude oil and diluent pipelines running through the two largest Canadian marketing and transportation hubs at Hardisty and Edmonton in Alberta have current capacity of 3.9 MMb/d. That will double to 8 MMb/d by 2018 if currently planned projects are completed. Getting the resultant expanding flows of crude and diluent in and out of Alberta via these hubs poses the same challenge that Gulf Coast operators are facing from the flood of crude descending on them from the US and Canada. Today we begin a new series detailing midstream Canadian terminal operations at Hardisty and Edmonton.

Category:
Crude Oil

We estimate that over 4 MMb/d of new crude transportation capacity will have opened up to the Texas Gulf Coast by the end of 2015 – to a region with just under 3.7 MMb/d of nameplate refining capacity. With crude exports restricted by Federal law, some of that crude is going to need to find a home – most likely at Eastern Gulf refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi. Today we look at how some of the incoming flood of crude could be redistributed across the Gulf Coast region.

Category:
Crude Oil

Owning a refinery in the middle of the fastest growing shale crude basin sounds like a good idea. Calumet Specialty Products LP thinks so – they purchased the 14.5 Mb/d San Antonio refinery in December 2012 located at the heart of the Eagle Ford. Since then Calumet has set about expanding production and organizing more efficient crude transportation. But owning such a small refinery near the largest refining region in the world has its risks. Today we describe how location and crude supply advantages help keep this refinery competitive.

Category:
Hydrocarbons

The second release of the EIA’s new monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for November came out on Tuesday (November 12, 2013) showing December natural gas production is expected to increase in four of the six regions covered. But one region alone – the Marcellus – accounts for 76 percent of natural gas production growth. In fact if the Marcellus were a country it would rank 5th in world gas production – ahead of Qatar. The DPR provides a breakdown of rig productivity and production from new and legacy wells and includes access to historical data back to 2007. Today we continue our review of the latest Energy Information Administration’s  (EIA) report.

Category:
Crude Oil

The potential for the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) tight-oil play to become the next big thing in U.S. oil production is attracting exploration and production companies willing to put some money at risk in the hope of big payoffs. The TMS seems to have a lot going for it. The play in central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi is said to have seven billion barrels of oil in place deep below ground but only a stone’s throw from the pipeline networks, terminals and refineries of the Gulf Coast. But succeeding in TMS requires overcoming the play’s challenging characteristics through nuanced drilling techniques and completion formulas. Today in the second part of our series on TMS we examine what the E&P pioneers have accomplished so far in drilling and production, what they’re learning from their experience, and what it would take to turn TMS’s potential into reality.

Category:
Crude Oil

Recent third quarter earnings reports from US refiners have reflected lower refining margins squeezed by higher feedstock prices for inland crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising to the same level as coastal crudes like Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) while product prices stood still. In the past two weeks domestic crude prices have fallen below $100/Bbl in the face of a Gulf Coast supply glut. But despite lower crude costs, refinery margins have continued to weaken. The primary culprit has been sharply falling gasoline prices. Today we review what Gulf Coast refiners could do to improve margins.