

Which is true, A or B? (A) Data center demand to power AI applications is the most transformative force to hit energy markets in years, or (B) This is one of the most overhyped, inflated narratives ever. We hear a constant stream of announcements, promotions and proclamations from developers, tech giants, utilities and politicians, many predicting a revolutionary surge in electricity and gas demand that will change everything. At the same time, others warn of a speculative bubble destined to pop. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, sorting out which side is closer to reality is one of the most important questions facing U.S. energy markets.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
US oil and gas rig count opened the new month with a small gain, adding one rig vs. a week ago and climbing to 537 for the week ending September 5 according to Baker Hughes. Rigs were added in the Haynesville (+1) and All Other (+1), while the Permian (-1) was the only basin to post a decline.
For the week of September 5, Baker Hughes reported that the Western Canadian gas-directed rig count rose three to 58 (blue line and text in left hand chart below), nine less than one year ago and is the lowest for this time of year since 2020.
Let’s face it — for producers, the last couple of years have stung, with low-slung energy prices allowing little-to-no returns on drilling investments in most parts of the major shale basins. A side effect of the low price environment in the past two years has been the shrinking geographic footprint of the Shale Revolution. About 50% of all onshore rigs in the Lower 48 currently are clustered in the top 20 counties for drilling activity. In effect, this also means a lot of the new production growth will come primarily from these same 20 counties, with the potential for all sorts of implications for infrastructure and regional price relationships. In today’s blog, we take a closer look at rig counts by county to see how much the geographic focus of the Shale Revolution has narrowed.
Two new 50-Mb/d, Kinder Morgan-owned and -operated condensate splitters came online during the first seven months of 2015, backed by a 10-year BP commitment to process a total of 84 Mb/d through the units. Located in the Houston Ship Channel’s refinery row, the splitters were expected to provide a profitable outlet to process growing volumes of the ultra-light crude oil known as condensate. Instead, average plant throughput through July 2016 has been only 71% of capacity, well below the 90% average operating level of neighboring refineries. The relatively low level at which these units have been operating reflects sagging condensate processing margins. Today, we detail how Kinder Morgan’s new splitters have been run during their first year or so of operation.
The Shale Revolution sparked a multibillion-dollar re-plumbing of the U.S. crude oil pipeline network that continues to this day, two years after oil prices started falling and one year after oil production volumes followed suit. While the pace of development has at times seemed hectic, the individual decisions to build new pipelines involve a lot of studying, vetting and number crunching. After all, pipelines don’t come cheap, and their success depends to a considerable degree on their long-term usefulness to the market. One of the most important factors in determining whether a crude oil pipeline project makes sense is its capital cost and, with that, the cost of moving oil through it. Today, we continue our look at crude pipeline economics with a discussion of the basics of estimating pipe size and cost, and figuring the optimal capacity of a given pipeline project.
MPLX LP and the midstream limited partnership’s subsidiaries (collectively referred to as “MPLX”) are stepping up to address a lingering hydrocarbon-delivery issue in the Utica and “wet” Marcellus plays, namely, how to more efficiently transport the field condensate and natural gasoline produced there to refineries, Western Canadian heavy-crude shippers and other end-users. Currently, condensate and natural gasoline are moved within and out of production areas in eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania via truck, rail or barge. MPLX’s three-part, $500-million plan, the first elements of which are nearing completion, is mostly about pipelines—a mix of new ones and creatively repurposed existing ones. It looks like a win-win for condensate and natural gasoline producers and buyers. Today we begin a series on improving the flow of these two close relatives in the hydrocarbon family to buyers in the Midwest and beyond.
Way back when—before 2012—few outside a small cadre of oil producers and marketers paid any attention to condensates, or even knew they existed. Then two events shook the condensate world. First came rapid growth in the Eagle Ford, where crude oil production turned out to be almost half condensates. Then the Department of Commerce started allowing condensate exports while maintaining the ban on international sales of mainstream crude oil. Suddenly condensates were the star of the show. But like the careers of one-hit rock & roll wonders, the stardom didn’t last long. The crude oil price crash hit Eagle Ford hard, resulting in a disproportionate decline in condensate production. Congress then sent condensates further back into obscurity by removing the export ban for all crude oil in December 2015, eliminating any special status for the product. That was the end of the road for the condensate story, right? Wrong. Because during condensate’s day in the sun, billions were spent on pipelines, stabilizers, splitters, export facilities and refinery modifications, all focused on providing new markets for condensates. Oops. Today we consider how the next chapter of the condensate saga will play out.
Western Canada has extraordinary oil and natural gas resources, but producers there have been suffering from a long list of woes. Oil sands producers need higher oil prices to justify expansion projects, and face shortfalls in pipeline takeaway capacity to refineries in Eastern Canada and export markets on both coasts. Natural gas producers can move gas east, but face stiff competition from the Marcellus and Utica plays; meanwhile, their efforts to expand LNG exports from British Columbia have been stymied by the new glut in worldwide LNG supplies and low LNG prices. Today we discuss the challenges in advancing Canadian oil and gas infrastructure projects.
Eight years into the Shale Revolution –– and two years into a crude oil price slump that put the brakes on production growth –– midstream companies continue to develop new pipelines to move crude to market. As always, the aims of these investments in new takeaway capacity may include reducing or eliminating delivery constraints, shrinking the price differentials that hurt producers in takeaway-constrained areas, or giving producers access to new markets or refineries access to new sources of supply. Whatever the economic rationale for developing new pipeline capacity, midstreamers and potential crude oil shippers need to examine–– early on –– the likely capital cost of possible projects, if only to help them determine which projects are worth pursuing, and which aren’t. Today, we begin a series on how midstream companies and potential shippers evaluate (and continually reassess) the rationale for new crude pipeline capacity in today’s topsy-turvy markets.
There is a story behind every new crude oil pipeline built to supply a decades-old refinery. After all, the refinery surely had a well-established crude-delivery system in place –– why change horses now, especially with refinery margins under so much pressure? Typically, the answer is that, well, times have changed. Or, more specifically, the Shale Revolution has up-ended traditional crude sourcing, forced refinery owners to rethink their crude slates, and opened up opportunities to access new, lower-cost oil. Today, we continue our look at these new pipeline connections, their rationales, and their effects on other pipelines, barge deliveries and crude-by-rail.
New pipelines to increase crude oil takeaway capacity from major producing areas like the Permian and the Bakken to oil storage and distribution hubs like Houston, TX and Cushing, OK seem to garner most of the media’s attention. Just outside the spotlight’s glare, though –– and even during the ongoing slump in oil prices –– midstream companies are building several “demand-pull” pipelines to move crude to refineries more efficiently, and to give refineries easier, cheaper access to new, desirable supplies. Today, we begin a look at these new pipeline connections, their rationales, and their effects on other pipelines, barge deliveries and crude-by-rail.
The 450-Mb/d Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) has broken away from the pack of out-of-the-Bakken crude takeaway projects. On August 2, Enbridge Inc., through its master limited partnership Enbridge Energy Partners, agreed to take a large stake in DAPL from Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Sunoco Logistics Partners (SXL), a move that suggests Enbridge’s own 225-Mb/d Sandpiper Pipeline may drop out of the race soon. Joining Enbridge in the $2 billion deal is Marathon Petroleum, its former joint venture partner and anchor shipper on Sandpiper. Today, we consider these recent developments in the long-running effort to transport North Dakota crude oil to market more efficiently.
In the past century and a half, Sarnia, ON has evolved into one of Canada’s leading refinery and petrochemical centers, and a major consumer of Alberta and Bakken crude and Alberta and –– more recently –– Marcellus/Utica natural gas liquids. Getting that oil and those NGLs to southwestern Ontario is the task of a small group of pipelines and a few rail facilities; other pipelines out of Sarnia help to move refined petroleum products to nearby demand centers. Today, we continue our comprehensive review of refinery and petchem-related infrastructure in and around Ontario’s Chemical Valley.
Three months after a series of devastating wildfires wreaked havoc in Alberta’s oil sands region, production is essentially back to normal. Temporary shutdowns at several production sites initially reduced the oil sands’ output by more than 1 MMbbl/d –– or about one-third the area’s pre-fire production level –– which trimmed inventories and goosed world oil prices. But the short-term closures appear to have had little effect on the Canadian and U.S. refineries that process oil sands-sourced crude. Now, oil sands producers (stung more than many by the collapse in oil prices) are focused again on reducing production costs in an effort to stay profitable in a low-oil-price era. Today, we summarize the current, post-wildfires state of oil sands production and consider the region’s future in the new, tight-oil/Shale Revolution world.
Since 2012, the capacity of the Jones Act fleet of tankers and large articulated tug barges (ATBs) has increased by more than one-third, to 22.5 million barrels, and over the next 18 months, new-build tankers and more large ATBs will add another 4.5 million barrel –– or 20% –– to the capacity total. That’s raised a lot of concern among vessel owners about a capacity glut and the potential for bargain-basement charter rates. What’s important to factor in, though, is that a lot of older Jones Act vessels are getting close to retirement age, and their exit from the shipping “work force” will help to mitigate the effects of any over-build. Today, we continue our series on recent developments in the Jones Act fleet and how they affect crude oil and petroleum products shippers.
With crude storage tanks along the U.S Gulf Coast nearly full, the nine storage terminals currently operational in the Caribbean offer an advantageous close-by alternative. Right now these terminals are heavily used by Venezuela for oil blending and distribution, but there has been growing interest and investment from outside the region. China is now neck and neck with the U.S. as the world’s largest crude importer and is making a significant strategic investment in Caribbean storage to cement crude supply deals with Latin American producers. Private equity fund ArcLight Capital and trader Freepoint Commodities together purchased a huge terminal and shuttered refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands in January of this year (2016) and have leased most of the working storage to Chinese-owned Sinopec. Today, we examine the growing role of Caribbean crude terminals. (This blog is based on Morningstar’s recently published Caribbean Crude Storage Outlook [1], which provides a comprehensive analysis of this evolving market.)
Despite slowdowns in drilling, completions and crude oil production in the Niobrara Shale region in northeastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming, new pipeline takeaway capacity out of the tight oil play is being built, apparently due to the expectations of some that the Niobrara will bounce back more quickly than most other basins if and when crude prices rise –– and stay –– above $55-60/bbl. Later this year, the 340 Mb/d Saddlehorn/Grand Mesa Pipeline to the crude storage and distribution hub in Cushing, OK is expected to begin operation, supplementing Pony Express and White Cliffs, which already move crude from the Bakken and the Niobrara’s Denver-Julesburg and Powder River basins, and giving Niobrara producers more than enough takeaway capacity for the foreseeable future. Today, we look at the possibility of an infrastructure over-build in the eastern Rockies.