RBN Energy

For most of us, matching spending with income is the logical path to financial stability. However, after decades of aggressive investment in search of growth, the “dollars in equals dollars out” method of allocating free cash flow has been an adjustment for many U.S. oil and gas producers. Their post-pandemic concentration on keeping capital spending well below inflows, maintaining healthy leverage ratios and directing excess funds to reward shareholders with dividends and stock buybacks has revitalized the industry and restored investor confidence. But ebbing commodity prices have upped the difficulty of this quarterly zero-sum game. In today’s RBN blog, we will analyze the shifts detected in Q2 2025 cash allocation of the 38 major U.S. E&Ps we cover. 

Analyst Insights

Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.

By Christine Groenewold - Wednesday, 9/03/2025 (3:15 pm)
Report Highlight: Chart Toppers

The monthly natural gasoline price for September 2025 stands at 85% of NYMEX crude, reflecting a modest uptick of one percentage point from August’s 84%. However, the ratio remains slightly below year-ago levels, down one point from 86% in September 2024.

By Liz Dicken - Wednesday, 9/03/2025 (1:45 pm)
Report Highlight: Crude Voyager

U.S.

Daily Energy Blog

The three co-owners of the 1.2-MMb/d Capline Pipeline from St. James, LA, to Patoka, IL, have begun assessing whether there is sufficient shipper interest in reversing the flow of one of the U.S.’s largest crude oil pipelines in the early 2020s. There are good reasons both for ending Capline’s long run as a northbound-flowing pipe and for repurposing the pipeline to help transport heavy western Canadian oil and other crudes south to refineries in eastern Louisiana and Mississippi and to export markets. But there also are logical questions to ask, such as why Capline’s owners envision sending only 300 Mb/d south on the pipe, and why they don’t see the reversal occurring for five years. Today, we examine the forces behind Capline’s possible reversal and the benefits that flipping the pipe’s direction might provide.

U.S. crude exports continue to takeoff — increasing during the week ended September 29, to a new record just under 2 MMb/d, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), with 1.3 MMb/d in the first week of October followed by 1.8 MMb/d in EIA’s Wednesday report. The crude exodus is primarily occurring from port terminals along the Gulf Coast and is expected to continue as expanding Permian basin shale production is shipped directly to marine docks by pipeline. Recent and planned expansions to crude storage are largely linked to demand for new capacity at marine docks staging cargoes for export. In today’s blog, Morningstar’s Sandy Fielden details the rapid growth of commercial crude storage capacity at Gulf Coast terminals since 2011.

Permian producers and shippers want to be able to transport their crude oil to whichever destination will give them the best netbacks. But that’s a moving target, so what they really need is destination optionality — something they can only get if the gathering systems and shuttle pipelines that move oil from the lease tie into multiple takeaway pipelines with different end-points like Houston, Corpus Christi and Cushing. Midstream companies are clamoring to meet that need by expanding existing shuttle pipelines and building new ones. Today, we continue our review of intra-Permian shuttle pipelines.

Expectations of continued production growth in the Permian’s Delaware Basin — and the need to provide crude oil producers and shippers with multiple connections to takeaway pipelines out of the play — are spurring the expansion of existing shuttle pipelines and the development of new ones. A number of these shuttle pipes are part of larger gathering-and-shuttle systems whose pipe diameters increase as they move crude downstream toward takeaway interconnections. Today, we continue our review of intra-basin pipelines that transport oil to takeaway pipes and provide destination optionality in the process.

Shuttle pipelines in the Permian provide high-volume, straight-shot links between crude oil gathering systems and multiple takeaway pipelines out of the play ­­— giving producers and shippers critically important destination optionality. Assuming the shuttles are well-positioned and tied to increasing production on one end and multiple takeaway pipes on the other, existing intra-basin shuttles are highly valued and being gobbled up by major midstream players. And to keep pace with Permian production growth, existing shuttle systems are being expanded and new ones are being planned. Today, we continue our review of key crude-related infrastructure in the nation’s hottest oil production region.

There’s a fierce battle on to build new intra-basin pipelines in the Permian to transport crude oil from gathering systems in hot new production areas to takeaway pipelines out of the play — and to give producers and shippers destination optionality in the process. Participants better bring their A game, though, because successfully developing “shuttle” pipelines in the Permian requires a keen understanding of what’s happening on the field and how best to move the ball forward. Three key factors are lining up producer commitments, providing that critical takeaway optionality, and minimizing the total cost of moving crude from the lease to the Gulf Coast, Cushing or other destinations. Today, we begin a blog series on existing and planned intra-basin oil pipelines in the Permian — what drives the development of these in-demand pipeline “legs” and what it takes for them to succeed.

Argentina has world-class hydrocarbon resources, including shale reserves that rank near the very top globally. But the country’s conventional oil and natural gas production has been sagging for several years, and by 2011 Argentina had flipped from being a net energy exporter to a net importer. It has also been a frequent recipient of LNG cargoes from Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass liquefaction plant/export terminal in Louisiana. Things have been turning around of late, though, and there may no longer be a reason to cry for Argentina. Investment in the country’s Vaca Muerta shale play — whose oil and gas potential has been compared to the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas — is ramping up, drilling and production results are pouring in and at least some midstream infrastructure is being developed to handle what could someday become a Latin American shale boom. Today we take a mirada fresca (or fresh look) at the situation.

Russia is a major producer — and exporter — of crude oil and natural gas, and a major exporter of refined products to boot. So it’s important to keep an eye on what’s going on in Russia, because as U.S. producers and refiners know all too well, what happens halfway around the world often has ripple effects in places like the Permian, the Houston Ship Channel and the Sabine Pass LNG terminal. Today, we discuss Russian crude production and refinery output, its compliance with the OPEC/NOPEC agreement to rein in crude production, and the country’s efforts to steer more of its crude and refined-products exports to Russian ports.  This blog is based on the latest FSU Monthly report from our friends at FGE – Facts Global Energy. 

Since last winter, the price gap between light crude oil and heavy crude — otherwise known as the light-heavy differential — has narrowed considerably. In February, the price difference between Louisiana Light Sweet crude (LLS) and heavy Maya crude on the Gulf Coast was almost $10/bbl, providing an advantage to refiners who have invested in cokers and other equipment that allows them to run a heavier crude slate. But since June Maya has on average sold for only about $5/bbl less than LLS. Today we examine the shrinking price gap between light and heavy crude and its effect on coking and cracking margins.

It has been a tragic week for the Gulf Coast, with months if not years of cleanup and rebuilding ahead of the region. But already, Houston, Corpus Christi, Port Arthur/Beaumont, Lake Charles and other affected areas are coming back online through the hard work of resilient Texans and Louisianans as well as aid coming in from across the country. And even though the energy industry is also moving quickly to put Hurricane Harvey in the rearview mirror, the damage and disruption have been extensive. It is still much too early to fully understand what has happened and how long the recovery is going to take. But with information that we can piece together from public statements, data analysis and conversations with knowledgeable market participants, it is possible to start developing an assessment of Harvey’s effects. That’s what we will tackle in today’s blog.

The largest single expense associated with operating wells in a number of U.S. shale plays — including the Permian — is the cost of dealing with the large volume of produced water that emerges from wells along with crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. In many cases, produced-water disposal costs account for more than half of total well-operating costs, and every dime or dollar per barrel that an exploration and production company (E&P) needs to spend on produced water increases its break-even cost and saps its bottom line. To rein in trucking and other produced water-related expenses, more E&Ps and midstream companies are (1) developing produced-water treatment plants that allow the water to be reused in hydraulic fracturing and (2) building centralized systems that efficiently transport untreated produced water from multiple wells to treatment plants or to regional disposal wells. Today we continue our surfing-themed series on the effect of sand and water costs on producer economics with a look at how the old ways of dealing with produced water are being replaced by the new.

The stars may finally be aligning for two related crude oil infrastructure projects that, if undertaken, would provide an important new pathway to overseas markets for Bakken, western Canadian and other North American crude. The first would involve reversing the Capline Pipeline, which was built to transport crude north from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Midwest refiners; the second would make modest physical changes to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port — better known as LOOP — to allow the crude import facility off the Bayou State coast to load crude onto ships, including Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). Today we look at the new infrastructure and market forces that may finally spur Capline’s reversal and lead imports-focused LOOP to enable exports.

Production cuts by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers have had a profound effect on Asian refiners’ crude oil procurement by opening the door to more U.S., Canadian and North Sea crude deliveries to the Far East and South Asia. Of the four major Asian refining countries, China has seen the largest drop in imports of East of Suez crude, which includes oil produced in the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific region, Australasia and far-east Russia, but India, Japan and South Korea have experienced declines as well. What’s going on? And what does it mean for Atlantic Basin crude producers? Today, we discuss recent changes in global crude price differentials and Asian crude import slates, which include more imports from the U.S.

Their nickname — teapot refineries — may make them seem small and nonthreatening, but China’s privately owned, independent refining sector is anything but. Teapots have been growing in size and processing sophistication, and they now account for about one-quarter of total Chinese refining capacity. Their rise has raised the ire of China’s big national oil companies, who are pressing the government to rein in teapot refiners’ aggressive tactics and alleged circumvention of tax and environmental laws. Today we look at the growing role of China’s teapot refineries, the challenge they pose to much larger competitors and the Chinese government’s recent efforts to put a lid on the teapots’ ambitions.

The rig count in the Niobrara Shale’s Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin has doubled in the past year, and crude oil production has been rebounding modestly in recent months. Most of the activity in the play is concentrated in super-hot Weld County, CO, where 23 of the DJ Basin’s 29 active rigs are set up. But with crude prices below $50/barrel, will the DJ make a real comeback, or will production sag again, just like it did after the big price declines of 2014-15? And what about Niobrara-related midstream infrastructure? Even some of the more optimistic forecasts leave the region with far more pipeline takeaway capacity than it needs. Today we consider recent developments in the Rocky Mountain region’s most important shale play and what they mean for exploration and production companies and midstreamers.