

The popularity of weather derivatives has ebbed and flowed since their introduction in the late 1990s but trading activity has rebounded in recent years as the trading community has increasingly begun to reassess the need to hedge weather-related risks — everything from high temperatures and rainfall levels to power prices and cooling demand. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the role of weather derivatives, how they are used to hedge risk, and why they may be becoming increasingly important to the energy industry.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
US oil and gas rig count climbed to 549 rigs for the week ending September 26, an increase of seven rigs vs. a week ago and the largest gain since July according to Baker Hughes data.
Low-carbon steel that utilizes green hydrogen in the production process will be used in Microsoft data centers under an agreement announced this week with Swedish steelmaker Stegra.
Yesterday (April 30, 2014) the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yet another increase in Gulf Coast inventories as of April 25 - adding 5.7 MMBbl to set a new record of over 215 MMBbl of crude. Stocks in the region are now 27 MMBbl above the 5-year average and even if refiners cranked up output to the highest levels ever (96.5 percent utilization) the surplus would take at least 3 months to get back to “normal”. Crude prices are being impacted as the premium of Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) crude at the Gulf Coast over West Texas Intermediate (WTI) delivered to Cushing, OK has narrowed close to $2/Bbl. With no crude exports allowed to ease the surplus it looks like Gulf Coast prices will remain under pressure. Today we look at prospects of reducing the crude surplus.
Permian Basin crude producers are currently churning out over 1.5 MMb/d of crude from a basin that has produced oil since the 1920’s but is the center of a recent renaissance. With new production comes new demand for takeaway capacity and between January 2013 and the end of 2015, about 1 million barrels of new pipeline has been constructed or will come online directed towards Houston, Nederland and Corpus Christi, TX. About a dozen new gathering systems are being constructed to help get new production from the wellhead to the larger takeaway pipelines. Today we continue our series on new Permian gathering infrastructure.
The success of an LNG export project is founded on many things. Good connections to natural gas supply. Easy access to LNG buyers. A competitive delivered cost. Timing matters too, and may turn out to be a critical factor for Veresen’s Jordan Cove LNG export project in Oregon. Not only is it the first greenfield project to win the approval of the US Department of Energy (earlier DOE approvals went to projects to convert existing import terminals to export facilities), Jordan Cove also would be the first new LNG export terminal on the US West Coast—days closer to key buyers in the Asia/Pacific region than its Gulf Coast competitors. And it appears likely to beat out the first LNG export projects in British Columbia. Today in the first of a two-part blog series, we take a look at the Jordan Cove plan—its gas supply sources, the pipelines feeding it, the project’s economics, and its likely fate.
Last week Transport Canada (the federal department responsible for transportation policy) directed that DOT-111 rail tank cars built prior to new safety standards proposed in January 2014 be phased out or refitted within three years. Fifty five thousand railcars built to the new standards are currently on back-order. The directive could constrain rapidly developing Canadian crude by rail shipments to the US - currently running at about 250 Mb/d according to an April report by Peters and Company. Increased use of crude-by-rail is driven by pipeline congestion out of Alberta - a situation the latest Keystone pipeline delay appears to make worse. Today we review unit train options out of Western Canada.
The next six months look set to be quite turbulent for Permian Basin producers. Crude production is now over 1.5 MMb/d and supplies trying to get to market are facing congested pipelines leading to price discounts. New capacity is due online in June in the shape of the 300 Mb/d Magellan/Occidental joint venture BridgeTex pipeline. But many Permian producers are also awaiting the build out of gathering systems to deliver their crude to regional hubs in Crane, Midland and Colorado City where the major takeaway pipelines originate. At least a dozen of these systems are currently being developed. Today we start a new series on the build out of Permian gathering infrastructure.
From the start of the Bakken oil production boom four years ago, a substantial portion of the associated natural gas produced has been flared, mostly due to a lack of gas gathering and processing infrastructure. Widespread flaring continues as the energy industry struggles to keep pace with the Bakken’s explosive growth. Finally, though, a confluence of events—new gas gathering and processing capacity coming online, new rules on flaring, and the emergence of new technologies for capturing and using stranded gas--suggests flaring activity may decline significantly over the next few years. In this new blog series, we examine what the energy industry, the government and entrepreneurs have been doing to help solve one of the shale era’s most persistent and high-profile problems.
Exports of liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs – propane and butane) from the U.S. to international markets - are expected to nearly double from 460 Mb/d in 2014 to 915 Mb/d in 2019 as production from gas plant processing exceeds domestic demand. Available Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) vessels to carry these increased overseas volumes are limited. As a result spot freight rates have reached record levels recently. In today’s blog “Stayin’ Afloat With the LPGees – Part 4 Freight Voyage Calculation Model” Sandy Fielden walks through a voyage cost calculation. Today we walk through a voyage cost calculation.
Despite the challenges they would likely face, as many as four companies are exploring the possibility of exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Canadian Maritimes [1] to Europe, Latin America and Asia. Their thinking is, with Marcellus natural gas production expected to continue increasing, with Sable Island and Deep Panuke gas just offshore, and Europe little more than a week’s boat ride away, LNG exports from Nova Scotia and New Brunswick may well make economic sense. But LNG export terminals are among the most capital-intensive projects; also, piping Marcellus gas through New England—a region with serious wintertime gas-delivery constraints—to the Maritimes would require major pipeline upgrades. Today we look into the LNG project plans and the pipeline expansion needs in more detail.
With the Keystone Pipeline decision booted down the road again Friday, the challenge for Canadian oil sands producers trying to get their crude to market looms large once again. Growing volumes of Canadian crude will be carried by rail this year to bypass pipeline congestion. But although larger unit trains are beginning to operate from the oil sands region, they mostly help larger producers connected to the pipeline feeder network. Today we review continuing manifest rail shipments by small producers.
Propane has received a lot of airtime in recent months given the Polar Vortex and heavy crop drying demand anomalies coinciding with growing propane export volumes. Now it’s time to show normal butane a little love as normal butane exports almost tripled from this time last year. In January 2013, 22 Mb/d of butane was exported; that number was 63 Mb/d in January 2014, as reported by the EIA. All indications are that butane export volumes will be experiencing an astronomical growth rate over the next five years, reaching 300 Mb/d by 2019. What are the factors driving this rate of growth, and what are the implications for refiners and petrochemical companies? In today’s blog, we assess the rapid growth in normal butane exports.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for January 2014 indicates that US crude production has now returned to levels not seen since December 1988. Canadian crude production is also at record levels. The prospects look good for a combination of US production and Canadian imports to free the US from overseas imports by the early 2020’s. But along with this success comes a challenge balancing new streams of crude that are predominantly light with a lot of refinery capacity configured to process heavier crude. This balancing act is compounded by a ban on US crude exports. Today we review the contrast between crude and refined product export rules.
All the export LPGs on the West Coast are in a tank in the middle of Washington State in somebody else’s name. So if you’re dreamin’ about LPG exports, the West Coast is a brand new game. Apologies to Larry Gatlin.
On March 4th, Petrogas announced the purchase of the Ferndale, WA LPG terminal, the only functioning butane and propane export facility on the U.S. west coast. Then last Thursday (April 10th) Sage Midstream announced a project to build another world scale LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) export terminal a couple of hundred miles south at the Port of Longview, WA. These are big developments for the west coast LPG markets. Today we begin a blog series that examines the history of Ferndale, how it has been used in the past, and what these two announcements mean for the future of west coast propane and butane markets.
Gulf Coast crude storage is at record levels and looks set to continue growing as new pipeline capacity opens up later this year from Cushing and the Permian Basin. At Magellan’s Analyst Day presentation last week (April 9, 2014) the company said that demand for crude storage at all locations remains strong with average utilization of 97 percent plus. OilTanking say their Houston crude storage is 99.1 percent contracted. Today we ponder where Gulf Coast crude stocks are located.
Last week (ending April 4) the summer 2014 natural gas storage injection season began with a whimper by adding 4 Bcf to empty tanks pummeled by the Polar Vortex. That was a slower than expected start to the Herculean task of replenishing gas stocks before next winter. A lot of factors will have to fall into place for that to happen. A too-hot summer could pull gas away from injection and into demand for power burn. Today we continue our analysis of regional power burn prospects with a look at New England demand this year.
With U.S. ethane prices low and ethane rejection expected to continue increasing, interest in exporting liquid ethane is ramping up. But there are significant barriers to these exports, including: (1) loading and unloading terminal infrastructure, (2) shipping, (3) pricing, and (4) petrochemical demand. We examined the first two of these barriers earlier this week. Today we wrap up this blog series, examining pricing and demand.