Last week we held the first RBN School of Energy at the St. Regis hotel in Houston. Based on the feedback we received it was a huge success, achieving the goals we laid out for the conference. Today we’ll report on the conference itself, and review some of the most important points covered in the curriculum. Warning, this blog could (and should) be considered an advertorial, so read at your own risk.
Daily Energy Blog
Monday, 2/18/2013
On January 1st, 2013, California’s cap-and-trade program for Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) went live and West Coast energy markets entered a whole new world. Wholesale electricity prices in California increased 20% as a result and other energy markets have felt the impact. For example, the new rules pushed up the average cost of refining oil by $0.78/bbl. For companies subject to the regulations, the bottom line is that if you generate GHG, you pay. But exactly who pays, how much you pay, and when you pay are all subject to a dizzying array of rules and regulations. Today we’ll navigate the turbulent and uncharted seas of California cap-and-trade markets.
Thursday, 2/14/2013
Alkylate is a valuable blending component that accounts for about 12 percent of the US gasoline pool. Alkylate is manufactured by combining elements derived from NGLs and crude oil refining and is an important link between these two hydrocarbon markets. Alkylate has critical qualities required to meet complex modern gasoline quality specifications. Today we look at the qualities and manufacture of alkylate.
Wednesday, 1/02/2013
Worried about 2013? You are not alone. There are many rational reasons to be concerned about possible developments in energy markets this year, let alone phobias about the number thirteen (triskaidekaphobia). But hey, this is the first working day of the New Year, so let’s look on the positive side. In fact we are so psyched that we are going to violate the cardinal rule of consulting. We are going to make predictions. Of the future! So hold on to your seat and get ready for our Top Ten Energy Prognostications for 2013, which according to Chinese astrology is the Year of the Snake. Hmm, that doesn’t sound good.
Sunday, 12/30/2012
During 2012 we’ve posted over 200 RBN blogs, covering everything from ethylene cracker margins (Ethylene Ethylene, Prettiest margin I ever seen), to northeast natural gas basis (The Mighty Algonquin) to the impact of a major crude pipeline reversal (Oh-Ho-Ho it’s Magic). Now in our last posting of the year it seems appropriate to take a page out of Casey Kasem’s playbook to look back at the top blogs of 2012 based on website hits. And there’s more! In response to many members who have asked, we’ll also provide an index of all of our blogs by topic. And finally we will introduce a new website feature that will give you the ability to see what is trending on the RBN site in real time. BTW, we are not really going to look at 40 blogs. After all it is New Year’s Eve. But we will look a few of the really big winners for 2012.
Tuesday, 12/25/2012
Fundamental to our approach to energy markets at RBN is a view that natural gas, crude oil and NGLs have become much more interdependent than in the days before shale. What happens in gas impacts NGLs, which influences crude oil, which loops back to the natural gas market. We’ve written about these cross-commodity relationships in a number of RBN blogs during 2012, showing the calculations and walking through several spreadsheet models. Now we are taking our analysis one step further. Starting on December 31, 2012, we are launching a new RBN website feature called Spotcheck that displays daily updated graphs of these relationships. Today we’ll describe what is coming next week, and how you can interpret the trends to better understand developments in North America hydrocarbon markets.
Sunday, 11/11/2012
China has got a lot of shale gas. To the tune of 1,275 Tcf of technically recoverable shale reserves, by some estimates. But today it is all still sitting in the ground. If that potential is tapped in any significant way, it will have a huge impact on global gas balances, with implications for LNG markets, economic competitiveness and geopolitical clout. But a lot of obstacles must be removed before the promise of Chinese shale gas can be realized. Last week I spoke at the Global Unconventional Gas Summit, held in Beijing. After listening to two days of presentations on the issues, I came away with the view that while some of these barriers are inherent in the Chinese system, probably the biggest barrier is a general misunderstanding of why shale gas developed the way it did in the U.S. in the first place. So today we will provide a small window into the Chinese shale gas initiative and in the process learn something about the real drivers of shale gas development here in the U.S.
Sunday, 10/28/2012
The specialized corporate structures called Master Limited Partnerships (MLP’s) have become part of the landscape for midstream energy companies. They have helped provide efficient access to investment capital to build out infrastructure that is now delivering new shale basin natural gas and oil production to market. MLP investors have enjoyed high yield returns from these tax-advantaged companies with low risk toll road income. Newer MLP structures appear to be moving away from the safety of toll road income into riskier commodity price exposure. Today we investigate this trend in the MLP market.
Thursday, 10/18/2012
A couple of weeks ago RBN’s Sandy Fielden attended the Platts Master Limited Partnership (MLP) Symposium in Las Vegas and listened to a number of presentations about the performance of these specialized corporate structures and the rivers of investment capital that their high income yields are attracting. You can’t turn your head in the energy midstream business without bumping into an MLP. Today we explain what MLPs are and why they dominate today’s energy midstream business.
Before we start – a quick disclaimer. RBN Energy does not advocate investment in in MLPs. We are not an investment advisor. The purpose of this article is not investment advice or endorsement.
Wednesday, 10/17/2012
Coal is having a tough year. Producers must be wondering what else can go wrong. In spite of everything, coal continues to play an invaluable role in supplying US energy and as a raw material in steel manufacture. Today we take a closer look at where coal comes from and how it is used.
By now nearly everyone knows the US coal industry is on the ropes. In “Old King Coal is Down in the Hole” we learned how coal producers were hurting to the point of closing mines and restructuring. NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal prices have fallen 22 percent so far this year from $69.67/ short ton (ST) on January 3, 2012 to $54.60/ST on Wednesday (October 17, 2012). As natural gas prices fell below $2/MMBtu in April, power generators switched from using coal as a baseload fuel to natural gas on an unprecedented scale (see Talkin ‘Bout My Generation). Since over 90 percent of coal demand comes from power generation, coal consumption fell as a result. World demand for more valuable metallurgical coal has also slumped as China reduced steel output and the European economies continued to court recession. On top of all that, environmental legislation threatens future coal plant construction as well as the life of legacy plants that have to be retro fitted with expensive pollution control hardware to meet higher Clean Air standards.
Saturday, 10/06/2012
News flash! ---Rail transportation has become a very big deal in the business of transporting crude oil, NGLs and petroleum products!!----The whole world does not revolve around pipelines! Yup, the media has discovered that hydrocarbons can ride the rails. Never mind that liquid hydrocarbons have been moving in tank cars for 150 years. The news is that rail is having a market impact like never before. And that is because there has been a strategic shift in the way rail transportation is being used by the petroleum industry. In Part II of our series we’ll dissect the strategies being used and discuss how things are evolving in the world of tank cars.
Thursday, 9/27/2012
The 51-mile long Panama Canal completed in 1914 connects the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific Ocean. By passing through the Canal ships reduce voyage distances by thousands of miles and journey times by 10 days or more. The Canal is currently constrained by the dimensions of its lock system that limit the size of vessel that can pass through. An expansion project started in 2006 and set to complete in early 2015 will increase the dimensions so that larger ships can use the canal. Today we assess the consequences for tanker movements.
Tuesday, 9/04/2012
In the wake of competition from historically low natural gas prices and anti carbon environmental legislation the domestic US coal industry is reeling but it remains competitive in an expanding world market. In today’s blog we dig into projects for the export of Powder River Basin coal from terminals on the West Coast destined for markets in Asia.
Wednesday, 8/08/2012
The ratio between crude oil and natural gas (NYMEX) futures yesterday was 31.8. That is crude prices in $/Bbl were 31.8 X natural gas prices in $/MMbtu. In the 10 years from August 1997 to August 2007 the ratio averaged 7.5 X – that was the old world. Since August 2007 the ratio has averaged 19.4 X – with a dramatic rise during the last year to dizzying heights over 50 X. A major shift to high liquid hydrocarbon production has ensued. Now the futures market indicates the ratio will halve from 31 X to 15 X by 2020. Today we review the prospects for a return to a more normal crude to gas ratio.
Tuesday, 7/17/2012
King Coal is hurting. NYMEX Central Appalachian Coal prices have fallen 18 percent so far this year from $68.67/ short ton (ST) on January 3, 2012 to $57.23/ST on Monday (July 16, 2012). Coal consumption is down and coal company profits are hurting. Patriot Coal filed for bankruptcy last Monday. On top of these woes, new environmental regulations look set to pull the rug from under new coal power plant construction. Today we ask what the future holds for the US coal industry.
United States coal consumption is falling. Over 90 percent of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) power-sector coal consumption fell from 975 million short tons (MMst) in 2010 to 929 MMst in 2011. The July 2012 EIA short term energy outlook forecasts that coal consumption for 2012 will fall to less than 800 MMst . Coal production for the first five months of 2012 was 6 percent below last year's level for the same period and EIA predicts an overall fall in production of 9 percent for 2012. Despite lower production EIA forecasts secondary stocks (at power generation facilities) to be close to record levels by the end of 2012 and to remain at those levels during 2013 (see chart below).
