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Kinda Spooky Revisited: Natural Gas Rig Count, Production and Productivity


Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of those who lost their lives to Hurricane Sandy and to those dealing with the aftermath of the storm.

On Monday as record setting Hurricane Sandy was plowing into the East Coast, another record was quietly being broken.  That record was all time U.S. natural gas production.  According to Bentek numbers it increased to 64.9 Bcf/d (total natural gas production less NGLs and other shrinkage, lower 48 states).  It is kind of spooky that this occurred just before Halloween. That’s because back in August we noted that Halloween could be an important date for natural gas production.  It turns out that is true, but not for the reasons we thought at the time.  So today we return to our original analysis to see what has changed and examine the consequences for the upcoming natural gas heating season.

Friday, August 13th, 2012

We are not your typical energy prognosticators at RBN.  We don’t make guesses about weekly EIA storage numbers, we don’t have a price deck, and we don’t publish market forecast reports.   But you can’t be in the energy markets consulting business without predictions of future supply, demand, and prices for the gas, crude and NGL markets.  So we think a lot about these things.  And every once in a while we succumb to the temptation to look into the crystal ball here in the blogosphere.  So it was back on August 13, 2012, when in the heat of the moment we violated the cardinal rule of all consulting.  We talked about an outlook for a specific day - Halloween 2012 in Natural Gas Rig Count, Production and Productivity: Kinda Spooky.  Now Halloween 2012 is upon us, so we’ll just violate one more cardinal rule of consulting.  We’ll look back at what we said, and compare that to what actually happened. 

Here are the cliff notes for that blog.

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