The battle between Bakken and Western Canadian natural gas supplies for the Chicago market seems to be advancing toward a final showdown of sorts. Associated gas production from the crude-focused Bakken has been rising sharply, but capacity on the Bakken’s two gas takeaway pipelines — Northern Border and Alliance, also utilized by Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) supplies — has been maxed out for a few years now. The result is that Bakken gas is increasingly encroaching on — and pushing back — imports from the WCSB. Bakken gas flows already overtook Canadian gas receipts on Northern Border a year ago. Since then, the gas-on-gas competition and the resulting pipeline constraints have escalated, and things are likely to get worse. Today, we break down the forces at play in the competition for market access.
The RBN NGL Analytic Suite delivers timely updates and outlooks on the domestic propane market, as well as U.S. LPG and ethane exports. The suite includes the bi-monthly NGL Voyager report and the weekly and monthly U.S. Propane Billboard.
We first wrote about rising Bakken gas production and the impending battle with Canadian gas for pipeline takeaway capacity in a July 2012 blog, Border Wars. Since then, Bakken gas output has climbed nearly four-fold, from 0.7 Bcf/d to an average 2.7 Bcf/d in the first four months of 2019 (blue area in Figure 1), according to the latest data available from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). However, about 20% of that volume is being burned off due to persisting processing and pipeline constraints. The Bakken is, of course, an oil-rich formation, where drilling activity has largely focused on crude oil production. However, its wells have always also yielded significant quantities of associated natural gas, which has proven problematic, given the area’s limited gas and NGL infrastructure. Moreover, as we discussed in Shotgun Rider a couple of years ago, drilling activity has tended toward oil wells with higher gas-to-oil ratios, which has the effect of accelerating gas production growth and worsening the shale play’s processing and pipeline constraints. That, in turn, has led to the large volumes of gas being flared (yellow line). In response, significant numbers of new gas gathering systems and processing plants were built. Bakken natural gas processing capacity increased from 1.3 Bcf/d in early 2014 to 2.5 Bcf/d by mid-2019, and more is on the way later this year and beyond. (ONEOK just last week announced plans to expand gas processing capacity by 200 MMcf/d at its existing Bear Creek facility in Dunn County, ND, by the first quarter of 2021.) Nevertheless, for now, Bakken producers continue to struggle with oversupply conditions.
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About the song
"Push and Shove" was written by Gwen Stefani, Tony Kanal, Tom Dumont, Reanno Gordon, Thomas Pentz, David Taylor and Ariel Rechtshaid, and appears as the fourth cut on No Doubt's sixth studio album of the same name. It was released as a promotional single and digital download in August 2012, where it went to #22 on the Billboard Alternative Digital Songs and #30 on the Rock Digital Songs charts. A video of the song was released in September 2012. Personnel on the recording were: Gwen Stefani (vocals), Tony Kanal (bass), Tom Dumont (guitar), Adrian Young (drums, percussion), Busy Signal (vocals), Gabrial McNair (trombone), Stephen Bradley (trumpet), David Moyer (baritone sax), Wayne Wilkins (programming) and David Emery (programming).
Push and Shove served as a comeback album for No Doubt, as their previous album, Rock Steady, was released 10 years prior. It debuted at #3 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. Two singles were officially released from the album, "Settle Down," and "Looking Hot." The album was recorded between January 2011 and July 2012, and released in September 2012. No Doubt shares production credits on the album with Anthony Gorry, Major Lazer, Ariel Rechtshaid and Mark "Spike" Stent.
No Doubt is an American rock band formed in Anaheim, CA, in 1986. Its core members are Gwen Stefani (vocals), Tony Kanal (bass), Tom Dumont (guitar) and Adrian Young (drums). They have released six studio albums, five compilation albums and 22 singles. No Doubt has won two Grammy Awards and one Billboard Music Award. Vocalist Gwen Stefani has made four solo studio albums, appeared on television and in motion pictures, launched a clothing line, and has been a judge on the television music talent contest, The Voice. As a solo artist, she has won one Grammy Award, four MTV Video Music Awards, two Billboard Music Awards and one Brit Award. She’ll be returning to The Voice as a judge this fall. No Doubt last performed together in 2015, and has no plans to record or tour at this time.
