In a Northeast Minute...Everything Can Change - Appalachia Natural Gas Production Outlook

For years now, U.S. Northeast natural gas production growth has been paced by the availability of pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Marcellus/Utica shales. Midstream companies have been racing to build the infrastructure to support drilling and rising supply in the region. And, until now, it was safe to assume that as new pipeline projects come online, volumes would grow to fill them in short order. But over the next couple of years, that may flip:  takeaway capacity additions could soon outpace supply increases, and producers might not be able to keep up. Today, we provide an update of RBN’s Northeast gas production scenarios.

I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For - Where Refiners Are Allocating Their 2017 CapEx Dollars

From an expenditure perspective, the refining side of the U.S. oil sector couldn’t be more different from the exploration and production side. Sure, both demand a lot of capital, but while E&P companies’ capex can ramp way up or way down year-to-year, reflecting shifts in hydrocarbon supply, demand and (mostly) pricing, refiners’ spending tends to be more consistent over time. Refiners focus primarily on maintaining existing assets and on making the incremental enhancements needed to refine new grades of crude, to expand refining capacity and to comply with ever-tightening environmental regulations. Today we review historical capital spending by a few of the largest refining companies in the U.S. and examine several of the larger projects where refiners’ dollars are being invested today.

Take It to the Limit - New Infrastructure to Help Corpus Keep Pace with Permian Growth

Crude oil exports out of Corpus Christi have increased sharply in the past few months, hitting a record 11.5 million barrels (MMbbl) in April 2017. And that may be just the beginning; the volume of crude put on ships in the Shining City by the Sea is likely to rise new Permian-to-Corpus pipeline capacity is completed and as new storage capacity, distribution pipes and marine docks being planned to accommodate a flood of Permian oil come online. Today we continue our series on the build-out of crude-related infrastructure in South Texas’s largest port and refining center with a look at rising crude exports and the new projects being planned.

In a Northeast Minute...Everything Can Change - Marcellus/Utica Takeaway Projects to the Gulf Coast

Plans for LNG export terminals, petrochemical plants and gas-fired power generation along the Gulf Coast have made it the #1 target market for Marcellus/Utica natural gas producers. At the same time, these demand projects along the coast, from the Southeast, Texas and even farther down in Mexico, are counting on more supply growth from Appalachia. Since 2014, close to 5.0 Bcf/d of southbound pipeline capacity has been added and another 4.0 Bcf/d is due by early 2019. Today, we continue our update of pipeline expansions out of Appalachia, this time with a focus on the Ohio-to-Gulf Coast corridor.

Wipe Out! - Putting Frac Sand Supply, Demand and Prices in Perspective

The accelerating trend toward high-intensity completions in the Permian, SCOOP/STACK, Marcellus/Utica, Haynesville and other key shale plays is sharply increasing demand for frac sand. As a result, there's upward pressure on sand prices and there are shortages of certain grades of sand that may continue into 2018.  There is also increased interest in developing sand mines near production areas. It’s important to remember, though, that (1) there’s no evidence that sand-supply issues will seriously curtail drilling and completion activity, and (2) higher sand costs can be offset by the production gains that usually come from using a lot more sand. Today we continue our surfing-themed series on sand costs and water-disposal expenses with a look at the forecast for 2017-18 demand for frac sand, sand pricing trends, efforts to develop regional sand supply sources and the bottom-line upside of high-intensity completions.

My Gusher Finally Came In - U.S. Oil Production Extends Its Influence Over Global Crude Markets

Today OPEC convened in Vienna, expecting to extend production cuts for another nine months beyond June 30. Both the OPEC and NOPEC countries have generally kept to their commitments since January, which has been extremely good news for U.S. producers; they are enjoying higher prices, steadily improving economics and above all, the opportunity to capture market share from OPEC/NOPEC. Since the deal was announced this past November, U.S. production is up 600 Mb/d — about half of OPEC’s promised 1.2 MMb/d cut — and at this rate U.S. producers will have grabbed all of OPEC’s forgone market share by the end of the year. Put simply, the U.S. has taken on a leading role in international oil markets, and as a result it’s now more important than ever to understand on a more granular and real-time level what’s going on in U.S. crude production, imports, exports and inventory. In today’s blog we examine how U.S. producers have been profiting from OPEC/NOPEC efforts to curtail worldwide supply and prop up prices, and how RBN’s new weekly report, “The Gusher,” tracks the key factors affecting U.S. crude.

Recovery - U.S. E&Ps Return to Profitability After Posting Massive Losses in 2015-16

Higher crude oil and natural gas prices, improved efficiency in drilling and completion and other factors combined to give most U.S-based exploration and production companies (E&Ps) solid financial results in the first quarter of 2017 — a stark contrast to their performance in 2015 and 2016. Better yet, the turnaround is providing E&Ps with the optimism and wherewithal to significantly ramp up their planned capital spending this year and in 2018. It’s also giving them an opportunity to zero in on shale plays with low breakeven costs that will help them maintain profitability even if commodity prices stay flat or sag. Today we analyze the first-quarter financial results of a group of 43 U.S. exploration and production companies.

Take It to the Limit - How the Eagle Ford Boom Prepped Corpus for a Flood of Permian Crude

Over the past five years, the Corpus Christi area’s ability to refine or ship out crude oil has increased substantially, driven initially by rising production in the Eagle Ford play in South Texas — growth that has since subsided. Now, Corpus is preparing for a coming onslaught of crude from the red-hot Permian, whose producers see the coastal port as the preferred destination for their light crude and condensates. Today we continue a blog series on Corpus Christi’s crude-related infrastructure with a look at what’s already there and how storage and marine-terminal upgrades made over the past few years will be coming in handy.

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