The values of the crude-to-gas ratio and the Frac spread have fallen fifty percent from their highs this year. Frac spreads represent the difference between the value of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are heavily influenced by the price of crude. Thus the Frac spread is in effect tied to the gas-to crude ratio. Current forward curves suggest that the crude-to-gas ratio will fall another 50 percent over the next few years. Today we ask whether the Frac spread will continue it’s fall next year and beyond.
Daily Energy Blog
Since the world is scheduled to end tomorrow – at least according to the Mayans, it seems appropriate that we examine another looming catastrophe: the obliteration of existing North America natural gas market relationships and flow patterns, coming in 2016. The good news about the end of this natural gas world is that not only do we know it is coming, we can make a pretty good guess about how and when it will happen, and thus prepare for it. Today we’ll examine the market developments that will result in such dire consequences.
The Anadarko Basin centered in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle has not yet developed production on the scale of the Bakken, Eagle Ford or Permian plays. Like the Permian Basin the Anadarko is an old field being recycled using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques. Spectacular initial production of over 5Mb/d from wells in the Granite Wash Hogshooter formation this year has excited producers. Today we look at the basin’s development.
Early next year (2013) the first phase of the Longhorn Reversal project will be completed and an initial 75 Mb/d of crude oil will begin flowing from Crane in the Permian Basin to Houston. Around the same time the Seaway pipeline from Cushing, OK to Houston will expand from 150 Mb/d to 400 Mb/d and the Double Eagle Pipeline in South Texas will start delivering 100 Mb/d of condensate to Corpus Christi. Today we look at how Magellan Midstream Partners has developed a leading position in crude storage and distribution in Cushing, Houston and Corpus Christi during the past two years.
On Friday (December 14, 2012) PBF Energy stock closed up at $27 two days after its initial IPO listing at $26. The company purchased 3 refineries with 0.5 MMb/d capacity during the past two years. PBF’s Midwest refinery has since profited handsomely from access to cheap US and Canadian crudes. PBF is also leading the way with a novel outsourcing approach to its supply and marketing arrangements. Today we complete our two part analysis of PBF’s refineries.
The second of two Department of Energy reports on the impact of LNG exports on the US economy was published last week by NERA. These reports focus on macroeconomic impacts that do little to guarantee the investment returns of the 15 projects awaiting approval. Today we dig into the pricing mechanisms that have to work for buyers and sellers before these terminals can lock in the throughput they need to justify their investment.
No, this is not the Whoville located south of Mt. Crumpit within the mountainous high range of Pontoos. And there is no Grinch in this Houville, at least during the 2012 Christmas season. Instead, this Houville is the center of an emerging Marcellus/Utica based NGL hub soon to take its place among the largest in North America.
Rapid change in the Gulf Coast crude supply picture is encouraging new infrastructure investment by crude and feedstock terminal companies anxious to capitalize from increased throughput volumes. A 3 MMb/d influx of new crude from pipelines in Texas and the Midwest over the next two years could easily end up causing indigestion at Houston refineries and that means opportunity for storage and blending operators. Today we continue our survey of Gulf Coast crude terminals by looking at Oiltanking Houston.
In Part 1 of the series (see Echo and the Blending Men) we looked at the new 6 MMBbl Enterprise ECHO crude terminal being touted as a delivery point if the NYMEX list a Houston crude futures contract. In Part 2 (see Nederland Crude Wonderland) we looked at the Energy Transfer Partners/Sunoco Logistics Nederland Terminal at Port Neches on the Texas/Louisiana border between Beaumont and Port Arthur 100 miles East of Houston. That terminal has been in place since the beginning of the twentieth century and now has 22 MMBbl of storage capacity.
Oiltanking Houston
This time we turn our attention to the Oiltanking Houston (OTH) Terminal on the Houston Ship Channel east of downtown Houston. The Ship Channel is the conduit for ocean going vessels between the Port of Houston, Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. One of the largest refinery and petrochemical complexes in the world runs along the Ship Channel. Don’t book a vacation there. We found a satellite map of the Ship Channel that includes the names of many of the plant facilities and terminals and we have attached a copy of it at the end of the blog (scroll down to the bottom of the page – if the download doesn’t work for you, let us know at info@rbnenergy.com and we will email a copy). We reproduce a smaller version of the map below with the OTH terminal marked with a black arrow. You can see that Oiltanking are right in the thick of the action.
PBF Energy Inc is a private company that bought three US refineries with 0.5 MMb/d capacity in the past two years and now plans to go public. Two of the refineries are on the East Coast where many larger players have abandoned the refining business. The third is in the Midwest sweet spot. Today we look at how the company plans to keep these refineries profitable for investors.
The surging production of condensate, or ultra-light crude oil, from America’s new shale-oil plays presents an opportunity that’s only just beginning to be recognized by much of the hydrocarbon market. Historically U.S. condensates have been a tiny sliver of that market, usually blended into crude. Now there is just too much of the stuff, particularly in places that aren’t yet ready to process it in large quantities. In this next installment of Fifty Shades of Condensates we explore the constrained domestic demand for “raw” condensates at U.S. Gulf refineries and petrochemical plants, and the promising international outlets for condensate in Canada and Asia. Bottom line: unless the unlikely happens and the U.S. lifts restrictions on exporting “raw” condensate, producers, traders and other players will either be selling it here at a discount, or spending money to transform it to buy a little optionality. It’s all about spending the least they can to access pockets of demand, and first movers are already enjoying an advantage.
A veritable flood of more than 3 MMb/d of new crude production from the US and Canada will come into the Houston region by 2015 via long awaited new pipeline infrastructure. The most immediate impact will be to back out light sweet crudes from the Gulf Coast region – as early as 2013. Today we assess how the changes will affect light sweet crude pricing.
The Ho-Ho reversal project coming online in early 2013 provides an important link between the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast markets. Ho-Ho should help to distribute 3 MMb/d of crude supplies arriving over the next two years in the Houston area to refineries throughout the region. All this new pipeline capacity is designed to end the Midwest supply glut. Today we discover how the new supply capacity could initially cause more problems than it solves.
Front month NYMEX natural gas prices reached a twelve-month high of $3.76/MMBtu this past Wednesday - falling back to $3.70/MMBtu yesterday. NYMEX prices have been on a rising trend ever since they dipped under $2/MMBtu back in April of this year but can they sustain that momentum? The most important factor in answering that question over the next 4 months will be the weather. More specifically, will there be a winter this year and how much gas is withdrawn from storage as a result of the cold weather. Yesterday the EIA announced the first natural gas storage withdrawal of this winter. Today we examine the start of the storage withdrawal season.
With all the new NGLs coming on, there has been periodic hand wringing about fractionator capacity. The good news is that there is a lot of capacity being built. So much so that it appears that the fractionators will be able to keep up with the producers and inbound pipes, at least most of the time. Notice however, that even though new NGL production from shale gas is growing most rapidly in the Northeast over 60 percent of the new capacity will be at Mont Belvieu or the Texas Gulf Coast region. Today we examine why Mont Belvieu remains the center of the NGL universe.
Shell is progressing toward early 2013 completion of the Houston, TX to Houma, LA (Ho-Ho) pipeline reversal. Bakken and Canadian Crude via Cushing, Eagle Ford crude from South Texas and Permian Basin crude from West Texas pipeline projects will all be showing up in the Houston area early next year via new or expanded pipeline projects. The Ho-Ho reversal will provide a missing link for these crudes to flow seamlessly to Louisiana Gulf Coast refineries. Today we describe the Ho-Ho project and its significance.