Since the world is scheduled to end tomorrow – at least according to the Mayans, it seems appropriate that we examine another looming catastrophe: the obliteration of existing North America natural gas market relationships and flow patterns, coming in 2016. The good news about the end of this natural gas world is that not only do we know it is coming, we can make a pretty good guess about how and when it will happen, and thus prepare for it. Today we’ll examine the market developments that will result in such dire consequences.
The Marcellus (and Utica) Change Everything
We introduced the possibility of natural gas flow reversals six months ago in The Marcellus Changes Everything. The punch line was in Part IV of that series where we talked about surplus Northeast production and where it might be headed. Since those blogs, Marcellus production is up by an astronomical 20% (1.6 Bcf/d growth from June 2012 to December 2012), and the picture is becoming clearer.
Graph#1 below provides some of that clarity. This is U.S. Natural Gas Production (total pipeline quality gas or residue gas, lower 48) from January 1, 2011 until today. These are Bentek numbers from their Cell Model that assesses daily supply and demand in ten different regions (Cells) across North America based on pipeline flow data. The red line is Marcellus production on the right scale, up from 3.9 Bcf/d on Jan. 1, 2011 to about 9.8 Bcf/d today. As recently as 2009, total Northeast production (legacy Appalachian production plus Marcellus) was only 2.3 Bcf/d. The green line is production from all other regions or the U.S., down from 58 Bcf/d in about this time last year to 54.8 Bcf/d today. So the Marcellus has basically been floating the boat for the rest of the country for the past year.
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