The U.S. natural gas market in the past two years has undergone massive change, from breaking storage records and crossing long-held thresholds to flipping flow patterns and pricing relationships on their heads. This November, the market crossed yet another milestone: the U.S. became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time ever on September 1, 2016. That lasted only a few days. But net exports resumed again starting November 1 and have continued through the month, almost without interruption, with pipeline deliveries to Mexico and to the first two liquefaction “trains” at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG terminal exceeding imports from Canada and LNG import terminals by an average 0.6 Bcf/d. Today, we look into what’s really driving this shift and what that tells us about the trend going forward.
The RBN NATGAS Haynesville is a weekly natural gas fundamentals analysis focused on supply, flow, and LNG-driven demand dynamics within the Haynesville basin.
In many ways, the U.S. flip from net gas importer to net gas exporter has been years in the making. A look at historical import and export data from our daily NATGAS Billboard report shows that net imports of natural gas have been in decline since at least 2010 (Figure 1). This was largely a function of the meteoric rise of domestic natural gas supply, particularly in the Northeast region, but increasing exports have contributed as well. As production from the Marcellus and Utica plays permeated the market, import volumes that traditionally served the Northeast––namely, LNG and Canadian imports––ramped down. Meanwhile, growing gas demand for industrial and power plants in Mexico pulled more and more supply across the border. The net effect was declining net imports. Seven years ago, the U.S. was net importing an average of more than 7.0 Bcf/d, with as much as 13.5 Bcf/d in the dead of winter when U.S. consumption is highest due to heating demand for homes and businesses, and dropping to less than 5.0 Bcf/d in the fall “shoulder months” when demand tends to be in the doldrums due to mild weather.
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About the song
“We’ve Only Just Begun” was written by Roger Nichols (music) and Paul Williams (lyrics). It appears as the first song on side one of The Carpenters' second studio album, Close to You. The song was originally written for a television commercial for Crocker Bank in California. Richard Carpenter had liked the song in the commercial and asked Paul Williams if a full-length version existed. Williams told a white lie and said “sure,” and got busy that day writing the rest of the song to present to Carpenter. Released as the third single from Close to You in August 1970, the song went to #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart and has been certified Gold by the Recording Industry Association of America. The song was inducted into the Grammy Hall of Fame for “recordings of lasting quality or historical significance” in 1998. Personnel on the record were: Karen Carpenter (lead, backing vocals), Richard Carpenter (piano, backing vocals, orchestration), Joe Osborn (bass), Hal Blaine (drums), Doug Strawn (clarinet), and Jim Horn, Bob Messenger (woodwinds),
Close to You was recorded during the spring of 1970 at A&M Studios in Hollywood, with Jack Daugherty producing. The album was released in August 1970 and went to #2 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart. It has been certified 2x Platinum by the RIAA. Three singles were released from the LP.
The Carpenters were an American vocal and instrumental duo consisting of siblings Karen and Richard Carpenter. The pair from Downey, CA, became top-selling artists in the soft rock, easy listening and adult contemporary markets. The duo started playing professionally in 1965 before being signed by Herb Alpert to his A&M Records label in 1969. They released 14 studio albums, two live albums, 16 compilation albums, three soundtrack albums, and 49 singles. They have sold over 100 million records worldwide. Karen Carpenter died in February 1983 at the age of 32, putting an end to one of the most successful pop duos in music history. Richard Carpenter continues to write and record. He has released three solo studio albums and four singles. He is an avid Mopar automobile fan and collector. He owns several letter-series Mopars from the fifties and sixties, and still owns the 1970 Plymouth Barracuda with a 440 six-pack engine that he bought new.
