After setting an annual record of 4.1 MMb/d in 2024, U.S. crude exports started off this year relatively strong, but cracks soon began to show, with volumes falling all the way to 3.2 MMb/d in July, one of the weakest months since 2023. But just when it seemed the momentum was gone, Gulf Coast exports rebounded to near 3.9 MMb/d in August and are topping 4.1 MMb/d so far in September. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how shifts in production, imports and refinery runs have impacted U.S. crude exports.
Canadian crude output is rising, requiring new export routes. As traditional pathways face constraints, the U.S. Rockies—especially the Guernsey, WY hub—are emerging as key corridors for moving Canadian heavy crude to downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.
On paper, the math behind the U.S. supply/demand crude oil balance is straightforward: Production + Imports = Refinery Demand + Exports. Figure 1 below shows the U.S. balance in 2024 (left side) versus what we’ve seen so far, on average, in 2025 (right side).
Figure 1. U.S. Crude Oil Supply/Demand Balance. Source: RBN
Every piece of this equation has been shifting under our feet in 2025, with a notable change in the export market — a critical factor in balancing trade. So what’s really going on and what contributes to these changes? Let’s take a tour through the pieces of the above supply/demand balance to see what’s changed since 2024.
Production
For the better part of a decade, U.S. shale was the growth story in global oil. But 2025 is showing us what happens when that engine starts to sputter. In 2024, U.S. production edged about 2% higher, averaging 13.2 MMb/d, with the Permian Basin continuing to shoulder most of the growth and offshore production from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM; see Take a Chance on Me) displacing some medium sour crude imports. By early 2025, production pushed up to around 13.5 MMb/d. But since then, things have leveled off. Efficiency gains that once delivered double-digit growth rates are harder to come by. Resource quality is slipping in some plays, capital discipline remains a priority for operators (see Here Comes the Rain Again), and service costs have stayed sticky. Despite continued increases in U.S. production the last few years, the rate of growth has been slowing as we near our 2025 year-to-date (YTD) average of 13.5 MMb/d.
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About the song
“Things Have Changed” was written, produced, and performed by Bob Dylan, and appears as the first track on the Wonder Boys (Music from the Motion Picture) soundtrack album. The song was recorded in July 1999, with Dylan’s touring band at the time backing him up. The session took place at Sony Studios in New York City. Two takes were recorded, with the second take being the one used on the album. According to Dylan drummer David Kemper, “In about five hours we learned the song, recorded it, and mixed it.” Personnel on the record were: Bob Dylan (vocals, piano), Charlie Sexton (guitar), Larry Campbell (guitar), Tony Garnier (bass) and David Kemper (drums). “Things Have Changed” was released as a single in May 2000 but failed to chart on the Billboard Hot 100. The song went on to win a Golden Globe Award for “Best Original Song” in 2000 and an Oscar at the 2001 Academy Awards, also for “Best Original Song.”
Wonder Boys (Music from the Motion Picture) was released in February 2000. “Things Have Changed” was the only single released from the album, which also contained three other Dylan songs. The album went to #155 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. The soundtrack album also had contributions from Neil Young, Leonard Cohen and Clarence Carter, among others.
Bob Dylan is an American singer, songwriter, musician, actor, author, poet, painter and illustrator. He has been a popular culture icon in a career that has spanned more than six decades. He is considered by many to be the greatest songwriter of all time. He has released 40 studio albums, 16 live albums, 31 compilation albums, 24 EPs, seven soundtrack albums and 102 singles, and has sold more than 125 million records worldwide. He is a member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and the Songwriters Hall of Fame and is a recipient of Kennedy Center Honors, a Presidential Medal of Freedom, a Polar Music Prize, France’s Legion d’Honneur, and a Nobel Prize in Literature. Dylan is also known for his paintings, drawings and books. His most recent book, “The Philosophy of Modern Song,” contains essays on 66 songs by artists who have influenced him. Dylan continues to record and tour and performed at the 40th annual Farm Aid benefit in Minnesota in September. He will be on tour in Europe in October and November.
