So far for June 2025, the frac spread has averaged $3.08/MMBtu—a 7% decline from May 2025 and a 25% drop compared to the same period last year. This marks the lowest point for the frac spread over the past 12 months.

Last week, natural gas production in the Permian Basin ranged from 20.7 Bcf/d to 20.79 Bcf/d, averaging 20.76 Bcf/d, down 0.22 Bcf/d, with lower supply receipts on El Paso Pipeline.

Over the past three months, spot-market prices at Henry Hub and Permian Waha have been steadily converging. As shown in the left graph below, Waha March gas traded at a mere $0.08/MMBtu (outright price), while Henry Hub fetched $4.12/MMBtu—creating a staggering basis spread of $4.04/MMBtu.

US oil and gas rig count declined for the seventh consecutive week, falling to 555 for the week ending June 13 according to Baker Hughes data. Rigs declined week-on-week in the Permian (-2), Anadarko (-1) and All Other (-1), while no basins posted gains.

Re-exports of Canadian heavy crude oil are estimated to have been 35 Mb/d in May 2025 (rightmost stacked columns in chart below), a drop of 121 Mb/d from April, 64 Mb/d less than a year ago, and an eight-month low based on tanker data compiled by Bloomberg and historical export data released by t