A blast of Arctic air plunges the Midwest and Northeast into deep freeze. Already-low propane inventories result in supply shortages in local markets. Propane transport trucks move product hundreds of miles from storage hubs to replenish regional terminals as markets scramble to meet surging propane demand. Are we talking about the nightmarish polar vortex winter of 2013-14, when regional propane inventories were sucked down dangerously low and Conway, KS, propane prices skyrocketed to almost $5.00/gal? No. We are talking about now. This is a description of what is happening today in U.S. propane country –– that belt of northern states that depend heavily on propane for heating. But this is not 2013-14. Things have changed. So in today’s blog we’ll explore how the latest polar vortex could be quite different than that weather-driven crisis seven years ago.
We’ve been particularly interested in the propane market this winter, starting with Now You See It, where we warned of the possibility of a coming propane price squeeze. The big issue was exports, which were running at all-time highs and had the potential to deplete inventories at record rates. We worried that average days-supply, when calculated using both domestic demand and exports, had dropped to a five-year low, and that the market could get very tight. By January, as we detailed in Big Panama With A Purple Hat Band, that was just how things were playing out, with markets further complicated by long delays at the Panama Canal and, as a consequence, skyrocketing shipping rates. Then, a couple of weeks ago in It's All Over Now, we looked at how frigid weather in Asia had pulled even more U.S. propane into export markets, and how that resulted in a Mont Belvieu price spike up to 95 cents/gallon (c/gal), and over a dollar per gallon at the Conway hub in Kansas. We wrapped up that blog by stating the blindingly obvious: “The short term is all in the hands of Mother Nature.”
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Well, it didn’t take long for Mother Nature to get serious. Over the past few days, a blast of Arctic air that weather forecasters are calling either a big dip in the jet stream or, even worse, a polar vortex air mass, is sweeping across the Midwest and Northeast, and is expected to plunge temperatures down to their lowest levels so far for this winter. The National Weather Service is looking at nighttime lows in the double digits below zero in some parts of the U.S.’s northern tier all this week, with frigid weather covering almost half the U.S., as shown in Figure 1.
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About the song
“Cold As Ice” was written by Lou Gramm and Mick Jones and appears as the second song on Foreigner’s debut album, Foreigner. Released as a single in July 1977, the song went to #6 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart. Personnel on the record were: Lou Gramm (lead vocals), Mick Jones (lead guitar, piano, backing vocals), Ian McDonald (rhythm guitar, mellotron, backing vocals), Al Greenwood (organ, synthesizer), Ed Gagliardi (bass, backing vocals), Dennis Elliott (drums), and Ian Lloyd (backing vocals).
Foreigner was the self-titled debut album by the British-American band of the same name. It was recorded in November 1976 at The Hit Factory and Atlantic Recording Studios in New York City, with John Sinclair, Gary Lyons, Mick Jones and Ian McDonald producing. Released in March 1977, the album went to #4 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. It has been certified 5X Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Three singles were released from the LP.
Foreigner is a British-American rock band formed in New York City in 1976 by Brits Mick Jones and Ian McDonald, with New Yorker Lou Gramm. Jones had previously been in Spooky Tooth, and McDonald had been a member of King Crimson. They recruited Americans Al Greenwood, Ed Gagliardi and Dennis Elliot to complete the band. Jones came up with the name Foreigner to reflect the British-American connection. They have released nine studio albums, seven live albums, 20 compilation albums, and 47 singles, and have sold over 50 million records worldwide. Thirty-eight members have passed through the ranks of the band since its inception. Original member Mick Jones, along with ex-Dokken bassist Jeff PIlson, ex-Hurricane singer Kelly Hanson, and four other musicians still tour as Foreigner. They are slated to start a North American tour in March 2024.
