April 19, 2022 – S&P Global
NYMEX gas futures close near $8/MMBtu on storage, weather worries
By: Bill Holland
"Futures prices correlate well with the storage surplus/deficit vs. last year and the 5-year average," RBN Energy LLC analyst and Managing Editor Sheetal Nasta said April 15 by email as prices continued to climb. "Right now, of course, we have an expanding deficit and it's looking like the deficit could linger for a while, given the rates of power burn and LNG feedgas deliveries we're seeing." …
Read the full article here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/nymex-gas-futures-close-near-8-mmbtu-on-storage-weather-worries-69862223
… RBN's Nasta said that gas is still volatile and the supply-demand balance can flip with weather or producers breaking out more rigs and adding wells. "The surplus/deficit can flip pretty quickly too if bearish conditions materialize. At these prices, if production responds more than expected, or if we get a very mild summer, then there's still some possibility we end up with a surplus by the end of the year."
As suddenly as the futures price shot to $8/MMBtu, they head sharply south in March 2023. "In part, this may reflect a market that is hyper-focused on the near-term bullishness and in wait-and-see mode beyond that," Nasta wrote.
