NGI - Natural Gas Prices Projected to Jump in 2021 on Strong Export Demand, Moderate Production

January 7, 2021 – Natural Gas Intelligence

Natural Gas Prices Projected to Jump in 2021 on Strong Export Demand, Moderate Production

By Kevin Dobbs

In the important Permian Basin, RBN Energy analyst Jason Ferguson said production has recovered to 11.5-12.0 Bcf/d, on par with 2019. “I see us growing some this year,” he said, to around 12.5 Bcf/d by late 2021. However, Ferguson does not expect Permian output to reach 13.0 Bcf/d until next year.

National production levels hung around 90 Bcf in November and December – near six-month highs, following cuts tied to both the coronavirus and a record hurricane season that forced temporary shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico several times over the summer and fall.

Overall, Wood Mackenzie and RBN analysts say output has recovered but it is expected to either hold stable or gradually increase over the course of this year. 

U.S. dry natural gas production peaked at 97.0 Bcf/d in December 2019, according to EIA. Output remained high early in 2020 but tapered off quickly after the pandemic took hold in March. For all of 2020, EIA estimated production averaged 90.9 Bcf/d in 2020, down from an average of 93.1 Bcf/d in 2019.

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