August 19, 2021 – Natural Gas Intelligence
Natural Gas Forward Prices Slide Amid Looser Balances, but Appalachian Basis Strengthens
By: Jeremiah Shelor
When viewed in terms of year/year change, balances in the Appalachia region have tightened this month compared to earlier in the summer, according to a research note published Wednesday by RBN Energy LLC.
“Month-to-date, the supply-demand balance estimates indicate that the market is much less bearish versus last year in August than it was in July or previous months,” RBN analysts said in a report to clients on Appalachian fundamentals. “In July, the market carried a 2.5 Bcf/d surplus versus July 2020. In August to date, that year-on-year surplus has narrowed to 0.9 Bcf/d, which is also the tightest balance we’ve had so far this injection season.”
The RBN analysts pointed to production and power burn as contributing factors to the tighter balances. The firm estimated 34.3 Bcf/d of production month-to-date, versus 34 Bcf/d in July, with July 2020 shut-ins resulting in a narrower year/year supply increase so far this month.
This comes as regional demand from power, residential/commercial, industrial and Cove Point liquefied natural gas exports was flat year/year through the first 17 days of August; July demand trailed year-ago levels by 1.8 Bcf/d, according to RBN estimates.
Read the full article here: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-forward-prices-slide-amid-looser-balances-but-appalachian-basis-strengthens/
