January 21, 2016 - Real Money
Cramer: Nobody Knows Anything When It Comes to the Price of Oil
By: Jim Cramer
Just for laughs I went back to read articles about oil written this time last year, when oil was in the high $40s.
The talk back then was almost all about the shape of the letter. Were we going to have a "V" recovery, which would put oil on a course back to $100, where it was before the crash began in June 2014. Or would it be a more of a meandering back, via a "U", where it might not be any higher than $70 a year later, as in now.
I could not find anyone who thought that oil would break down hard from those levels, and even the biggest bears now, the people from Goldman Sachs -- who accurately predicted that oil was going much lower (price target $20) when oil was in the $40s last fall -- were predicting a slow return to higher prices by the end of 2015.
Maybe, though, we shouldn't be so shocked. Last night, Rusty Braziel, author of the best-selling The Domino Effect, and the head of RBN Energy, sent me a picture of a similar spike and crash that occurred in the 1980s: namely the January to March pummeling in 1986.
It's a little eerie familiar. Oil was at $26.53 on Jan. 6, 1986, just where it traded to yesterday. Less than three months later, on March 31, 1986, oil traded down to $10.25.
Read the full article here: http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/01/21/2016/cramer-nobody-knows-anything-when-it-comes-price-oil
