

Before data centers were the hot topic everywhere, Virginia was already rolling out the red carpet and it seemed that tech firms were constructing facilities as fast as humanly possible, drawn by the state’s robust fiber-optic network and low power prices. But while other states are racing to catch up, Virginia may be hitting the brakes. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what makes Virginia so “sweet” for data center developers, their impact on the state, and efforts by some to slow progress.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
US oil and gas rig count climbed to 549 rigs for the week ending September 26, an increase of seven rigs vs. a week ago and the largest gain since July according to Baker Hughes data.
Low-carbon steel that utilizes green hydrogen in the production process will be used in Microsoft data centers under an agreement announced this week with Swedish steelmaker Stegra.
In early December, natural gas production in the Permian has been averaging a record 14.2 Bcf/d, a gain of 1 Bcf/d in only six months. That rapid pace of growth is putting pressure on every aspect of midstream infrastructure — gas gathering systems, processing plants, and takeaway pipelines — and resulting in a variety of efforts aimed at ensuring there will be sufficient capacity in place to support the increasing gas volumes being produced. New gas-gathering mileage is being added, some new processing plants are being built, and at least a couple of new large-diameter pipelines from the Permian to the Gulf Coast are being considered. However, reflecting the midstream sector’s financial discipline, there’s also a big push to make fuller use of existing assets, in some cases by relocating processing plants, compressors, and other assets to where they are needed most. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the latest gas-related infrastructure developments in the Permian’s Midland and Delaware basins.
There’s been a lot of talk lately about “green” and “blue” hydrogen becoming increasingly important players in the world’s lower-carbon energy future. Green and blue ammonia too, given that ammonia, with its high hydrogen content, is an efficient “carrier” of hydrogen when it needs to be delivered by ship, railcar, or truck. Also, ammonia itself — like hydrogen — can be used to power fuel cells and ammonia-combustion technology is being developed to use fuel ammonia at power plants. But for these low- or zero-carbon energy products to be adopted at a global scale, new infrastructure will need to be built, not only to enable their production and consumption but to transport them to where they’ll be consumed. Enter the just-finished ammonia terminal that Royal Vopak and Moda Midstream jointly developed at a prime site along the Houston Ship Channel. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the greenfield facility and its prospective role as a major import/export hub for ammonia.
It has been an epic year for U.S. LNG. After COVID-19 and the subsequent global market crash brought LNG development to a standstill and shut-in production from existing terminals in 2020, this year has seen global prices repeatedly smash previous record highs, driving existing terminals to operate at peak levels and renewing interest in new LNG buildout. U.S. feedgas demand and LNG production will close out the year at all-time highs, but with just a few weeks left it looks like 2021 will be the first year since 2017 that no new LNG terminals will achieve a positive final investment decision. But that’s driven more by the tailwinds of 2020 — the back half of 2021 has seen a tremendous amount of commercial activity in the LNG sector. More than 21 million metric tons per annum of medium- and long-term capacity from planned LNG projects has been sold this year, creating enough forward momentum for multiple projects to move toward FID in 2022. We cover all the latest developments in our LNG Voyager Quarterly report, and in today’s RBN blog we take a look at some of the recent LNG deals and what they tell us about the future of North American LNG.
Trans Mountain Pipeline, the only pipeline that connects crude oil production areas in Alberta to Canada’s West Coast and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, has started to resume operations after a three-week shutdown. The pipeline closure — the longest in TMP’s 68-year history — began November 14 after major flooding exposed portions of the 300-Mb/d conduit, which also carries some refined products. Fortunately, Trans Mountain did not suffer any severe damage, breaks, or spills, and its operators were able to initiate a phased restart on December 5 at reduced pressures. Full service is expected to be restored soon. So what happens when a primary source of crude oil to five refineries — four in Washington state and one in British Columbia — is removed from service with little notice? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the impacts.
Market sentiment toward oil and gas companies, particularly producers and midstreamers, has been increasingly negative since the oil price crash in late 2014, driven by a mix of shorter-term concerns like price volatility and corporate debt and longer-term worries like the environment and an impending energy transition. One company that has found it especially difficult to regain investor confidence is midstream giant Kinder Morgan Inc., whose late-2015 decision to slash its dividend got an ice-cold reception from shareholders and sent the company’s stock price sharply lower. Over the past six years, KMI has been largely successful in its efforts to stabilize its balance sheet, internally fund growth, and gradually restore its dividend, but its current share price remains close to its late-2015 low and barely one-third its early-2015 high. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Spotlight report, which analyzes KMI’s current portfolio and performance and discusses in detail the company’s new strategic initiatives to restore investor confidence.
International shipowners need to significantly reduce their carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030 and will come under pressure to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Given that the industry currently depends almost entirely on fossil fuels for ship propulsion — and that every zero- or near-zero-carbon alternative faces serious headwinds — it won’t be an easy or low-cost transition. One pathway would be expanding the use of LNG as a bunker fuel in the near term and then shifting to alternatives like bio-LNG and synthetic LNG as they become more commercially available and economic. Another would be to use “green” or “blue” hydrogen, ammonia, or methanol. But there are challenges to each, not the least of which are the small volumes of non-traditional fuels being produced — and their high cost — and the need for new infrastructure both to produce and distribute them, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.
It’s no secret to anybody paying attention to U.S. natural gas markets that Appalachia has long been bedeviled by midstream constraints, often leading to deep gas price discounts. There have been brief respites when new capacity has come online, allowing more gas to flow out, but if you've been reading our blogs and natural gas reports lately, you know we've been sounding the alarm about the growing specter of constraints reemerging. Across the country, the boom in pipeline reversals, greenfield projects, and pipeline expansions that characterized much of the 2010s is pretty much over, with just a couple of approved expansions left, and it’s gotten much harder for projects offering additional capacity to gain traction, especially in the Northeast. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the big questions facing the region: how fast will Appalachian gas production grow, how much running room do producers have left, and what are the implications of midstream constraints for forecast supply growth?
Late last month, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) ruled against Enbridge’s proposal to convert as much as 90% of the capacity on its multi-pipeline, 3-MMb/d Mainline crude oil system to long-term contracts. The CER’s action leaves in place the Mainline’s current capacity-allocation process, under which every barrel-per-day of the pipeline system’s capacity is open to all shipping customers on a month-to-month basis. Although the rejection of Enbridge’s proposal is unlikely to change the volume of Western Canadian crude oil flowing on the Mainline over the next few months, the longer-term outlook for Mainline flows is less certain given that other, competing pipeline capacity out of Alberta will be coming into service by late 2022 or early 2023. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the decision to reject long-term contracting and what might be the next steps for Enbridge.
Carbon dioxide is not the most potent of the greenhouse gases, but it is by far the most prevalent, which makes it a primary focus of efforts to protect the planet. And while a lot of attention is being paid to ways to reduce CO2 emissions and to capture those that are produced, it’s important to remember one key fact: There’s strong demand for CO2 for a variety of commercial uses, from enhanced oil recovery and fertilizers to industrial processes and beverage production. In other words, CO2 has real value to certain parts of the global economy and capturing CO2 for sale to these customers must be factored into the decarbonization equation. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the industrial CO2 value chain.
There’s been a slew of high-profile shipments of “carbon-neutral LNG” the past few months, typically involving the use of carbon credits to offset, ton-for-ton, the carbon dioxide equivalent of greenhouse gases released during the production, piping, and liquefaction of natural gas, the shipping of LNG, and often the regasification and ultimate consumption of the gas too. The problem is, there is no widely agreed-to definition for carbon neutral, nor is there a consensus on how to quantify and validate the GHG “footprint” of a specific LNG cargo. Now, an international group representing the world’s LNG importers has established a framework for “GHG-neutral LNG” that it hopes will gain widespread acceptance. Elements of the proposal are sure to be controversial, however, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.
The Permian has been a leader in domestic oil and gas production for decades but the Shale Revolution made it a global superstar. In the past few years, thousands of miles of new crude oil, associated gas, and produced-water gathering systems have been installed in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, as have dozens of new gas processing plants and a number of new takeaway pipelines for oil, gas, and NGLs. Lately, there has also been a lot of consolidation among Permian midstream companies, mostly with the aims of increasing scale, improving reliability, and directing more hydrocarbons through the combined companies’ gathering, processing, and takeaway assets. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our review of recent, major pipeline-company combinations in the Permian and the benefits participants expect to realize from them.
If there was ever a year that proves NGLs march to the beat of a different drummer, 2021 was it. Compared to pre-pandemic volumes, production is up, not down. It’s the same story for exports. Price behavior has been even more extraordinary. We’ve seen startling counter-seasonal price swings in propane and butane markets. Ethane has been dancing to the tune of volatile natural gas prices. The wackiness has even extended to natural gasoline, which this summer enjoyed seven weeks as the preferred feedstock for U.S. flexible steam crackers. Heck, it’s not even winter yet. And 2022 is likely to be every bit as chaotic. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a blog series discussing recent developments in NGL markets and take a look at what lies ahead.
Determining whether to approve plans for interstate natural gas pipeline projects has never been an easy task for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. There are so many things to consider, chief among them the need for the pipeline, impacts on the environment and landowners along the route, and what it all means for gas customers. But as complicated as the decision-making process may be, at least pipeline developers, gas producers, and customers knew that once a new pipeline was approved by FERC, permitted, built, and put into service that the matter was closed — that is, the pipeline was here to stay. Now, in the wake of a groundbreaking court ruling on a new gas pipeline near St. Louis, things are not so certain. As it turns out, we’re intimately familiar with the matter, having just made the case that the 65-mile Spire STL Pipeline is an important addition to the regional pipeline network that provides supply diversity, improved reliability, and access to lower-cost gas. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the evolution of FERC regulation of gas pipelines and the new uncertainty that all affected parties face.
These are troubled times, as the song says, caught between confusion and pain. Following the COVID trauma of 2020, oil, gas, and NGL markets are now coping with uncertainty of medium- and long-term prospects in light of energy transition rhetoric. Will we continue to see sufficient investment in the hydrocarbon-based supplies that the world needs today, or will resources be increasingly diverted toward renewable energy technologies and wider ESG goals? Finding a way to satisfy the global appetite and fuel continued recovery while planning for the future was a core theme for RBN’s Fall 2021 School of Energy: Hydrocarbon Markets in a Decarbonizing World. In today’s advertorial RBN blog, we lay out some key findings and highlights from this fall’s virtual conference.
It has been a chaotic couple of years for North American LNG and the global gas market. In a short time, international gas markets went from oppressively oversupplied balances, high storage inventories, and historically low prices for much of 2020 to reckoning with panic-inducing supply shortages, low inventories, and multi-year or all-time high prices in the biggest LNG-consuming regions. The resulting whiplash has transformed key aspects of the LNG market, making a profound impact on the way existing LNG terminals operate, how projects secure funding and capacity commitments, and what offtakers expect for the next generation of LNG capacity buildout. The tight market appears to have settled the question of whether more export capacity is needed, at least for now, but the market’s sharp U-turn has also put potential offtakers on edge and underscored the need for contractual flexibility. Additionally, pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is higher than ever, and LNG offtakers are increasingly demanding greener solutions to address government regulations and public concerns. This convergence of factors has put the LNG market at a crossroads. Taking all of the lessons learned from the last two years and before, the industry must now forge a new path forward. In the encore edition of today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our recent Drill Down report, looking at the major trends that will define the North American LNG market in the coming years.