

More than 70 new data centers are under development in Virginia, which is already the world’s leading hub for the massive, high-tech facilities. But given the rapid pace of the buildout and the challenges that come with it, it’s probably no surprise that not everyone in the Old Dominion State is as enthusiastic about data centers as they once were. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at some of the biggest data centers in the works and discuss their path forward.
Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.
TotalEnergies is set to acquire a 49% stake in natural gas-producing assets operated by Continental Resources in the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma, strengthening its foothold in the U.S. natural gas market.
The EIA reported total U.S. propane/propylene inventories had a build of 3.5 MMbbl for the week ended September 26, which was more than industry expectations for an increase of 1.7 MMbbl and the average build for the week of 1.5 MMbbl. Total U.S.
Sometimes learning is about getting your mind changed. Over the past couple of days at Bentek’s Benposium conference in Houston there were a lot of presentations and powerpoint slides looking at all sides of the LNG export issue. I’m still not convinced that we’ll see more than one terminal built in the U.S. But I was convinced of three things: (a) there is a need for LNG exports to balance oversupply in the natural gas market, (b) pricing differentials support the economics necessary to build these facilities, and (c) if even a couple of the liquefaction plants and terminals are built, it will have a big impact on the natural gas market in North America.
Yesterday was Day#2 of Benposium, the annual Bentek conference being held at the Houstonian hotel in Houston. It was another day when I could attend the sessions as a participant, which is considerably harder work than it sounds. Between Tuesday and Wednesday there were seven outside speakers and 15 breakout sessions with Bentek analysts, each repeated twice over the two days. They went deep into natural gas, crude oil and NGL markets. After 48 hours of Benpo 2012, my brain is full. And there is one more day to go.
Rather than getting into the gory details of all these presentations, I thought it would be a good idea to take a page out of Cramer (that would be Cramer's Mad Money, not Cosmo Kramer) and do a lightning round on all of the major themes I heard across the two days.
Yesterday was Day#1 of the annual Bentek energy analytics conference called Benposium, being held at the Houstonian hotel in Houston. I’m not speaking until Thursday so today was an opportunity to hang out and listen to some of the other presenters. The first two speakers focused on one of the most important issues being addressed at the conference – natural gas demand. Audrea Hill, Senior Director Hedging, PCS Nitrogen (unit of Potash Corporation) talked about the ammonia market, while Jim Jordan, President, Jordan and Associates (and RBN Energy contributor) examined the markets for Methanol. Both of these industrial segments are experiencing a rebirth of domestic demand for natural gas as a feedstock.
Last Thursday we looked at one side of the great 2012-18 ethane debate. Will we make too much of the stuff? Or not? Will the petrochemical industry have the capacity to chew up rapidly increasing ethane production. Or could producers and processors churn out so much ethane that the price will be forced down to fuel value (a price equivalent too natural gas), resulting in massive ethane rejection at gas processing plants.
Move over old dog ‘cause a new dog’s moving in. That dog would be crude oil from North America producers -- mostly light-sweet crude from the Bakken – moving by rail to Albany and on to other points east. Not only is it a good market for Bakken oil, it might just be the ticket out of financial meltdown for East Coast refiners.
This is how midstreamers at the Platts conference talk about the Eagle Ford? Sounds more like a description of my wife’s Havanese after a bath than a description than one of the most prolific NGL plays on the continent. But these weren’t really complaints. It was just midstreamers pointing out some of the challenges of life in the Eagle Ford NGL business, circa 2012. And of course, these are certainly white collar problems. This is another blog based on presentations at the Platts Midstream conference. Today we’ll look at each of the three issues from the title and pick a couple of examples of solutions and strategies being used by players in the South Texas area.
For the past two days I’ve attended the 5th Annual Platts Midstream Development Conference at the JW Marriott in Houston. After a while you start to get a little tired of phrases like ‘astronomical growth’, ‘unprecedented opportunities’, and ‘game changing technology’. There was a steady stream of midstream investment projects in every sector of the oil, gas and NGL markets in the U.S. And there were few disagreements about the trajectory of production or the need for new infrastructure to get the production to market. That is, except for one issue. And that issue was ethane. As documented here on several occasions (most recently this week in Monitor Monitor and Rock Bottom), ethane production has increased dramatically over the past year and today ethane prices in both Conway and Mont Belvieu are depressed (yesterday 43.4cnts/gal for MB purity and 12.4cnts/gal for Conway E-P). But the real question is the next five to six years. Will petrochemical producers add enough ethane capacity each year to absorb the expected growth in ethane production, or will producers outrun the petchems and drive prices to fuel value for an extended period of time?
Yesterday I attended and was a speaker at the 5th Annual Platts Midstream Development Conference at the JW Marriott in Houston. The conference continues through noon on Wednesday. There were a number of excellent presentations throughout the day that we will summarize here during this week. We’ll start with a particularly interesting review of the Plains All American strategy for the Bakken, presented by Jim Cantwell, President, Plains Gas Solutions.
Last Friday the price for ethane in E-P mix in Conway dropped to 4.5 cnts/gal for a period of time. According to OPIS, the price averaged 7.25 cnts/gal for the day. Those numbers are all-time low prices for the product, and rock bottom by anyone’s definition. As we discussed here in Monday’s post titled Monitor-Monitor on the Wall, Who’s the Cheapest Hydrocarbon of All, these are prices at the Conway Hub. Most NGLs coming into Conway incur a transportation fee to get there and a fractionation fee to convert mixed NGLs into salable products. That deduct can be between 6 and 12 cents per gallon. Let’s say the deduct is 10 cnts/gal. Subtract that from 7.5 and by my math that’s negative 2.5 cnts/gal. It’s hard to make money selling at negative prices. Fortunately producers and natural gas processors are still making good money churning out propane, butanes and natural gasoline.
The cheapest hydrocarbon? Natural gas you say? Not even close. It is ethane (in E-P mix) situated in suburban Conway, Kansas. We’ve looked at cheap Conway ethane before, but never like this. Because it has never been like this. Even OPIS, which has been tracking NGL prices since Methuselah was a young whipper-snapper has not seen this level of prices.
For the past two days we’ve slogged through the math of converting natural gas pipelines to crude oil service. Whether or not you spent the time to follow the details, you might have wondered – What’s the point? Some pipelines are candidates for conversion, some are not – right? It just depends on the classic real estate rule --- location-location-location. Well there may be more to it than that. A lot more. What if I told you that a typical liquids pipeline can generate four times the revenue of a gas pipeline of equivalent diameter and length. The crude pipe can move four times the energy. And clearly, four times the energy and four times the revenue leads to four times the fun of running and operating a pipeline. Right now a lot of gas pipelines are not having much fun. On the other hand, it is party time at most crude oil pipelines. Bust out the red solo cups. Let’s figure out just how much fun they are having.
Yesterday in Part 1 of this blog series on pipeline conversions we talked about Energy Transfer’s interest in switching Texoma and other pipelines from gas to crude service. That development and the proposed conversion of Kinder Morgan Interstate Gas Pipeline system into the Pony Express Crude oil pipeline got us to thinking about the economics of these conversions and the magnitude of opportunities to do more of them.
On Monday, Energy Transfer kept the deals coming with the $5.3 billion acquisition of Sunoco. This deal certainly launches ETP into the really big leagues, and makes it one of the most diversified players around. And if you read the fine print, they plan to get more diversified by converting gas lines into crude oil lines. The poster child is good ole Texoma pipeline, which was a crude pipe for years before it was converted sometime in the 80s to move natural gas. ETP CEO Kelcy Warren says he has his eye on a few other gas pipeline candidates for conversion. And don’t forget. Up in the Guernsey, WY area Kinder Morgan is converting 500 miles of the Kinder Morgan Interstate Gas Pipeline system into the Pony Express Crude oil pipeline. Hmm. Gas production is going strong in wet gas plays like western edge Marcellus and Eagle Ford, while at the same time production is declining in the dry gas plays like Haynesville. It seems like the big crude oil plays like Bakken, Permian, Eagle Ford, etc. all need more pipelines. Given the dislocation in gas production growth and the opportunities in crude markets, it certainly makes sense that conversion of pipelines should be high on the priority list for any self-respecting pipeliner.
Contributor Kyle Cooper breaks down the most significant developments in last week’s natural gas market.
At the recent Platts Oil and Gas Conference in Denver, the reoccurring theme was outbound capacity constraint. The area needs a lot more crude oil pipelines and rail terminals to mitigate regional oil price crashes (see Bakken’ and a Rollin’ at Clearbook and Guernsey). The natural gas situation is worse, with more than one-third of natural gas on the North Dakota side of the Bakken being flared. The region needs more gas gathering systems and more takeaway capacity.