The 2013 Hydrocarbon Top 40 RBN Blogs – Plus: The Big Index

On this, the last day of 2013 we thought it would be interesting to look back at the 250 or so RBN blogs posted this year to see which ones had the highest hit rates.  When a blog article gets a lot of hits – some up to 17,000 or more – it tells you something about what is going on in the market.  So like we did last year, we’ll take a page out of Casey Kasem’s playbook to look back at the top blogs of 2013 based on numbers of website hits.  

This year the hot topics have been crude-by-rail, condensates, diluent, ethane rejection, and natural gas production economics. What do these topics have in common?  They are all undergoing significant changes; they involve big investment dollars; and the information about what is going on in these areas is spotty at best.  That makes them ideal themes for the RBN blogosphere.

The table below lists the 10 top RBN blogs of 2013.  Granted it is not the top 40 like we said in the title.  That’s just too many for a year-end blog.  But if you really want to see a list of all of the year’s blogs we have provided a searchable index, organized by topic.  We call it the Big Index.  It is not very high tech – just an Excel spreadsheet.  But it will help you find subject areas that we have covered that our search box might not pick up.  It is organized in commodity groupings – crude oil, natural gas, NGLs and other. To download the spreadsheet, go to the bottom of this blog. (Note that you must be logged on to the site as a registered RBN member to download the spreadsheet.)

Here are the top 10 blogs of 2013 (in reverse order):

#10 – 8/19/13 – Crude Oil: Go Your Own Way – Offloading Heavy Canadian Crude on the Gulf Coast

Examines the major build out of heavy crude oil loading terminals in Canada and receipt terminals in the Gulf; Considers the possibility that Canadian rail shipments will be able to compete successfully with pipeline alternatives.

#9 – 3/19/2013 – Crude Oil: Crude Loves Rock’n’Rail – Heat It! Bitumen Part 2

Reviews heavy crude rail loading facilities that are either operating or planned in the heavy oil production region of Western Canada.  Considers long term implications of crude-by-rail on pipeline throughput and total supply.   

#8 – 9/19/2013 – Natural Gas: The Truth is Out There – Production Economics Spreadsheet Model

Provides a spreadsheet model of production economics based on drilling/completion costs, operating expenses, production results and other parameters establishing producer rates of return.

#7 – 8/22/2013 – Natural Gas: The Truth is Out There - Unconventional Production Economics - Part 1

Part 1 of a series describing the technology and economics behind the shale drilling boom.  Focus is on drilling technologies.

#6 – 1/22/2013 – Crude Oil: It’s a Kinder Magic - The Eagle Ford Canada Diluent Trail

Kinder Morgan is building out a comprehensive system to move condensates – especially Eagle Ford condensate into the Gulf Coast and Canadian diluent markets.

#5 - 2/5/2013 - Crude Oil:  Crude Loves Rocking Rail – The Year of the Tank Car

Both refineries and pipeline companies are investing in rail terminals.  Producers are signing up to move landlocked crudes by rail to coastal destinations in search of higher prices.  Rail car manufacturers are struggling to meet a backlog of orders.  Crude-by-rail has arrived

#4 – 1/6/2013 – NGLs: The Ethane Asylum: Big Time Ethane Rejection in the Shale Gas World

The U.S. ethane market is experiencing across the board, knock-out-the-ethane style rejection, unlike anything we’ve seen in the past five years.  How will this rejection impact gas processing margins and natural gas pipeline quality issues?

#3 – 2/20/2013 - Crude Oil: Don’t Let Your Crude Oils Grow Up to be Condensates - Eagle Ford

(a) Margins for Eagle Ford condensate producers are likely to be lower than they would be if more of their production was crude. (b) All the production from the Eagle Ford that makes its way to Gulf Coast refineries will be very light and will challenge refineries equipped to handle heavier crudes or even “conventional” light sweet crudes.

#2 – 2/11/2013 – Crude Oil: Crude Loves Rocking Rail – The Bakken Terminals

Detailed survey of rail loading terminals in the Bakken.  Explores the impact of new terminals on crude markets and pipeline throughput.

And the #1 blog of the year is…….

#1 – 5/20/2013 – NGLs & Crude:  Utica Oil or Bust? A Wet Gas Play With Plenty of Condensate

Considered the implications that the majority of Utica crude is really condensate and assessed projections of a surge of NGL/ condensate production from the play.   We’ve since posted a number of other blogs reviewing Utica condensate production and infrastructure developments in a series titled Whole Lotta Splittin’ Going On.  In Part 1 of this series we covered the expected surge in condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and to a lesser extent crude oil production from the Utica shale in the next year (2014) as a result of new infrastructure coming online. In Part 2 we looked at MPLX’s (Marathon’s) longer term Utica transportation strategy to provide third party shippers with options to move liquids outside the region. In Part 3 we reviewed infrastructure proposals from Unity Pipeline Company and Kinder Morgan to move condensate and natural gasoline to Western Canada from the Utica as a diluent for blending with heavy bitumen crude to enable the latter to flow in pipelines. Part 4 covered existing and planned infrastructure plans by Crosstex and UEO to handle condensates and natural gasoline output in the Utica.  Finally Part 5 examined MarkWest and Blue Racer plans to capture and deliver condensate range materials to market from Utica shale production.

Deeper Meaning from the Hit Parade

When you look at the blogs that have had the most hits, it is important to interpret the results with a grain of salt.  First, blogs posted early in the year generally have more hits than those at the end of the year, since there are a lot of folks that find a blog weeks or months after it was posted.  Second, the 2013 sample is skewed towards crude oil, since we did more crude oil blogs than we did on natural gas and NGLs.  

But when we sort through all the numbers and then compare the blogosphere with consulting projects RBN worked on in 2013 (also an indication of market direction), it is clear that there is a common theme.  This year that theme has been surplus.  In 2013 the market came to terms that natural gas, NGLs and some grades of crude oil would be oversupplied for many years to come.  Some markets being more oversupplied than others.  But during the year the markets started a shift, so that as we enter 2014 the theme has become demand.  Where is all this stuff going to go?    Who is going to benefit from the bounty of U.S. hydrocarbon production?  Our first blog of the New Year on January 2nd will explore this thesis in The Top Ten Energy Prognostications for 2014 – Year of the Horse.

Happy New Year!

We hope this blog and the 2013 Big Index will be useful to you.  We are always open to suggestions so if you have ideas for topics we should cover, please fire them off to [email protected].  Have a safe and happy New Year’s holiday.  We’ll see you back here in 2014!