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Canada is working to loosen its dependence on the U.S., which takes nearly all of its natural-gas exports and about 90% of its crude, as trade tensions and Middle East instability push it toward Asian buyers. Ottawa is shortening project reviews, offering full tax write-offs on new wells and pipelines, and backing a proposed West Coast oil pipeline and LNG export projects. Producers remain cautious, though. "Until they know what framework they're under, they can't make multibillion-dollar project decisions," said Novi Labs analyst Mike Dunn. A Nov. 15 deadline for government-industry agreements may bring that clarity.

Canadian natural gas storage is nearly full heading into a winter that could be unusually warm, which would weigh on already-weak western Canadian prices.

Western Canada: As of Sept. 21, RBN Energy estimated that Alberta storage stood at 501 Bcf, or about 89% full versus working gas capacity. Based on five-year average injection rates for the remainder of the injection season, RBN predicted about another 20 Bcf can go into storage. RBN Energy Managing Director, North America, Martin King told NGI there was “plenty of gas on hand for the next winter” in Western Canada, adding that the “real kicker” would be a warmer North American winter driven by a potential “super” El Niño. Meteorologists increasingly expect weak heating demand, which would make western U.S. imports of Canadian gas more important for supporting prices. The Rockies imported 3.58 Bcf of Canadian gas Wednesday, and net border flows rose to 5.12 Bcf from 4.04 Bcf on Sept. 19. NOVA/AECO C winter 2026/27 forward basis averaged -$1.772/MMBtu.

Ontario: Storage is still pulling in U.S. gas ahead of winter, with 1.54 Bcf imported from the Midwest Wednesday. King said the province’s storage should “reach very comfortable levels for the end of October.” As of Monday, RBN estimated there was 258 Bcf in Ontario storage, about 86% full and on track for 94% capacity at the end of the injection season. “All very normal for the end of October for Ontario,” King said. Dawn winter 2026/27 forward basis averaged -15.1 cents.

U.S. diesel prices hit an all-time high of $5.85 a gallon on September 4, up nearly 60 percent from a year earlier, according to AAA. Before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February, diesel averaged about $3.76 a gallon. Prices climbed as crude oil costs surged amid Middle East supply disruptions and production cuts, with most tanker traffic bottlenecked in the Strait of Hormuz. Because diesel powers the tractor-trailers that move goods and food nationwide, the record adds cost pressure on manufacturers and retailers.

A new RBN Energy report covers two Millennium Pipeline expansions that DT Midstream and TC Energy are pursuing to move more Marcellus/Utica gas toward New England, supporting Enbridge’s Project Beacon. One is already sanctioned and advancing quickly. The other is still in planning and depends on New York State approval, which is uncertain.

Oil prices climbed again in July as fighting between the U.S. and Iran resumed and hopes for a resolution faded, reviving fears of a global supply shortage. Brent crude rose nearly 4% to about $94 a barrel and U.S. crude reached $87, while U.S. gasoline topped $4 a gallon. Apollo Global Management's chief economist warned of a risk of "non-linear cascading damage" in energy markets, noting that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to near zero and that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve had dropped to its lowest level since 1983. Analysts pointed to record-wide refining margins as a sign of tightening supply: the benchmark 3-2-1 crack spread reached a record of about $23 per barrel, compared with roughly $9 a year earlier, according to RBN Energy data. One research firm argued oil could reach $150 a barrel.

Each barrel pulled from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a loan the U.S. makes to the crude oil economy.

Martin Pelletier of TriVest Wealth argues that the oil shock hasn’t ended; it has just moved out of crude prices and into other markets. Crude has eased at times thanks to China drawing on inventories and a fragmenting OPEC, with the UAE leaving the group and Saudi Arabia cutting prices to Asia. Meanwhile, refined product markets remain tight, and he points to RBN data as evidence: “RBN Energy’s 3-2-1 crack spread has been climbing above US$60 a barrel in the past couple of weeks, marking one of the highest levels on record and is clearly showing lingering stress in the system.” Since consumers pay for gasoline and diesel rather than crude, that pressure can hide inflation until it shows up in transportation costs, household budgets and corporate margins. Rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar suggest bond and currency markets are already pricing that risk. Pelletier warns investors not to declare victory on lower crude prices, since higher energy and financing costs could weigh on earnings and test whether the AI and semiconductor leaders can keep carrying the market.

The Western Canada Select discount to WTI narrowed Thursday, with July WCS at Hardisty settling $12.10/bbl below WTI, compared with $12.40 Wednesday, according to CalRock. The differential has swung with WTI since the Iran conflict began, but RBN Energy analyst Martin King said underlying demand for WCS barrels has remained strong, citing Western Canadian export pipelines that are full or nearly full and Alberta crude inventories at their lowest point for this time of year since 2017. King expects the discount to stay narrow for the rest of the year, since resolving the Strait of Hormuz closure is increasingly expected to take a long time. “This should help to keep a very solid bid under Canadian barrels,” he said. Oil prices fell about 3% Thursday on hopes that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon could lead to an end to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and a reopening of the Strait.

On April 30, President Trump signed an order granting a cross-border permit for a pipeline that would carry Canadian crude from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming, reviving parts of the cancelled Keystone XL. The project, proposed by South Bow and its U.S. partner Bridger Pipeline, could move more than 500,000 barrels of oil a day and would reuse roughly 150 km of Keystone XL pipe that has sat idle in Canada since the original project was cancelled. On the U.S. side, it would follow a new 645-mile route through eastern Montana and Wyoming. The project is still in its early stages: South Bow is seeking firm shipper commitments, and state permits and possible legal challenges remain hurdles.

Rusty Braziel, executive chairman of RBN Energy, said at the EarthX conference that global oil prices are primarily driven by geopolitical stability in the Middle East, not U.S. production. Speaking on a panel about Iran-related market disruptions, he argued that domestic drilling alone won’t significantly lower prices—any major price relief would need to come from reduced tensions in that region.

Panelists discussed whether the U.S. can shield itself from global supply shocks through increased production, infrastructure, or new technologies like nuclear energy, but emphasized that international conflicts still heavily influence energy markets and fuel prices.

The discussion comes as fuel costs in Texas have surged, with gasoline up over 36% and diesel rising more than 60% year over year. Ongoing instability, particularly around key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, continues to create uncertainty and contribute to price volatility.