Crude oil may get the headlines, but the fuels made from it have delivered some of the market’s biggest surprises of 2026. With supply disruptions, strained trade flows and compliance costs all shaping this year’s numbers, let’s look at what goes into a crack spread and what we can learn from it.
Today, we look at why high crack spreads don’t necessarily increase a refinery’s output, how market disruptions elsewhere can drain U.S. inventories, and the indicators that will help tell us whether the diesel squeeze is easing (or worsening).
Diesel is taking the wheel of the refining barrel. As discussed in today’s Tradeview Report, the benchmark 3-2-1 crack edged just $0.52/bbl higher last week to $66.36/bbl, but that modest headline move masks a much more dramatic shift underneath.
USGC refining margins strengthened again in August as surging diesel cracks pushed the 3-2-1 crack spread to an average of $65/bbl, more than two-and-a-half times its year-ago level.
For many, 2026 will be remembered as the year that diesel cracks topped the century mark ($100/bbl) for the first time, surpassing even the post-COVID boom year of 2022. Today, we examine the various factors driving this run-up and what they reveal about the broader physical refined products market.
Global prices for refined products have remained elevated for a number of reasons, with the state of Russia’s refining sector a major, if sometimes overlooked, factor. Today, we look at the conditions in Russia, how trade flows have shifted, and what a post-war recovery might look like.
Refined product prices have remained elevated this summer even as crude oil prices have fallen from their 2026 highs set just a few months ago. In today’s RBN blog, we look at several factors that help explain the seeming disconnect between product prices and crude oil prices.
USGC crack spreads are easing in April, but margins remain well above historical norms as diesel and gasoline cracks stay elevated year over year.
Winter Storm Fern drove widespread freeze offs that cut Lower 48 production by 480 Mb/d, tightened crude and distillate balances with large inventory draws, and lifted margins as diesel strength pushed the 3-2-1 crack to $24.52/bbl despite weak gasoline demand.
After a mid-November pop, USGC product cracks lost steam. Diesel led the retreat, dragging the 3-2-1 spread sharply lower as refiners head into winter.
