Last week’s U.S. crude oil market was dominated by weather driven disruptions that tightened crude and distillate balances. Winter Storm Fern triggered widespread freeze offs, cutting Lower 48 weekly average production by 480 Mb/d (see graph below) and driving a 3.46 MMbbl draw in commercial crude inventories, with exports also falling due to terminal disruptions. Refinery runs declined as winter maintenance accelerated, while cold weather sharply reduced gasoline demand but boosted distillate demand, leading to a 5.55 MMbbl draw in distillate stocks, the largest since this period last year. These shifts strengthened margins, with the 3-2-1 crack rising to $24.52/bbl, led by a 20% jump in diesel cracks even as gasoline cracks weakened. Unaccounted for crude volumes swung deeply negative, likely reflecting reporting distortions tied to the scale of weather related supply and logistics disruptions.
Featured Articles
- Analyst Insight
Refinery Utilization Hits an Eight-Year High as Product Cracks Remain Strong
As discussed in this week’s Crude Billboard, the EIA’s latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) shows how strong refinery demand and exports can quickly tighten U.S. crude balances, even as imports rise.
- Blog
Basket Case – With U.S. Refiners Already Running Hard, Relief on Diesel Remains Elusive
Today, we look at why high crack spreads don’t necessarily increase a refinery’s output, how market disruptions elsewhere can drain U.S. inventories, and the indicators that will help tell us whether the diesel squeeze is easing (or worsening).
- Blog
Double-Edged Sword – Refinery ‘Capacity Creep,’ Falling Inventories May Limit U.S. Crude Export Surge
U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.
