John Auers

There’s no shortage of work to be done to revive Venezuela’s crude oil industry, much of which suffered from years of poor management and minimal investment. One rehabilitation effort that could deliver a lot of bang for the buck would be to repair and restart the industry’s crude upgraders.

The U.S. is on the brink of a major transformation in refined products. New pipelines into the Desert Southwest and connecting out to California, along with refinery shutdowns along the West Coast, are poised to usher U.S. refiners into a new era shaped by consolidation, efficiency and market power. 

Building and expanding refineries is a challenging task involving many moving parts. But even the best projects can unravel if politics shift, the economy sours, or another “black swan” event hits.

Dangote eyes a massive expansion but still struggles to reach capacity. Dos Bocas faces steeper hurdles. New refineries worldwide keep hitting the wall as bold plans collide with tough execution.

The U.S. refining industry has undergone a number of changes in recent years and more turbulence looks likely as global economic and trade patterns shift and energy transition moves forward. For some refineries, this has led to closures due to weak profits, rising regulatory costs and declining demand for products, particularly gasoline. But other refineries have prospered — and even invested in expansions — while the U.S. industry as a whole has evolved into the most competitive system in the world. Overall, the prospects have been very regionally (and even facility) specific. As detailed in the most recent Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, this regional differentiation will continue and shift over the coming years. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what we expect for the U.S. refining industry — where closures will likely take place, where the industry might actually add capacity, and the reasons for those actions.