USGC 3-2-1 crack spreads are averaging $41.75/bbl so far for April 2026, down 5% month-over-month from March’s elevated $43.81/bbl but still up 95% from April 2025. Diesel is averaging $61.42/bbl, down 7% from March’s $65.94, and gasoline is averaging $31.91/bbl, down 3% from March’s $32.75. Despite the decline, both products remain well above year-ago levels — diesel up 164% and gasoline up 55% — indicating that refining margins, while easing, remain well above historical norms. Recent volatility may in part reflect market reactions to geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
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Double-Edged Sword – Refinery ‘Capacity Creep,’ Falling Inventories May Limit U.S. Crude Export Surge
U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.
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And the Thunder Rolls – Iran War Roils Pricing Just After U.S. E&P Returns Hit Four-Year Lows
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Chart Topper: USGC Cracks Lose Their Mid-Month Mojo
After a mid-November pop, USGC product cracks lost steam. Diesel led the retreat, dragging the 3-2-1 spread sharply lower as refiners head into winter.
