USGC 3-2-1 crack spreads are averaging $41.75/bbl so far for April 2026, down 5% month-over-month from March’s elevated $43.81/bbl but still up 95% from April 2025. Diesel is averaging $61.42/bbl, down 7% from March’s $65.94, and gasoline is averaging $31.91/bbl, down 3% from March’s $32.75. Despite the decline, both products remain well above year-ago levels — diesel up 164% and gasoline up 55% — indicating that refining margins, while easing, remain well above historical norms. Recent volatility may in part reflect market reactions to geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
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USGC 3-2-1 Crack Spread Cools but Remains Strong
The USGC 3-2-1 crack spread has cooled from its spring highs, but refining margins remain exceptionally strong. June's average crack spread is running more than 100% above year-ago levels, supported by elevated gasoline and diesel cracks.
Double-Edged Sword – Refinery ‘Capacity Creep,’ Falling Inventories May Limit U.S. Crude Export Surge
U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.
And the Thunder Rolls – Iran War Roils Pricing Just After U.S. E&P Returns Hit Four-Year Lows
The upstream oil and gas sector has been periodically roiled by dramatic price swings triggered by world events over the last five decades. Today, we analyze the impact of bottoming oil prices on earnings and cash flows as the industry girds for an unpredictable 2026.