Tariffs

U.S. Gulf Coast ethane exports were up sharply in September thanks to the startup of new export terminals in Texas. The surge in export volumes contributed to an 8% increase in ethane prices between July and September and a similar jump in the ratio between ethane and natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the recent additions to export capacity have impacted prices and review the basics of ethane economics. 

The details of a trade deal between the U.S. and China, announced June 26 by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and confirmed by China, remain sparse. Once they are finalized, the requirement for U.S. exporters to obtain a Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) license to send ethane to China should be lifted, but the effect on trade flows is already apparent. In today’s RBN blog, we review the impact of the BIS license requirement, the still-pending imposition of fees on vessels owned or operated by China, and the risk that comes with using the energy industry as a bargaining chip in trade talks. 

After dodging the huge tariffs on exports of U.S. LPG and ethane to China — at least until August 12 — a new wrinkle has emerged. Enterprise Products Partners said in a filing May 29 that the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has flagged its exports of butane and ethane to China as a security risk; specifically, that they pose an “unacceptable risk of use in or diversion to a military end use.” Details about the licenses and how they will apply are limited at this point, but it appears they will be required for these exports to continue. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the potential impact on the ethane and butane markets. 

It has been 12 months since the Trans Mountain Expansion Project — aka TMX — finally began operations after years of delay, creating a much-needed, larger conduit to move Western Canada’s rising crude oil production to the Pacific Northwest and overseas markets. Although the customer base for exports remains limited, the Trans Mountain pipeline system has been responsible for opening up entirely new markets for Canadian crude. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, despite its numerous delays and immense cost, the pipeline has recently seen record crude shipments and is nearing its nameplate capacity, driven by rising exports. 

Serious concerns about higher costs and lower demand have left the E&P sector in a delicate position since the implementation of new U.S. tariffs, as evidenced by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s recent survey of producers, who appear especially vulnerable after massive acquisition spending in 2024 to deepen and high-grade their portfolios. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore the impact of the 2024 acquisitions and commodity pricing on E&P debt and discuss the expected response to protect balance sheets. 

The Trump administration’s approach to economic policy — including tariff threats to longtime allies backed by sometimes shifting policy goals — might be a sound tactical move in the long run by keeping negotiators on edge and extracting better deals. But that approach has also heightened the sense of uncertainty about where things are headed, affecting investment and long-term planning. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how economic policy uncertainty has increased in the past few months and how it’s impacting activity in the energy sector. 

The U.S. government recently released the final rules for the Section 301 fees proposed earlier this year, intended to address the dominance of China’s shipbuilding industry. According to the new rules, exports on Chinese-owned, -operated or -built vessels are mostly excluded — great news for U.S. energy producers and exporters, especially in the NGL sector. In addition, things are starting to change in the LPG markets due to the U.S./China tariff war. Propane vessels are being diverted, at least one ethane cargo has been scrapped, and China is reportedly looking into exempting ethane from its 125% import tariff. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what the latest developments mean for the U.S. energy industry. 

The record $120 billion upstream M&A spending spree in 2024 focused on the consolidation of Permian Basin positions by the major U.S. publicly traded oil and gas companies. With crude oil prices stagnant in the $70-$80/bbl range, producers were driven to boost Tier 1 acreage and capture operational synergies to fund the generous shareholder returns demanded by their investor base. When the dust cleared at year-end, the larger E&Ps we track — plus supermajor ExxonMobil — closed or announced deals on acreage that generated about 1.5 MMboe/d of production, almost 25% of their 2023 Permian output. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll analyze what this unprecedented consolidation means for Permian production going forward. 

The North American energy landscape has undergone significant shifts in production, infrastructure and pricing for crude oil, natural gas and NGLs over the past few years and developments within Canada have strengthened its role in the global energy trade, creating opportunities and reshaping supply chains. Yet, the market is constantly changing and today geopolitics and the potential impact of tariffs weigh heavily on the relationship between Canada and the U.S., North America’s two producing heavyweights. That shifting landscape is the subject of today’s RBN blog and a topic we’ll be discussing at our upcoming School of Energy Canada, set for August 26-27 in Calgary. Fair warning, this blog includes an unabashed advertorial for the conference.  

Starting on April 10, China will enact an 84% reciprocal tariff on imports of U.S. goods. This increase was in response to the 104% tariff that the U.S. placed on imports of Chinese goods, which was subsequently raised to 125% by President Trump on April 9. China is likely to retaliate further. Unlike China’s February retaliatory tariffs of 10%-15% on U.S. oil and LNG, this time NGLs and all energy products are included. These higher tariffs have the potential to destroy propane and ethane exports from the U.S. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential impact of China’s reciprocal tariffs on the propane and ethane markets.