Most Popular Blogs of 2024

Exactly the same product. Exactly the same day. In storage very nearby. Yet their prices diverged by 17 cents per gallon — a spread equivalent to $7 per barrel. That’s a very substantial difference for prices that typically are almost indistinguishable, differing by an average of only 0.3% in recent years. The disparity roiled the financial underpinnings of exports for over a month and busted numerous inventory hedges. Is this some rare commodity? Hardly. It’s Mont Belvieu propane, the Rock of Gibraltar benchmark propane price in the U.S., and to a great extent around the world. But during October there was a crack in that rock a mile wide. 

The growing number of energy-intensive data centers coming online across the U.S. is spurring utilities to ramp up plans to add new sources of power generation but also complicating efforts to decarbonize. One of the hottest topics in energy today is how plans to restart shuttered nuclear plants and build new small modular reactors (SMRs) could help accomplish both goals. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at why data centers and nuclear power seem like a natural fit, examine which shuttered plants might be brought back to life, and outline plans by a pair of U.S. economic titans to bring new advanced reactors online. 

There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand. 

In the far western reaches of the Permian Basin lies Orla, TX — a town steeped in history and significance. Orla, which can be fittingly translated into “border” in Spanish, is about 40 miles north of Pecos, near the New Mexico border in Reeves County. Founded in 1890 as a section house for the Pecos Valley Railroad, Orla evolved from a modest stop along the tracks to a bustling oil supply hub — not your typical hub with lots of tank farms close together but still a heavy throughput area — by the 1960s. Though often considered a ghost town today, with a population thought to be in the single digits, Orla remains a vital player in the oil industry. As the origin region for several major takeaway pipelines in the Permian, this once-thriving community continues to serve as a crucial link in the region’s vast network of oil exploration, extraction and transportation, particularly along heavily traveled U.S. Highway 285. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the role that Orla plays in crude oil takeaway from the prolific Permian Basin. 

Over the past decade, the only significant growth market for U.S. crude oil and NGLs has been exports, with over 90% departing from the Gulf Coast. Exports via Gulf of Mexico ports have surged from about 1 MMb/d in 2016 to over 6 MMb/d last year. Great news for PADD 3 export facilities, right? Well, it’s not that simple. The distribution of barrels has been wildly uneven, resulting in significant winners, forlorn losers, and everything in between. And export volumes are still ramping up, as is the competition among marine terminals for crude and NGL export market share, with far-reaching consequences for producers, midstreamers and exporters. This is one of the core themes at our upcoming NACON conference, which is all about PADD 3 North American Crude Oil & NGLs and scheduled for October 24 at the Royal Sonesta Hotel in Houston. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll delve into the highly competitive liquids export landscape, consider some of the important factors driving flows one way or the other, and — fair warning — slip in some subliminal advertising for the NACON event. 

The growing number of energy-intensive data centers coming online across the U.S. is spurring utilities to ramp up their plans for adding new sources of power generation — including a slew of gas-fired plants — and also complicating their efforts to rely more on renewable resources and decarbonize the power grid. The push to quickly develop new energy infrastructure is also running into well-documented issues with permitting such projects. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the proliferation of massive data centers — many of them catering to the surge in interest in artificial intelligence (AI) — and what that means for utilities and power-related demand for natural gas. 

Faced with sustained sub-$2/MMBtu natural gas prices and dim prospects for significant gas-demand growth until sometime next year, a number of major gas-focused E&Ps have been tapping the brakes on production and trimming their planned 2024 capex. But one company — Chesapeake Energy, slated to become the U.S.’s largest gas producer thanks to a recently announced acquisition — has taken a more dramatic step, implementing a novel strategy that will slash production by 25% but leave the E&P ready to quickly ramp up its output as soon as demand and prices warrant. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review the 2024 guidance of the major U.S. gas producers and delve into the analysis of Chesapeake’s unusual approach. 

It’s been a devastating few weeks for the natural gas market. Sure, Shale Era abundance was supposed to keep gas prices from skyrocketing — and it generally has. But seriously? Henry Hub gas sinking below $2/MMBtu — and staying there, in the depths of the winter heating season? Prices have stabilized a little in recent days as a few E&Ps announced cutbacks in capex and gas-focused drilling, but gas-storage levels are abnormally high, coal-plant retirements have trimmed opportunities for coal-to-gas switching, and any significant gains in LNG exports aren’t going to happen until this time next year. With all that, you’ve gotta ask — as we do in today’s RBN blog — how low could natural gas prices go? 

The federal government’s Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (PTC), also known as 45V, provides the highest incentives for hydrogen produced using clean sources of power generation, like wind and solar. That might seem like great news for current and potential hydrogen producers looking to take advantage of the credit, since the U.S. has added significant renewable generation capacity in the last several years, but the reality is much different. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain how “additionality” fits into the “three pillars” of clean hydrogen, how it would be calculated under the proposed guidance, and some ways the rules might be adjusted to give hydrogen producers and power generators a little more flexibility. 

Around the world, a lot of smart people in the public and private sectors hold similar views on where we’re all headed, energy-wise. An accelerating shift to renewables and electric vehicles, driven by climate concerns. A not-so-far-away peak in global demand for refined products like gasoline and diesel. There are also what you might call consensus opinions on some energy-industry nuances, like how much global refining capacity will be operational in 2025 and what the spread between light and heavy crude oil will be in the years ahead. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from the new Future of Fuels report by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, including RFA’s different take on a few matters large and small — and all of critical concern to producers, refiners and marketers alike.