Ontario

As demand for data centers accelerates, developers continue to search for locations that offer the best combination of several factors, starting with the availability of uninterrupted (and affordable) power. Those variables have led to a data-center buildout in several parts of the U.S., such as Northern Virginia, Texas and California’s Silicon Valley, but Canada has its own set of positives to lure developers. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the state of data-center development in Canada, how the factors that affect site selection differ from the U.S., and how Canada is working to become a bigger player in the global market. 

Many countries like to talk about energy independence, but Canada is one of the few to come close to that elusive goal. For many years, Western Canada has produced more than enough crude oil to satisfy the demand of refineries in the region. More recently, a combination of rising Western Canadian oil production, and new and reworked pipelines, has enabled many of Canada’s eastern refineries to increase their intake of Western Canadian barrels. In the few remaining cases where they can’t, imported barrels from the U.S. have filled the gap, leaving crude imports from overseas accounting for just 1% of the market. Not surprisingly, Canada is also a net exporter of refined products, with refiners in Western Canada, and especially Atlantic Canada, producing far more than the country’s demand. Today, we conclude our series on Canada’s refining sector with a look at its growing reliance on Western Canadian crude oil and its ability to meet most of Canada’s need for gasoline and distillates.

On June 1, Energy Transfer Partners’ new Rover Pipeline began service on its market segment from northwestern Ohio into southern Michigan, effectively sending nearly 800 MMcf/d of Marcellus/Utica gas production to Vector Pipeline and its northern destinations in Michigan, and, by extension, to the Dawn Hub. This latest in-service has already shuffled flows in the region and pushed back on other supplies targeting the same markets, including Canadian gas imports. And that’s even before the project has achieved its full expected capacity of 3.25 Bcf/d. Today, we analyze the early effects of Rover’s first flows to the Michigan/Dawn markets via Vector.

Energy Transfer Partners’ 3.25-Bcf/d Rover Pipeline recently began service on its next phase — Phase 1B — opening up additional natural gas receipt points for its Mainline A and increasing westbound gas flows from the Marcellus/Utica. The project will help relieve takeaway constraints for growing gas supply in the Marcellus/Utica region, while also increasing gas-on-gas competition for supply basins targeting the Ontario and Gulf Coast markets. This latest launch brings the project closer to achieving full completion, which is expected by the end of March 2018, but volumes on Rover are already changing regional flow and pricing dynamics. Today, we provide an update on Rover’s progress.

Enbridge is investing close to $9 billion between 2013 and 2016 in its Eastern and Light Oil Market Access initiatives. A major goal is to improve access for Enbridge shippers – particularly shippers of light shale crude from North Dakota, to refineries in the Midwest and eastern Canada. And by the end of 2014 refineries in Illinois, Michigan and Ohio as well as in Ontario will have better access to Enbridge crude. But even when the reversal of Line 9 in Ontario is completed and Enbridge crude can flow as far as Montreal, only about 300 Mb/d will be available for Quebec refineries to process. Today we continue our review of Enbridge eastern expansion plans.

In 2013, refineries in Eastern Canada imported 642 Mb/d of light crude. Today there are no pipelines connecting western Canadian crude supplies to the East Coast. By the end of 2014 the Enbridge Line 9 pipeline will link Canadian supplies from Alberta and Bakken supplies from North Dakota to refineries in Montreal. By 2018 the Energy East pipeline could be flowing 1.1 MMb/d to Canada’s Atlantic Coast and beyond. Today we begin a new series on eastern Canadian transport options by reviewing existing crude supply.

Surging natural gas production volumes in the Marcellus/Utica will need to move in just about every direction. No single market—not the Northeast, the Midwest, the Southeast, or even the Gulf Coast—is big enough to absorb it all. Midstream companies are considering every cost-effective way to replumb and expand their existing pipelines to add takeaway capacity, and when still more is needed, are turning to greenfield projects. In this, the first of several company-by-company episodes on who is planning what, we examine Spectra Energy’s plans to add at least 2 Bcf/d of new Marcellus/Utica takeaway capacity by 2017, and maybe another 2 or 3 Bcf/d by the end of the decade.

Over the past two years, natural gas production from the Appalachian region has soared with growth in the Marcellus pushing total production beyond 10.5 Bcf/d.  Just next door the Utica Shale is coming into focus with attractive economics due to the natural gas liquids, crude oil and condensate production.  The looming question is natural gas takeaway capacity.  With Marcellus production continuing to grow and Utica supplies coming on, production in the Northeast will soon exceed regional consumption and will need to be moved out of the region to other markets in the U.S. and Canada.  To accomplish this, new pipelines have been proposed and reversals of existing infrastructure that was originally built to transport gas into the region are being implemented. Today we review another of the proposed projects.

Natural gas imports into the Northeast US from Canada have fallen to around 1 Bcf/d from 3 Bcf/d in 2008. Infrastructure projects are underway or planned to replace Canadian supplies with gas from rapidly expanding Marcellus and Utica production. US gas is already flowing into Ontario at Niagara and will flow into Dawn if one or more Utica gas export projects are built. . Meantime the proposed Constitution pipeline from the Eastern Marcellus to New York would replace Canadian supplies into New York on the Iroquois pipeline. Today we review the next pieces of the reversal puzzle.

Canadian natural gas exports to the Northeast US fell from about 3Bcf/d in 2008 to around 1 Bcf/d in 2011 and have been at that level ever since. Last November significant US exports began to flow northward across the border into Canada at Niagara. Natural gas demand in Ontario is forecast to reach 3.25 Bcf/d by 2020. Today we describe how projects on the Canadian side will allow Marcellus gas to replace traditional Western Canadian supplies.